The skyline in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Outlook

Annual economic growth eased to 0.1% in January–April from 0.4% in January–March. The slowdown was mainly driven by weaker retail activity. Moreover, fixed investment growth waned markedly. On the flip side, industrial production in the non-oil-and-gas sector strengthened, while the downturn in overall industrial output softened. Growth is likely to remain subdued during the remainder of Q2 due to a tough base and higher interest rates. In other news, the country made significant progress on peace talks with Armenia recently. During May, authorities met in separate meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, European Council President Michel and President Putin of Russia. These discussions led Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. This may lead to a permanent peace deal and, as a result, increased regional stability and trade.

Azerbaijan Inflation

Inflation came in at 12.9% in April, down from March’s 13.7%. Inflation is forecast to ease further in the coming months as the effect of recent interest rate hikes is increasingly felt. However, it is still forecast to average above the Central Bank’s 2.0–6.0% target band this year.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Azerbaijan from 2013 to 2022.

Azerbaijan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1
GDP (USD bn) 40.7 46.9 48.1 42.6 54.6
GDP per capita (USD) 4,153 4,743 4,815 4,233 5,397
GDP (EUR bn) 36.1 39.7 43.0 37.5 46.2
GDP per capita (EUR) 3,678 4,006 4,303 3,721 4,563
GDP (AZN bn) 70.1 79.8 81.7 72.4 92.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 16.9 13.8 2.4 -11.3 28.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 1.4 2.5 -4.2 5.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -3.4 1.5 1.8 -5.0 5.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.5 3.0 3.6 -1.3 3.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 4.9 4.8 6.4 6.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 5.4 9.0 -6.7 4.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 22.5 18.7 17.7 21.3 26.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 12.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 6.7
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 15.00 9.75 7.50 6.25 7.25
Exchange Rate (AZN per USD, eop) 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Exchange Rate (AZN per USD, aop) 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Exchange Rate (AZN per EUR, eop) 2.04 1.94 1.90 2.09 1.93
Exchange Rate (AZN per EUR, aop) 1.94 2.01 1.90 1.94 2.01
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1.7 6.1 4.4 -0.2 8.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.1 12.9 9.1 -0.5 15.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 6.1 9.8 8.5 2.5 11.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 15.2 20.8 19.9 12.6 21.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.0 11.0 11.3 10.1 10.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.7 37.2 -4.5 -36.6 72.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 0.4 21.2 3.5 -11.1 3.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.9 1.4 1.5 0.5 -1.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.6 8.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.9 7.3 7.5 9.1 9.6
External Debt (USD bn) 15.3 16.2 15.8 15.8 14.6
External Debt (% of GDP) 37.6 34.5 33.0 37.1 26.8

Free Sample Report

Interested in Azerbaijan economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest