Swiss housing on the lake with mountains in switzerland

Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

Our panel forecasts a virtual stagnation in Swiss activity in Q3 for the second consecutive quarter. While private consumption likely expanded, aided by low inflation and unemployment rates, a projected decrease in public spending and rebounding imports likely weighed on momentum. Turning to Q4, our Consensus is for economic growth to be minimal in quarter on quarter and annual terms. Looking at available data, the October PMI surveys of private businesses suggest that the service sector performed better than the more export-oriented manufacturing sector, though both indices declined when compared to the previous month. Similarly, the KOF Economic Barometer dipped further below the long-term average of 100 in October, pointing to a moderate near-term outlook for the Swiss economy.

Switzerland Inflation

Inflation was stable at September’s 1.7% in October, in line with the Central Bank’s target of less than 2.0%. A softer fall in transport prices perfectly offset lower food and housing price pressures. Inflation should cool in 2024, on past Central Bank rate hikes, slow wage growth, low inflation expectations and lower average commodity prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Switzerland from 2013 to 2022.

Switzerland Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7
GDP (USD bn) 725 722 741 812 819
GDP per capita (USD) 85,485 84,470 86,129 93,656 93,664
GDP (EUR bn) 615 645 650 687 779
GDP per capita (EUR) 72,453 75,466 75,552 79,227 89,109
GDP (CHF bn) 710 717 696 742 782
GDP per capita (CHF) 83,656 83,945 80,845 85,626 89,443
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.7 1.1 -3.0 6.7 5.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.9 1.2 -2.3 5.4 2.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.7 1.1 -1.9 2.3 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.7 1.2 -3.4 1.8 4.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.8 3.8 3.3 -0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.9 -1.4 2.8 1.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.3 -0.6 -5.6 13.6 6.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.7 0.3 -3.0 5.6 6.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.9 4.5 -3.9 8.9 6.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 0.8 1.0 1.4 4.6 -0.1
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 1.7 1.8 2.9 0.3 5.1
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.5 1.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.5 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 1.3 -3.0 -0.3 0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.1 25.5 28.2 27.1 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.5 0.1 6.0 1.5 -3.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.7 0.2 -0.8 1.5 2.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.9 0.4 -0.7 0.6 2.8
SNB Policy Rate (%, eop) -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 1.00
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) -0.15 -0.46 -0.53 -0.13 1.57
Stock Market (ann. var. of Swiss Market Index, %) -10.2 26.0 0.8 20.3 -16.7
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, eop) 0.99 0.97 0.88 0.91 0.93
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, aop) 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.95
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, eop) 1.13 1.09 1.08 1.04 0.99
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, aop) 1.15 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.00
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 40.9 28.4 3.3 72.0 81.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.6 3.9 0.4 8.9 9.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 72.3 71.4 63.4 116.3 120.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -101 -83 -50 -88 13

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