The museum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar

Qatar Economic Forecast

Qatar Economic Outlook

Economic growth ebbed to 2.7% year on year in the first quarter according to recent data. The energy sector drove the expansion, while the non-oil sector slowed sharply from Q4 as the World Cup which took place in the country ended in December. Turning to Q2, monthly industrial production data through May suggests that growth in the energy sector slowed. In contrast, PMI readings through June point to an acceleration in non-oil private sector activity. In particular, firms in the hospitality industry likely benefited from the more than doubling of visitor arrivals in annual terms. In other news, in July Qatar inked a ten-year deal to provide condensate to a state-owned UAE firm. This is the latest in a string of long-term energy supply agreements reached over the last year, and is a sign of warming relations between Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council, after the latter lifted its embargo in 2021.

Qatar Inflation

Inflation fell to 3.1% in July from 3.2% in June. The Central Bank hiked rates from 6.00% to 6.25% in late July, following the Federal Reserve’s same-sized hike. Panelists see inflation moderating on average this year from last on tighter monetary policy, the end of the World-Cup-related demand surge and lower commodity prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Qatar from 2013 to 2022.

Qatar Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7
GDP (USD bn) 183 176 144 180 236
GDP per capita (USD) 66,407 62,993 53,787 68,608 88,472
GDP (QAR bn) 667 642 526 654 861
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.8 -3.8 -18.1 24.4 31.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 0.8 -3.6 1.6 4.3
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -0.3 -1.8 -1.9 -0.3 1.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.9 -10.5 - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.5 8.3 4.4 - -
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 7.1 1.5 -10.4 - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.2 -2.2 -1.5 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 1.9 -8.9 - -
Industry (ann. var. %) 0.8 -1.4 -3.2 0.7 1.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 1.1 -2.0 0.2 10.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.2 62.1 72.6 58.4 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -6.5 2.5 3.8 1.4 17.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 -0.7 -2.8 2.3 5.0
Overnight Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.00 4.25 2.50 2.50 5.50
Exchange Rate (QAR per USD, eop) 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 16.6 4.3 -3.6 26.3 63.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 9.1 2.4 -2.5 14.6 26.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 51.0 41.6 27.1 60.3 97.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 84.3 72.9 51.5 87.2 130.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 33.3 31.3 24.4 26.9 33.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 25.0 -13.5 -29.4 69.3 50.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.3 -5.9 -22.3 10.2 24.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 30.4 39.7 41.0 42.2 47.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.9 15.2 20.2 18.9 17.0

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