ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s economy is set to slow this year from 2024, chiefly on softer exports growth amid the rise in global trade protectionism instigated by the U.S. However, monetary policy easing will cushion domestic demand. Higher-than-anticipated U.S. tariffs on ASEAN are a downside risk, while stronger-than-expected Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
ASEAN inflation has been muted by global standards so far this year at 1–2%, kept in check by relatively stable regional currencies, competent policymaking, large inflows of cheap Chinese goods, and sizable domestic manufacturing capacity. These same factors will keep inflation mild by global standards for the remainder of 2025.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,774 | 2,044 | 1,893 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.8 | -2.8 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.56 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.2 | 60.7 | 63.3 | 64.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | - |