Brunei Economic Outlook
A wealthy oil-based economy:
Brunei, a small but affluent Southeast Asian nation, derives much of its wealth from vast oil and natural gas reserves. The hydrocarbon sector accounts for around 60% of GDP and more than 90% of government revenue, making Brunei one of the richest countries in the region on a per capita basis. However, the economy remains highly dependent on energy exports, exposing it to fluctuations in global oil prices. The government has sought to diversify economic activity in recent years, but progress has been slow.
Energy dominance and diversification challenges:Brunei’s oil and gas reserves have long supported a generous welfare state, with citizens enjoying subsidized healthcare, education, and housing. However, declining oil production and lower energy prices have led to stagnation in GDP growth. In response, the government has promoted economic diversification through its Wawasan 2035 vision, focusing on sectors such as halal manufacturing, tourism, financial services, and technology. While foreign investment in these areas has increased, hydrocarbons still overwhelmingly drive the economy.
Trade and investment climate:Brunei is a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the ASEAN Economic Community, which provide opportunities for trade and investment. Despite a business-friendly tax environment—with no personal income tax—foreign investment remains limited due to bureaucratic red tape and a small domestic market. Brunei has also strengthened economic ties with China, which is investing in infrastructure and energy projects in the country.
Brunei economic forecasts:Brunei’s short-term growth prospects remain tied to oil and gas prices, but long-term sustainability depends on successful diversification. If the government accelerates reforms and attracts foreign investment into non-energy sectors, Brunei’s economy could strengthen. However, without significant diversification, the country risks economic stagnation as its oil reserves deplete.
Brunei's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 15.1 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 33,470 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 0.3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 39% of overall GDP, manufacturing 19%, other industrial activity 41%, and agriculture 1%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 28% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 23%, fixed investment 30%, and net exports 19%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 22% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 77%, food 0%, ores and metals 0% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 27% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 64%, food 8%, ores and metals 0% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other goods accounting for 1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 11 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 7 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded an average annual decrease of 0.3% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Brunei, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Brunei's fiscal deficit averaged 6.3% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 7.0% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Brunei's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 0.5% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Brunei inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Brunei's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 5.50%, on the same level as a decade earlier. See our Brunei monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the Brunei dollar weakened by 7.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the Brunei dollar, click here.
Economic situation in Brunei
Annual economic growth remained stable at Q2’s 6.0% in Q3. Private consumption continued to expand robustly at Q2’s pace—bolstered by falling consumer prices—and fixed investment contracted less than in the prior quarter. These results were offset by decelerating government spending and the worst contraction in exports of goods and services since 2016; yearly growth in natural gas production nosedived roughly threefold, and liquified natural gas (LNG) output growth lost steam from Q2, outweighing accelerating activity in the oil sector. Turning to Q4, merchandise exports fell at a sharper pace in October than in Q3 as the production of oil, LNG and natural gas flatlined on an annual basis. More positively, declining prices in October–November should have buttressed private spending.Brunei Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.36 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 6 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Brunei in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 36 economic indicators for Brunei from a panel of 6 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Brunei economy. To download a sample report on the Brunei's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.