Albania Economic Outlook
Year-on-year economic growth moderated but remained robust in Q4, restrained by a softer increase in private consumption but fueled by a faster expansion in fixed investment. Data for H1 paints a mixed picture. Tourist arrivals increased by over 50% in January-April compared with the same months of 2022. Moreover, inflation fell in the same period. That said, the trade deficit widened 2.7% in annual terms in the first four months of 2023, as exports fell more than imports. On the fiscal front, the budget surplus expanded year-on-year in the same period, as revenue growth outstripped the increase in expenditure. Meanwhile, in May, Parliament approved a 17.6% increase in the minimum wage and an increase in public sector workers’ salaries, which should support spending while potentially weighing on competitiveness and job creation ahead.
Albania Inflation
Inflation fell to 4.6% in April from 5.3% in March. The result was mainly driven by softer increases in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and hotels and restaurants as well as by a sharper fall in prices for transportation. Meanwhile, at its latest meeting on 3 May, the Central Bank held the key rate at 3.00%.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Albania from 2013 to 2022.