Mongolia typical architecture

Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

The economy expanded 5.4% year on year in Q2, down from 7.9% growth in Q1. Looking at expenditure components, private and public spending gained steam, while fixed investment growth slowed. Export growth also eased but remained elevated at 95%, buoyed by stronger visitor arrivals and mining sales to China. Turning to Q3, economic activity likely remains robust. In July–August, production of coal more than doubled in annual terms, while copper output also rose; together, copper and coal account for over half of Mongolia’s total exports. In addition, tourist numbers continued to increase in the same two-month period, while higher fiscal spending on wages and pensions should be supporting domestic demand over the quarter as a whole. That said, lower iron and gold output in July–August, together with double-digit interest rates, will be capping the overall economic expansion.

Mongolia Inflation

Inflation rose to 10.0% in August from 9.2% in July, thus remaining above the Central Bank’s 4.0–8.0% target range. Inflation will average lower this year than last on softer international commodity prices. However, it is still forecast to average in double digits, boosted by strong economic growth, a loose fiscal stance, a recovery in tourist arrivals and a higher minimum wage.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mongolia from 2013 to 2022.

Mongolia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
GDP (USD bn) 13.2 14.3 13.3 15.3 17.1
GDP per capita (USD) 4,083 4,324 3,961 4,478 4,947
GDP (MNT tn) 32.6 37.8 37.5 43.6 53.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 16.3 16.1 -1.0 16.3 23.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.7 5.6 -4.6 1.6 5.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 11.7 5.8 2.1 -5.9 8.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 12.3 14.6 9.2 6.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 31.8 14.0 -21.1 17.7 13.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.1 12.0 -5.3 -14.6 32.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 32.7 8.6 -15.5 13.6 29.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.7 10.0 7.0 8.2 6.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.9 1.0 -9.2 -3.0 0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 90.7 79.2 97.4 79.7 82.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 22.8 8.2 16.2 13.8 6.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.8 7.3 3.7 7.0 15.2
Policy Rate (%, eop) 11.00 11.00 6.00 6.00 13.00
Exchange Rate (MNT per USD, eop) 2,644 2,734 2,850 2,849 3,445
Exchange Rate (MNT per USD, aop) 2,474 2,664 2,813 2,849 3,142
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.2 -2.2 -0.7 -2.1 -2.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -16.7 -15.2 -5.1 -13.8 -13.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 6.6 7.2 7.0 8.1 9.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 5.9 6.0 5.2 6.8 8.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.4 9.6 -2.7 16.4 21.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 35.5 2.4 -13.1 29.2 27.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.2 2.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 3.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.2 8.7 10.4 7.7 4.7
External Debt (USD bn) 29.8 31.6 32.4 33.9 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 225 222 243 222 -

Free Sample Report

Interested in Mongolia economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest