Mountains in Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

After cooling in Q1 year on year, GDP growth was likely resilient in subsequent quarters. April–September likely saw robust domestic demand growth on a falling unemployment rate, robust credit growth and cooling inflation. Growth in tourist arrivals also remained robust at over 20% year on year in April–October, which should have bolstered the services sector. Less positively, the oil and gas sector likely struggled in recent months, with oil output remaining in the red in April-August and average LNG output swinging into contraction in April–September. In other news, Trinidad reached a new licensing agreement with the U.S. in October and concluded an agreement with Venezuela in November to launch the Manatee gas project. The final investment decision should be made next year; if approved, the project would boost the energy sector and exports.

Trinidad and Tobago Inflation

Inflation sank to 1.3% in October (September: 3.9%) on softer price growth for food. The headline rate should average below 2023 next year on a high base effect and softer domestic activity. Shocks to global commodity markets and spiking domestic food prices due to a stronger-than-expected El Niño weather pattern are upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Trinidad and Tobago from 2013 to 2022.

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
GDP (USD bn) 24.3 23.8 21.1 24.5 27.9
GDP per capita (USD) 17,498 17,096 15,053 17,385 19,731
GDP (TTD bn) 165 161 142 165 188
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 2.1 -2.2 -11.7 16.3 14.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.1 0.8 -9.8 -1.8 4.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.9 4.3 5.7 5.4 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.9 -3.8 -12.2 -8.5 0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 41.5 46.4 62.3 61.6 51.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.1 0.1 10.9 -0.1 2.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 0.4 0.8 3.5 8.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.0 1.0 0.6 2.1 5.8
Repo Rate (%, eop) 5.00 5.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, eop) 6.78 6.77 6.75 6.77 6.76
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, aop) 6.76 6.76 6.75 6.76 6.75
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1.6 1.0 -1.4 2.7 5.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.7 4.3 -6.4 11.0 19.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 4.1 2.7 1.0 4.7 9.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10.8 8.8 6.0 11.1 16.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6.6 6.0 5.0 6.4 7.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 11.5 -18.5 -31.5 84.6 50.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.6 -8.8 -16.8 26.9 17.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -0.7 0.2 1.1 -1.0 -0.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 13.6 13.6 16.4 12.8 10.7

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