Blue buildings in Morocco

Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Outlook

After growing 1.3% year on year in January–September, the economy expanded 1.4% in Q4, according to a preliminary estimate by the statistical office. This implies that the economy grew 1.3% in 2022 as a whole, which would be the worst performance in MENA bar Lebanon, according to our latest forecasts. Heading into the new year, the statistical office projects growth of 3.4% in Q1 2023, as rains in December should aid agricultural output. In other news, the Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental financial crime watchdog, removed Morocco from its “grey list” in February. This should help Morocco regain its sovereign debt investment grade rating, which it lost two years ago. In related news, Morocco returned to the international debt market in March for the first time since it lost its investment grade rating, with a USD 2.5 billion issuance in two tranches.

Morocco Inflation

Inflation rose to 8.9% in January from 8.3% in December. January’s print was the highest since the series began in 2008. Inflation should cool significantly this year as commodity prices decline and the Central Bank’s rate hikes kick in. Key factors to watch include weather conditions, the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and energy prices.

Morocco Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 34.9 35.2 35.6 36.0 36.3
GDP (USD bn) 110 118 120 115 140
GDP per capita (USD) 3 3 3 3 3
GDP (MAD bn) 1 1 1 1 1
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.6 4.1 4.0 -5.4 15.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 3.1 2.7 -6.2 11.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.5 2.2 -5.6 -8.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 3.7 4.8 -0.5 -11.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.4 1.7 -10.0 -6.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.8 3.8 5.1 -15.0 1.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 4.8 2.1 -11.9 2.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.9 2.3 -6.3 6.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.3 9.6 9.2 11.9 12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -3.8 -3.6 -7.6 -5.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 65.1 65.3 64.9 76.4 70.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.4 5.5 5.9 10.2 6.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.6 0.2 1.1 -0.3 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.4
Key Rate (%, eop) 2.32 2.32 2.26 1.50 1.50
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, eop) 9.3 9.6 9.6 8.9 9.3
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, aop) 9.7 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4 -6 -4 -1 -3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.3 -3.7 -1.2 -2.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -18 -20 -20 -16 -20
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 21 25 25 24 32
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 39 45 44 39 52
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.6 14.6 0.4 -4.4 34.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.6 13.6 -0.9 -12.0 31.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3 4 2 1 2
International Reserves (USD bn) 26 24 26 36 36
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 6.5 7.1 11.0 8.3
External Debt (USD bn) 52 52 55 66 65
External Debt (% of GDP) 47.7 43.7 45.9 57.2 46.5

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