South Africa

South Africa Economic Forecast

South Africa Economic Outlook

Our panel largely expects the economy to have stagnated in sequential terms in the third quarter, slowing from Q2’s 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion. The ongoing port and railway crisis—preventing the country from cashing in on demand for its minerals—the severe power supply crisis and the shortage of skilled workers are restraining activity. In the fiscal arena, authorities presented the mid-term FY 2024 budget (MTBPS) on 1 November; the plan sees higher taxes, trimmed spending and ramped-up borrowing. The fiscal deficit will widen more than anticipated over the next three years on lower tax revenue, and public debt will peak in FY 2026 at a higher 77.7% of GDP. A fifth of public revenue will go towards debt interest repayment. Ahead of the 2024 general elections, the MTBPS extends monthly welfare payments until March 2025 and confirms the promised state employees’ wage increase.

South Africa Inflation

In September, inflation accelerated to a three-month high of 5.4% (August: 4.8%), largely in line with expectations. Conversely, core inflation eased to 4.5% (August: 4.8%). Despite the headline’s pickup, inflation remained within the South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB)’s 3.0–6.0% target band. Average inflation should return to the mid-point of the target range in Q4 2024.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for South Africa from 2013 to 2022.

South Africa Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 57.9 58.8 59.6 60.1 60.6
GDP (USD bn) 405 389 338 420 405
GDP per capita (USD) 6,987 6,625 5,676 6,980 6,681
GDP (ZAR bn) 5,363 5,625 5,568 6,209 6,629
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 4.9 -1.0 11.5 6.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.6 0.3 -6.0 4.7 1.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.0 1.1 -7.8 5.0 3.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 1.3 -6.1 5.8 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 1.8 0.9 0.5 1.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -1.2 -1.7 -14.6 0.6 4.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.7 -3.3 -12.0 9.1 7.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.5 0.6 -17.6 9.6 14.9
Manufacturing production (ann. var. %) 1.0 -1.1 -12.3 6.0 -0.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.4 1.6 -6.9 6.5 1.8
Wages (ann. var. %) 4.9 4.1 0.9 7.3 3.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 27.1 28.7 29.2 34.3 33.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -6.1 -9.8 -5.1 -4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 51.5 56.1 68.8 68.8 71.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.5 4.0 3.1 5.9 7.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 4.1 3.3 4.6 6.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.4 4.6 2.5 7.1 14.4
SARB Repo Rate (%, eop) 6.75 6.50 3.50 3.75 7.00
3-Month JIBAR (%, eop) 7.61 7.16 3.87 3.85 6.50
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 9.44 9.02 9.70 9.82 11.30
Stock Market (ann. var. of JSE %) -11.4 8.2 4.1 24.1 -0.9
Exchange Rate (ZAR per USD, eop) 14.39 13.98 14.69 15.96 17.02
Exchange Rate (ZAR per USD, aop) 13.25 14.45 16.45 14.79 16.37
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -11.9 -10.1 6.6 15.3 -1.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.6 1.9 3.7 -0.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.0 2.5 17.5 30.2 13.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 94.3 90.0 84.7 121.5 123.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 92.3 87.5 67.2 91.3 109.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.4 -4.6 -5.9 43.5 1.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.8 -5.2 -23.2 35.9 19.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 5.4 5.1 3.1 40.9 9.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 50.4 47.5 42.3 54.0 55.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.6 6.5 7.6 7.1 6.1
External Debt (USD bn) 173 185 170 161 164
External Debt (% of GDP) 42.6 47.6 50.4 38.2 40.6

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