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ASEAN Economic Forecast

ASEAN Economic Outlook

The Consensus is for GDP growth in ASEAN to rise from 2023’s levels in 2024 on stronger tourism activity, lower inflation and interest rates, and the rebound of the global tech sector. Nevertheless, muted activity in China and the El Niño weather event will pose headwinds to growth. Weaker-than-expected external demand and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.

ASEAN Inflation

In December, ASEAN inflation fell to 2.6% from November’s 2.7% on disinflation in key regional economies, including heavyweight Indonesia. Available data points to price pressures easing further in January. Inflation should average less in 2024 than in 2023 on a high base effect and the delayed impact of monetary policy tightening. Shocks to food supply are an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2022.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP per capita (USD) 4,963 4,679 5,089 5,438 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 -3.8 3.9 5.6 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.4 - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.9 - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.1 -3.1 6.1 5.4 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.5 5.2 4.8 - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -6.5 -4.6 -2.7 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.3 58.3 60.9 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.2 2.1 - -
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 4.13 2.79 2.69 4.55 -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 7,282 7,542 7,618 8,393 8,473
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.7 3.7 2.1 - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1,466 1,430 1,773 - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 1,332 1,213 1,549 - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 919 1,077 1,167 - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 81.9 91.0 89.0 81.6 -

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