Mountains in Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

Newly released data showed that GDP grew 3.0% year on year in Q1 2023 (Q4: +3.6% yoy). A struggling energy sector, slowing manufacturing output growth and declining agricultural activity drove the moderation. Meanwhile, stronger improvement in mining and quarrying prevented a steeper deceleration. Q2 likely saw continued economic growth. Tourist arrivals rose nearly 30% year on year in April–June. Moreover, average quarterly inflation also cooled to a one-year low in Q2, and private-sector credit strengthened through June, supporting domestic demand. However, falling oil, liquified natural gas and fertilizer output in Q2 likely stalled momentum. In other news, negotiations with Venezuela on the exploitation of a gas field in its maritime territory reportedly stalled in July. Failure to reach a deal would likely cap growth prospects for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector in the medium term.

Trinidad and Tobago Inflation

In June, inflation ticked up to 5.8% (May: 5.7%). This year, the headline rate should average below last year’s on a base effect, higher projected interest rates and lower external price pressures. Stronger-than-expected economic activity and El Niño hitting food supply pose upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Trinidad and Tobago from 2013 to 2022.

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
GDP (USD bn) 24.3 23.8 21.1 24.5 27.9
GDP per capita (USD) 17,498 17,096 15,053 17,385 19,731
GDP (TTD bn) 165 161 142 165 188
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 2.1 -2.2 -11.7 16.3 14.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.1 0.8 -9.8 -1.8 4.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.9 4.3 5.7 5.4 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.8 -3.7 -11.7 -8.3 0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.9 45.3 60.0 59.9 53.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.1 0.1 10.9 -0.1 2.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 0.4 0.8 3.5 8.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.0 1.0 0.6 2.1 5.8
Repo Rate (%, eop) 5.00 5.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, eop) 6.78 6.77 6.75 6.77 6.76
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, aop) 6.76 6.76 6.75 6.76 6.75
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1.6 1.0 -1.4 2.7 5.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.7 4.3 -6.4 11.0 19.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 4.1 2.7 1.0 4.7 9.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10.8 8.8 6.0 11.1 16.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6.6 6.0 5.0 6.4 7.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 11.5 -18.5 -31.5 84.6 50.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.6 -8.8 -16.8 26.9 17.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -0.7 0.2 1.1 -1.0 -0.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 13.6 13.6 16.4 12.8 10.7

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