Middle East & North Africa

UAE Economic Forecast

UAE Economic Outlook

GDP growth was the highest in over a decade last year but then appeared to slow in the first six months of this year. Abu Dhabi—the largest emirate—grew roughly half as much as it did in 2022, and Dubai—the second-largest—also expanded at a weaker pace. In the second half of the year, the economy is likely cooling further. The country pumped 7.3% less crude in July–October than it did in the same period last year, after agreeing with OPEC+ earlier in the year to curb output. That said, non-oil business activity rose to the highest level in four years in October, tempering any potential slowdown. In related news, the COP28 U.N. climate summit will kick off in the UAE on 30 November, coinciding with the introduction of a number of policies by the government to reduce emissions that will likely boost the relative size of the non-oil sector ahead.

UAE Inflation

Inflation in Dubai—the second-largest emirate by GDP—rose to 4.3% in October from 3.8% in September. Meanwhile, recent data shows that, in the UAE as a whole, inflation fell to 3.6% in Q1 2023 from 4.6% in the prior quarter. In 2024, UAE inflation is set to ease from 2023 on a tougher base effect and past interest rate hikes. Commodity price spikes pose an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for UAE from 2013 to 2022.

UAE Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.6 9.9
GDP (USD bn) 427 418 349 415 507
GDP per capita (USD) 45,583 43,973 37,644 43,430 51,393
GDP (AED bn) 1,568 1,535 1,283 1,525 1,862
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.4 -2.1 -16.4 18.8 22.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 1.1 -5.0 4.4 7.9
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) 0.1 2.7 -5.4 6.5 7.2
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) 4.5 -2.6 -3.8 -1.1 9.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.1 10.0 -12.5 - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.0 10.0 0.7 - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.6 0.0 5.8 - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.5 -1.3 -7.0 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.9 -5.5 -6.4 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.3 -0.8 -2.8 2.6 8.5
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 2.98 3.08 2.80 2.72 3.07
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.2 2.3 4.3 3.1 2.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 3.8 2.6 -2.5 4.0 9.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 21.3 26.8 41.1 35.9 30.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 2.5 8.0 4.6 5.7 9.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.1 -1.6 -2.2 2.3 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.1 -2.0 -2.1 0.2 4.8
Base Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.00 1.25 1.50 4.40
Stock Market (ann. var. of DFM %) 11.7 3.3 -0.6 68.2 20.3
Exchange Rate (AED per USD, eop) 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 40.5 37.3 21.1 48.0 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 9.5 8.9 6.0 11.6 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 85.6 80.4 60.3 79.0 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 321 314 272 323 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 235 233 212 244 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.4 -2.3 -13.3 18.8 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 1.2 -0.9 -9.2 15.3 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 10.4 17.9 19.9 20.7 22.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 99 107 103 128 134
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.3 -

Free Sample Report

Interested in UAE economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest