Swiss housing on the lake with mountains in switzerland

Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

After GDP growth of 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1, available data suggests that the economy slowed in Q2 amid rising domestic interest rates. PMI data for the second quarter pointed to a loss of momentum in both the manufacturing and services sectors, with the former likely tied to soft external demand. However, rock-bottom unemployment and mild inflation by European standards should have stemmed the slowdown. Turning to Q3, available signs are downbeat, with surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and services industries recording the worst readings in years in July. That said, the ongoing strength of the labor market and the continued fall in inflation through July likely continued to act as economic lifelines.

Switzerland Inflation

Inflation ticked down to 1.6% in July from June’s 1.7%, meeting the Central Bank’s target of below 2%. Inflation remains muted compared to neighbors, with Euro area inflation clocking 5.3% in July. Inflation is forecast to average below 2% for the remainder of the year, with the recent uptick in oil prices largely offset by tighter monetary policy.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Switzerland from 2013 to 2022.

Switzerland Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.7 0.3 -3.0 5.6 6.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.3 -0.6 -5.6 13.6 6.3
Population (million) 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7
GDP (USD bn) 725 722 741 812 818
GDP per capita (USD) 85,484 84,469 86,138 93,658 93,647
GDP (EUR bn) 615 645 650 687 779
GDP per capita (EUR) 72,453 75,464 75,560 79,229 89,093
GDP (CHF bn) 710 717 696 742 782
GDP per capita (CHF) 83,655 83,943 80,854 85,628 89,427
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.7 1.1 -3.0 6.7 5.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.9 1.2 -2.3 5.4 2.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.7 1.1 -1.9 2.3 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.7 1.2 -3.4 1.8 4.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.8 3.8 3.3 -0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.9 -1.4 2.8 1.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.8 4.4 -3.7 8.9 6.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 0.8 1.0 1.4 4.6 -0.1
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 1.7 1.8 2.6 1.4 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.5 1.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.5 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 1.3 -3.0 -0.5 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.1 25.5 28.2 - -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.5 0.1 6.0 1.5 -3.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.7 0.2 -0.8 1.5 2.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.9 0.4 -0.7 0.6 2.8
SNB Policy Rate (%, eop) -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 1.00
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) -0.15 -0.46 -0.53 -0.13 1.57
Stock Market (ann. var. of Swiss Market Index, %) -10.2 26.0 0.8 20.3 -16.7
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, eop) 0.99 0.97 0.88 0.91 0.93
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, aop) 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.95
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, eop) 1.13 1.09 1.08 1.04 0.99
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, aop) 1.15 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.00
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 40.9 28.4 3.3 72.0 81.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.6 3.9 0.4 8.9 9.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 72.3 71.4 63.4 116.3 120.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -101 -83 -50 -88 13

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