Macchu Picchu Peru

Peru Economic Forecast

Peru Economic Outlook

GDP contracted in year-on-year terms in Q2 at a slightly sharper pace than in Q1. Destocking weighed on private investment, as companies lightened their warehouses following two quarters of stock accumulation. Additionally, adverse weather conditions and social unrest took a toll on activity. Available data suggests that GDP should return to growth in the current quarter. In July, the unemployment rate fell, wage growth outpaced inflation—which declined in July and August—and business sentiment improved, boding well for activity. Meanwhile, in late August, mining company Minsur announced an investment of at least USD 2 billion in the country over five years to scale up copper and tin production. In politics, in early September, President Boluarte reshuffled the cabinet for the second time in six months amid continued political instability.

Peru Inflation

Inflation came in at 5.6% in August, down from July’s 5.9%. Inflation will continue its downtrend ahead this year, curbed by previous monetary policy hikes and improved supply conditions. Upside risks stem from an expansionary fiscal stance and the threat posed to agricultural output by El Niño.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Peru from 2013 to 2022.

Peru Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 32.2 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2
GDP (USD bn) 227 232 206 226 245
GDP per capita (USD) 7,054 7,008 6,152 6,669 7,157
GDP (PEN bn) 746 776 720 876 938
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.0 4.0 -7.1 21.7 7.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 2.2 -11.0 13.3 2.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.1 2.2 -9.8 14.5 2.3
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.1 -7.3 12.1 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 3.2 -9.9 12.4 3.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.4 2.2 7.5 10.9 -3.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.4 3.3 -16.2 34.6 1.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.1 1.1 -19.7 13.2 6.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.4 1.0 -15.8 18.0 4.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 5.9 -1.7 -12.6 18.7 0.9
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.5 2.5 -13.3 17.2 3.3
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.1 6.1 13.8 7.8 7.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.7 6.6 12.8 11.3 7.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -1.6 -8.9 -2.5 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.6 26.6 34.6 35.9 33.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.9 9.1 37.7 -4.0 -32.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.2 1.9 2.0 6.4 8.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.3 2.1 1.8 4.0 7.9
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 2.6 2.2 1.8 3.8 6.5
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.2 -0.1 1.6 13.6 7.0
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.25 0.25 2.50 7.50
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.38 3.31 3.62 3.99 3.81
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.29 3.34 3.50 3.88 3.84
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -1.3 2.2 -5.1 -9.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.6 1.1 -2.2 -4.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.2 6.9 8.1 15.0 10.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 49.1 48.0 42.8 63.0 66.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 41.9 41.1 34.7 48.0 55.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.0 -2.2 -10.7 47.0 5.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.1 -1.8 -15.5 38.2 16.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.8 6.2 -0.4 5.8 11.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 60.3 68.4 74.9 78.5 72.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 17.3 20.0 25.9 19.6 15.5
External Debt (USD bn) 78.7 80.9 89.7 102.0 102.3
External Debt (% of GDP) 34.7 34.8 43.5 45.2 41.8

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