Blue buildings in Morocco

Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Outlook

GDP growth last year was less than half the average of the preceding 10 years. In Q1 of this year, GDP growth picked up to 3.5% on a surge in tourism and automobile exports. In Q2, GDP grew 3.2%, according to a provisional estimate, with agricultural production rising more weakly than in the prior quarter due to a drought. In other news, the country has had recent success in encouraging investment in the manufacturing sector. In June, a Chinese company announced that it was planning to build Africa’s first ‘gigafactory’ for batteries in Morocco. Then, in August, another Chinese firm decided to relocate a planned USD 280 million lithium-battery factory from the Czech Republic to the country. Meanwhile, the government said in August that it would reintroduce financial support for truckers in September, according to media reports, likely straining the fiscal balance.

Morocco Inflation

Inflation fell to 4.9% in July, a 17-month low (June: 5.5%). Inflation should average lower this year than last on a base effect and recent rate hikes. That said, our panelists have upped their forecasts for average inflation in 2023 by 1.9 percentage points since the start of the year. El Niño is a key upside risk ahead due to its effect on global agricultural output.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Morocco from 2013 to 2022.

Morocco Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 35.2 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.7
GDP (USD bn) 118 129 121 142 131
GDP per capita (USD) 3,353 3,623 3,377 3,903 3,568
GDP (MAD bn) 1,108 1,240 1,152 1,275 1,330
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.3 11.9 -7.0 10.6 4.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.1 2.9 -7.2 8.0 1.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 2.2 -5.6 8.2 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 4.8 -0.5 5.6 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.4 1.7 -10.0 9.3 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.8 5.1 -15.0 8.7 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.8 2.1 -11.9 11.8 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.9 2.3 -6.3 6.7 0.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.6 9.2 11.9 12.3 11.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -3.6 -7.1 -5.9 -5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 65.2 60.3 72.2 69.5 71.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.5 5.9 10.2 6.1 9.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.2 1.1 -0.3 3.2 8.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.4 6.7
Key Rate (%, eop) 2.32 2.26 1.50 1.50 2.50
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, eop) 9.57 9.56 8.90 9.25 10.46
Exchange Rate (MAD per USD, aop) 9.39 9.62 9.49 8.99 10.17
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.2 -4.4 -1.4 -3.2 -5.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -3.4 -1.2 -2.3 -3.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -20.3 -19.8 -15.5 -19.9 -26.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 24.6 24.7 23.6 31.6 36.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 44.9 44.5 39.1 51.5 63.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.6 0.4 -4.4 34.0 14.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.6 -0.9 -12.0 31.6 22.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.6 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 24.5 26.3 36.0 35.6 32.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.5 7.1 11.0 8.3 6.1
External Debt (USD bn) 48.7 54.6 61.6 66.5 57.1
External Debt (% of GDP) 41.3 42.4 50.7 46.9 43.6

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