ASEAN Economic Outlook
The regional economy should grow more slowly in 2023 compared to 2022, as China’s lackluster recovery and the global tech sector downturn hit exports. Sticky inflation and higher interest rates will cap domestic activity, while recovering tourist inflows and a strong fiscal impulse should aid momentum. A stronger-than-expected El Niño weather event remains a downside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 2.9% in July (June: 3.2%) on lower price pressures in all ASEAN economies except Thailand and Vietnam. Available data suggests ASEAN inflation rose in August. 2023’s headline rate should average lower than in 2022 on softer GDP growth and tighter monetary conditions. Currency depreciation and food price spikes due to El Niño pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2019.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.9 | -2.0 | -6.5 | -4.8 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 47.2 | 48.5 | 58.8 | 61.1 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| SELIC Rate (%, eop) | 4.77 | 4.12 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 867 | 917 | 1,074 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 83.3 | 81.8 | 90.8 | 89.1 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,364 | 1,327 | 1,208 | 1,540 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,490 | 1,467 | 1,433 | 1,776 | - |
| Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) | 7,339 | 7,293 | 7,546 | 7,645 | 8,472 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,620 | 4,848 | 4,556 | 4,974 | 5,296 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.2 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 3.6 | 5.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 5.4 | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.2 | 2.9 | - | - | - |