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Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Outlook

In Q1 2023, the statistical office expects GDP to have grown 3.4% thanks to rains in December boosting agricultural output. Nonetheless, available data is mixed. Although inflation accelerated in Q1 compared to Q4, boding poorly for consumer spending, industrial production rose in Q1 compared to Q4, according to a business survey conducted by the Central Bank. Turning to Q2—the middle of harvest season—the country continues to suffer from a months-long drought. According to the European Commission, the drought means that barley and wheat yields will be nearly 20% lower this year than in the past five years. This poor harvest will severely knock agricultural output and stoke inflation in the quarter. In response, in early May, the government raised spending on its water and irrigation program to USD 14.3 billion, focusing on boosting the supply of drinking water and constructing desalination plants.

Morocco Inflation

Inflation decelerated to 7.8% in April from 8.2% in March. Inflation should continue to ease on average this year as rate hikes kick in and the base effect toughens. The extension of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal until mid-July should provide further relief. Key factors to watch include commodity prices and this year’s harvest.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Morocco from 2013 to 2022.

Morocco Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 34.9 35.2 35.6 36.0 36.3
GDP (USD bn) 110 118 129 121 142
GDP per capita (USD) 3,142 3,353 3,623 3,377 3,903
GDP (MAD bn) 1,063 1,108 1,240 1,152 1,275
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.9 4.3 11.9 -7.0 10.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 3.1 2.7 -7.2 8.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.4 2.2 -5.6 8.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 3.7 4.8 -0.5 5.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.4 1.7 -10.0 9.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.8 3.8 5.1 -15.0 8.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 4.8 2.1 -11.9 11.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.9 2.3 -6.3 6.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.3 9.6 9.2 11.9 12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -3.4 -3.6 -7.1 -5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 65.1 65.2 60.3 72.2 69.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.4 5.5 5.9 10.2 6.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.6 0.2 1.1 -0.3 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.4
Key Rate (%, eop) 2.32 2.32 2.26 1.50 1.50
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, eop) 9.3 9.6 9.6 8.9 9.3
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, aop) 9.7 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4 -6 -4 -1 -3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.3 -3.4 -1.2 -2.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -18.0 -20.3 -19.8 -15.5 -19.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 21 25 25 24 32
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 39 45 44 39 52
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.6 14.6 0.4 -4.4 34.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.6 13.6 -0.9 -12.0 31.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3 4 2 1 2
International Reserves (USD bn) 26 24 26 36 36
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 6.5 7.1 11.0 8.3
External Debt (USD bn) 48 48 55 66 65
External Debt (% of GDP) 44.2 40.5 42.6 54.1 45.6

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