Poland skyline at golden hour

Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

GDP rebounded at a robust quarter-on-quarter pace in the first quarter of this year. The economy benefited from a sharp rebound in public consumption as well as from accelerating fixed investment growth. Moreover, household spending declined at a softer clip, while imports fell at a more pronounced pace than exports, supporting the performance of the external sector. Moving to the current quarter, momentum should have waned. Industrial production fell month on month in April, and the manufacturing PMI was stuck in contractionary terrain in April-May. That said, in April-May, business confidence averaged higher than in Q1, and inflation continued its downward trend. Moreover, consumer confidence moved into optimistic territory. Meanwhile, in mid-May, the government approved a bill granting pensioners a permanent annual cash boost, which should support spending.

Poland Inflation

Inflation eased to 13.0% in May (April: 14.7%), although it remained well above the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target band. A softer increase in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and a sharper fall in fuel prices were behind the reading. Inflation should continue to decline this year, but remain elevated amid ongoing pass-through effects. Volatile energy prices pose risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Poland from 2013 to 2022.

Poland Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.8
GDP (USD bn) 527 587 596 600 681
GDP per capita (USD) 13,878 15,464 15,700 15,800 18,004
GDP (EUR bn) 467 498 533 526 576
GDP per capita (EUR) 12,307 13,107 14,026 13,860 15,231
GDP (PLN bn) 1,990 2,122 2,288 2,338 2,631
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.8 6.6 7.9 2.1 12.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.8 5.3 4.5 -2.0 6.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.9 5.6 3.4 -2.7 8.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 4.3 3.5 -3.7 6.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.5 6.7 4.7 4.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.6 12.6 6.2 -2.3 1.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.7 6.9 5.4 -1.1 13.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.2 7.5 3.3 -2.5 17.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.5 6.0 4.3 -1.0 15.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.2 7.9 6.7 -2.3 12.5
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.3 5.2 4.2 -1.3
Wages (ann. var. %) 5.3 7.2 7.2 5.3 8.8
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.6 5.8 5.2 6.8 5.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -6.9 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 50.8 48.7 45.7 57.2 53.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.5 8.8 8.7 16.9 8.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 8.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.7 2.3 3.4 5.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 0.9 0.6 3.1 3.7 5.3
NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.10 1.75
3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) 1.72 1.72 1.71 0.21 2.54
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.30 2.81 2.07 1.25 3.64
Stock Market (ann. var. of WIG %) 23.2 -9.5 0.2 -1.4 21.5
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, eop) 3.47 3.76 3.79 3.73 4.03
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, aop) 3.78 3.61 3.84 3.90 3.86
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, eop) 4.17 4.29 4.25 4.56 4.58
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, aop) 4.26 4.26 4.30 4.44 4.57
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -5.3 -9.6 -1.2 12.9 -8.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.9 -0.2 2.4 -1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -4.8 -11.2 -4.4 7.0 -7.6
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 191.2 205.2 220.3 220.6 263.6
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 196.0 216.4 224.7 213.6 271.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.0 7.3 7.4 0.1 19.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.9 10.4 3.8 -4.9 27.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 7.6 14.0 12.0 11.3 21.8
International Reserves (EUR bn) 94.5 102.3 114.5 125.6 146.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 6.5
External Debt (EUR bn) 319.8 317.3 316.7 307.4 322.7
External Debt (% of GDP) 68.4 63.7 59.5 58.4 56.0

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