Albania

Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% in Q2 from 2.8% in Q1. Stronger domestic demand was behind the acceleration: Household and government spending and fixed capital formation all recorded faster annual increases than in the first quarter. On the flipside, exports swung from expansion to contraction. Turning to Q3, lower economic sentiment in the quarter amid subdued consumer confidence pointed to weakening activity. That said, a strong tourist season should have sustained external demand. On the fiscal front, the budget surplus more than tripled year on year in January-August, as revenue growth outpaced the increase in expenditure. In other news, in late September, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s outlook to positive while affirming its ‘B+’ rating. The agency cited a stronger-than-expected improvement in fiscal metrics and an expanding tourism sector.

Albania Inflation

Inflation dropped to 4.0% in August from 4.2% in July. The result marked the lowest reading since February 2022 and was mainly driven by softer increases in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture. Inflation will average lower in 2023 than last year, thanks to cheaper energy and easing supply chain pressures.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Albania from 2013 to 2022.

Albania Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
GDP (USD bn) 15.1 15.4 15.2 17.9 18.9
GDP per capita (USD) 5,250 5,343 5,271 6,240 6,591
GDP (EUR bn) 12.8 13.8 13.3 15.2 18.0
GDP per capita (EUR) 4,446 4,773 4,623 5,277 6,265
GDP (ALL bn) 1,637 1,692 1,647 1,856 2,134
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 3.4 -2.6 12.7 15.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 2.1 -3.3 8.9 4.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.3 -3.3 4.7 7.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.7 2.9 1.5 7.8 -4.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.3 -3.6 -1.4 19.2 6.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.0 2.6 -27.9 52.0 7.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.4 2.3 -19.8 31.5 13.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.5 3.6 -1.2 5.6 4.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.3 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -1.9 -6.7 -4.6 -3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 67.7 65.8 74.3 74.5 64.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.8 1.1 1.1 3.7 7.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 6.7
1-week Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 2.75
Exchange Rate (ALL per USD, eop) 108 109 101 107 107
Exchange Rate (ALL per USD, aop) 108 110 109 104 113
Exchange Rate (ALL per EUR, eop) 123 122 123 121 114
Exchange Rate (ALL per EUR, aop) 128 123 124 122 119
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -7.9 -8.7 -7.7 -5.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -2.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.8 -4.3
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.9
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 3.9 4.1 3.8 5.1 6.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 23.7 -8.1 -12.5 59.4 52.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 6.5 5.0 -6.8 34.9 21.7
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
International Reserves (EUR bn) 3.4 3.4 3.9 5.0 5.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.6 10.0 12.5 11.7 9.6
External Debt (EUR bn) 8.1 8.3 8.6 9.1 9.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 63.3 60.6 64.9 59.9 54.7

Free Sample Report

Interested in Albania economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest