UAE Economic Outlook
A diversified Gulf economy with global influence:
The UAE has one of the most diversified economies in the Gulf, with a strong focus on trade, tourism, and financial services alongside its oil and gas sector. Dubai serves as a global hub for commerce, logistics, and real estate, while Abu Dhabi remains the country’s energy and investment powerhouse. This economic mix has allowed the UAE to remain resilient even amid oil price fluctuations.
Financial and tourism sectors driving growth:The UAE has positioned itself as a leading financial and investment destination, attracting multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals with its business-friendly policies and low tax rates. The tourism sector, bolstered by attractions like the Burj Khalifa, Expo 2020, and luxury resorts, continues to contribute significantly to GDP. The country has also made strides in technology, AI, and renewable energy investments.
Labor market and policy reforms:The UAE has undertaken significant labor and visa reforms to attract skilled expatriates, including long-term residency programs such as the Golden Visa. However, reliance on foreign labor, particularly in construction and services, presents challenges in balancing local employment needs with economic growth. Additionally, government initiatives to increase Emirati workforce participation in the private sector have had mixed success.
UAE’s economic outlook:The UAE economy is expected to expand steadily, supported by strong trade, tourism, and financial services. Continued investment in green energy, technology, and innovation will help reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. However, maintaining global competitiveness in a shifting economic landscape and addressing long-term workforce sustainability remain key challenges.
The UAE's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 514 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 48,136 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.2% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2020, services accounted for 58% of overall GDP, manufacturing 10%, other industrial activity 31%, and agriculture 1%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 39% of GDP in 2020, government consumption 14%, fixed investment 22%, and net exports 25%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 9% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 71%, food 4%, ores and metals 3% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 13% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 58% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 17%, food 7%, ores and metals 3% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other goods accounting for 15% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 323 billion in 2021, while total imports were USD 244 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.2% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in the UAE, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
UAE's fiscal surplus averaged 2.1% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 2.5% in the decade to 2023. For more information on UAE's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 1.5% in the decade to 2023. Go to our UAE inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
The UAE monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 4.40%, up from 1.00% a decade earlier. See our UAE monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the dirham stayed on the same level vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the dirham, click here.
Economic situation in The UAE
The economy appeared to gradually gain speed in 2024, with oil output growing later in the year after shrinking in early 2024 and much of 2023. A low base effect was the driver, with cuts to oil output agreed with OPEC+ taking effect from May 2023. Recent data for Abu Dhabi—the UAE’s largest emirate by GDP and its main oil-producing region—backs this projection. Its economy expanded 4.5% year on year in Q3, the best result since Q4 2022. Ignoring base effects, non-oil firms likely remained the economy’s dynamo. In 2025, this likely remains the case, with the non-oil sector expanding at the second-sharpest pace since May 2024 in January, according to survey data, with interest rate cuts stimulating demand and lower input costs improving competitiveness. Further supporting growth, that same month, oil output rebounded as some maintenance work was completed, according to a Reuters survey.UAE Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.50 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 22 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for UAE in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 50 economic indicators for UAE from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the UAE economy. To download a sample report on the UAE's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.