ASEAN Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for GDP growth to plumb a three-year low in 2026, as the Iran energy crisis dampens household spending, while higher U.S. tariffs and global supply chain shocks stifle export growth. That said, the global AI upcycle should support manufacturing and shipments of electronics, keeping GDP growth significantly above the global average.
ASEAN Inflation
In July, inflation cooled in all ASEAN economies, barring Laos and Singapore. Still, regional inflation remained among the highest in recent years due to prolonged spillovers from the Iran war, which should push full-year regional inflation in 2026 to a three-year high. Weaker regional currencies and the El Niño weather event will add further upside pressure.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.6 | 63.0 | 64.6 | 65.4 | 66.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,194 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,773 | 2,045 | 1,903 | 2,028 | 2,266 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 222 | 262 | 263 | 253 | 279 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,783 | 1,640 | 1,775 | 1,987 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,126 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.85 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |