The museum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar

Qatar Economic Forecast

Qatar Economic Outlook

After expanding in the first quarter, GDP likely grew at a solid rate again in Q2. The energy sector slowed from the prior quarter, but the non-energy sector seemed to gain pace. The data available for Q3 so far suggest a similarly modest expansion. Energy production contracted year on year in August for the first time since January, before growing moderately in September. In addition, the government issued fewer construction permits in the quarter compared to the same period a year ago, likely knocked by higher interest rates and the end of the FIFA World Cup. More positively, non-oil business activity rose sharply compared to the prior quarter, according to PMI data. Moreover, visitor arrivals soared 78% yoy to rise well above pre-pandemic levels, pointing to heightened activity in the hospitality sector.

Qatar Inflation

Inflation rose to 2.5% in October from 1.8% in September. In 2024, average inflation is projected to cool from this year on recent interest rate hikes and a tougher base effect. That said, the Qatar riyal’s peg to the U.S. dollar will apply upward pressure, given that the dollar is set to depreciate ahead. The possible introduction of VAT poses an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Qatar from 2013 to 2022.

Qatar Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8
GDP (USD bn) 183 176 144 180 237
GDP per capita (USD) 66,407 62,993 50,941 65,363 83,714
GDP (QAR bn) 667 642 526 654 863
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.8 -3.8 -18.1 24.4 32.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 0.7 -3.6 1.6 4.7
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -0.3 -1.7 -2.0 -0.3 1.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.9 -10.5 - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.5 8.3 4.4 - -
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 7.1 1.5 -10.4 - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.2 -2.2 -1.5 - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 1.9 -8.9 - -
Industry (ann. var. %) 0.8 -1.6 -3.0 0.7 2.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 1.1 -2.0 0.2 10.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.2 62.1 72.6 58.4 42.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -6.5 2.5 3.8 1.4 17.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 -0.7 -2.8 2.3 5.0
Overnight Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.00 4.25 2.50 2.50 5.50
Exchange Rate (QAR per USD, eop) 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 16.6 4.3 -3.6 26.3 63.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 9.1 2.4 -2.5 14.6 26.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 51.0 41.6 27.1 60.3 97.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 84.3 72.9 51.5 87.2 130.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 33.3 31.3 24.4 26.9 33.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 25.0 -13.5 -29.4 69.3 50.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.3 -5.9 -22.3 10.2 24.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 30.4 39.7 41.0 42.2 47.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.9 15.2 20.2 18.9 17.0

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