Poland skyline at golden hour

Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth slowed further in the fourth quarter of 2022. A sizable drop in private consumption—amid spiking inflation, higher interest rates, downbeat sentiment and weaker export growth—was behind the deceleration. On the other hand, fixed investment expanded at a faster pace, supporting the economy. Meanwhile, GDP contracted significantly quarter on quarter. Moving to Q1, although the economy is expected to contract in year-on-year terms due to a high base of comparison, underlying momentum should have strengthened. Less downbeat consumer and business sentiment, as well as rising manufacturing PMI readings, in January-February point to stronger activity. Meanwhile, in late February S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s “A-” credit rating with a stable outlook, citing its diversified economy, NATO and EU membership and manageable levels of public and private debt.

Poland Inflation

Inflation came in at 17.2% in January, up from December’s 16.6%. It therefore moved further above the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target band. This year, inflation should gradually ease, although it will remain elevated, fueled by continued pass-through effects from high production costs. Energy price swings are the main upside risk.

Poland Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.8
GDP (USD bn) 527 587 596 600 679
GDP per capita (USD) 13 15 15 15 17
GDP (EUR bn) 467 498 533 526 575
GDP per capita (EUR) 12 13 14 13 15
GDP (PLN bn) 1 2 2 2 2
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.8 6.6 7.9 2.1 12.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.8 5.3 4.5 -2.0 6.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.9 5.6 3.4 -2.7 8.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 4.3 3.5 -3.7 6.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.5 6.7 4.7 4.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.6 12.6 6.2 -2.3 2.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.7 6.9 5.4 -1.1 13.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.2 7.5 3.3 -2.5 17.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.5 6.0 4.3 -1.0 15.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.2 7.9 6.7 -2.3 12.5
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.3 5.2 4.2 -1.3
Wages (ann. var. %) 5.3 7.2 7.2 5.3 8.8
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.6 5.8 5.2 6.8 5.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -6.9 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 50.8 48.7 45.7 57.2 53.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.5 8.8 8.7 16.9 8.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 8.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.7 2.3 3.4 5.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 0.9 0.6 3.1 3.7 5.3
NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.10 1.75
3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) 1.72 1.72 1.71 0.21 2.54
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.30 2.81 2.07 1.25 3.64
Stock Market (ann. var. of WIG %) 23.2 -9.5 0.2 -1.4 21.5
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, eop) 3.47 3.76 3.79 3.73 4.03
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, aop) 3.78 3.61 3.84 3.90 3.86
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, eop) 4.17 4.29 4.25 4.56 4.58
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, aop) 4.26 4.26 4.30 4.44 4.57
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -5.3 -9.6 -1.2 12.9 -8.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.9 -0.2 2.4 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -4.8 -11.2 -4.4 7.0 -7.6
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 191.2 205.2 220.3 220.6 263.6
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 196.0 216.4 224.7 213.6 271.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.0 7.3 7.4 0.1 19.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.9 10.4 3.8 -4.9 27.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 7.6 14.0 12.0 11.3 21.8
International Reserves (EUR bn) 94.5 102.3 114.5 125.6 146.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 6.5
External Debt (EUR bn) 319.8 317.3 316.7 307.4 322.7
External Debt (% of GDP) 68.4 63.7 59.5 58.4 56.2

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