A boat on the beach in Ghana

Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

The economy likely cooled in the second quarter. In Q2, exports fell by more than in Q1 and private credit growth experienced a sharp deceleration. Additionally, April’s high inflation and fiscal consolidation capped domestic demand. That said, the average private-sector PMI for Q2 surpassed that of Q1. In Q3, the economy is set to remain downbeat, with the PMI remaining roughly stable in July-August compared to Q2. High inflation should be continuing to limit household demand, and the external sector is likely still underperforming. Furthermore, private credit growth may have slowed further amid high interest rates. In other news, the government reached 95% of its end-September target by exchanging USD 4 billion of domestic debt with creditors in late August. This increases its likelihood of securing the next tranche of IMF funding—worth USD 600 million—in the coming months.

Ghana Inflation

Inflation fell to 40.1% in August (July: 43.1%), surprising markets on the downside. The reduction of price pressures was broad-based. Inflation should ease later this year from current levels thanks to an increasingly challenging base of comparison. However, sharper-than-expected FX depreciation and premature monetary policy easing are upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ghana from 2013 to 2022.

Ghana Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1
GDP (USD bn) 65.8 66.6 68.3 78.0 67.5
GDP per capita (USD) 2,225 2,208 2,220 2,484 2,105
GDP (GHS bn) 309 357 392 462 610
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 17.4 15.5 9.9 17.8 32.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.2 6.5 0.5 5.1 3.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.7 7.3 2.1 7.2 3.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 14.2 1.7 6.2 4.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 5.4 10.1 12.7 0.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 13.2 -10.0 1.8 5.8 0.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.6 12.7 -12.8 -1.2 0.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.0 15.9 -8.8 5.8 1.4
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 10.5 6.4 -2.5 -0.5 0.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -7.5 -17.4 -12.1 -9.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 62.0 58.3 72.3 79.6 88.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 16.1 15.8 35.1 11.9 27.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9.4 6.2 10.5 12.6 54.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 9.8 8.4 8.7 10.0 31.9
BOG Policy Rate (%, eop) 17.00 16.00 14.50 14.50 27.00
Exchange Rate (GHS per USD, eop) 4.86 5.70 5.87 6.18 10.20
Exchange Rate (GHS per USD, aop) 4.69 5.35 5.74 5.92 9.04
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 -1.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -2.8 -3.1 -3.3 -2.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 2.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 14.9 15.7 14.5 14.7 17.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 13.1 13.4 12.4 13.6 14.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.0 4.9 -7.6 1.8 18.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 3.8 2.1 -7.3 9.7 7.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.9 3.3 1.3 2.4 1.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.0 8.4 8.6 9.7 6.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.4 7.5 8.3 8.5 5.1
External Debt (USD bn) 23.6 27.1 31.9 36.2 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 35.9 40.7 46.7 46.4 -

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