ASEAN Economic Outlook
Strong government spending, electronics demand and tourism activity will boost ASEAN’s economy this year. Our Consensus is for growth to be above 2023 levels and the prior 10-year average. However, muted Chinese activity and high interest rates will cap momentum. Geopolitical turmoil is a downside risk, and higher-than-expected U.S. growth is an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
In June, ASEAN inflation declined from May’s nine-month high as price pressures eased in virtually all countries. Available data points to a potential inflation uptick in July. ASEAN’s inflation will average below 2023’s rate this year on the delayed impact of previous interest rate hikes. Commodity price shocks and weaker-than-expected currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,959 | 4,674 | 5,084 | 5,434 | 5,568 |
| 3.3 | -8.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.2 | -6.3 | -4.4 | -2.7 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,431 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,549 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.2 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.4 | 60.9 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 4.13 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | - |
| 5.2 | -4.0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 |