ASEAN Economic Outlook
Growth will rise above 2023’s level and the prior 10-year average in 2024 on improvements in exports and investment; the global electronics sector upturn will aid momentum. However, sluggish activity in China and elevated interest rates will cap activity somewhat. Geopolitical clashes are a downside risk, while stronger-than-expected U.S. growth is an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
In May, ASEAN inflation rose to a nine-month high as price pressures picked up in a majority of countries. Available data points to disinflation returning in June. Regional inflation will hover near May levels in the rest of 2024 but below 2023’s rate this year as a whole on previous monetary policy tightening. Commodity price shocks are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,959 | 4,674 | 5,084 | 5,434 | 5,568 |
| 3.3 | -8.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -2.7 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,431 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,549 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.2 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.4 | 60.9 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 4.13 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | - |
| 5.2 | -4.0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 |