ASEAN Economic Outlook
The Iran war has hit ASEAN’s economic outlook, with GDP growth now set to plumb a three-year low in 2026—the region is heavily exposed to energy price spikes due to its reliance on Middle Eastern imports. Still, tailwinds will come from resilient tourism and the AI boom, with the latter boosting demand for semiconductors—a key regional export.
ASEAN Inflation
In May, regional inflation was the strongest since 2023, as price pressures rose in most ASEAN members amid the Iran war. Inflation should hit a three-year high in 2026 due to weaker currencies, rising energy costs and the El Niño weather event. Still, price pressures will be less than the global average. Higher-for-longer energy prices are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,640 | 1,775 | 1,987 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 263 | 253 | 278 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,126 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,028 | 2,265 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.5 | 65.5 | 66.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,193 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |