Poland skyline at golden hour

Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

The economy contracted in annual terms in Q2. Softer wage growth, still-elevated price pressures and deeply entrenched consumer pessimism weighed on household spending, while a weak Eurozone took a toll on exports. The economy should rebound in the current quarter, according to our panel, although momentum will likely be underwhelming. The labor market remained tight in July, while inflation fell further in July-August. However, industrial production shrank in July, and the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in July-August than in Q2. Meanwhile, in late August, the government approved the 2024 budget, which includes a 4.5% target for the fiscal deficit and ensures funding for key social assistance projects. In other news, in mid-August, Parliament approved the holding of a referendum on illegal migration on the same day as the general election on 15 October.

Poland Inflation

Inflation fell to 10.1% in August (July: 10.8%). The reading was the lowest since February 2022 but remained well above the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target band. Inflation should continue to decline ahead this year but will remain above target, fueled by pass-through effects and a higher minimum wage. Volatile commodity prices are a factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Poland from 2013 to 2022.

Poland Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.7
GDP (USD bn) 589 596 600 681 690
GDP per capita (USD) 15,500 15,700 15,800 18,004 18,333
GDP (EUR bn) 499 533 526 576 657
GDP per capita (EUR) 13,137 14,026 13,860 15,231 17,442
GDP (PLN bn) 2,127 2,288 2,338 2,631 3,078
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.2 7.6 2.1 12.6 17.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.3 4.5 -2.0 6.9 5.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.6 3.4 -2.7 8.5 5.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 3.5 -3.7 6.4 3.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 6.7 4.7 4.9 -1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 12.6 6.2 -2.3 1.2 5.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.9 5.4 -1.1 13.3 6.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.5 3.3 -2.5 17.1 6.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.0 4.3 -1.0 15.3 10.7
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 7.9 6.7 -2.3 12.5 20.8
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 4.1 4.5 4.2 -2.4 2.1
Wages (ann. var. %) 7.2 7.2 5.3 8.8 12.1
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.8 5.2 6.8 5.8 5.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -0.7 -6.9 -1.8 -3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.7 45.7 57.2 53.6 49.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.8 8.7 16.9 8.8 5.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.1 3.4 2.4 8.6 16.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.7 2.3 3.4 5.1 14.3
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 0.6 3.1 3.7 5.3 11.5
NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 0.10 1.75 6.75
3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) 1.72 1.71 0.21 2.54 7.02
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.81 2.07 1.25 3.64 6.92
Stock Market (ann. var. of WIG %) -9.5 0.2 -1.4 21.5 -17.1
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, eop) 3.76 3.79 3.73 4.03 4.39
Exchange Rate (PLN per USD, aop) 3.61 3.84 3.90 3.86 4.46
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, eop) 4.29 4.25 4.56 4.58 4.68
Exchange Rate (PLN per EUR, aop) 4.26 4.30 4.44 4.57 4.69
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -9.6 -1.2 12.9 -8.3 -19.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -0.2 2.4 -1.4 -3.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -11.2 -4.4 7.0 -7.6 -24.1
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 205 220 221 264 320
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 216 225 214 271 344
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.3 7.4 0.1 19.5 21.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.4 3.8 -4.9 27.0 27.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 14.0 12.0 12.4 26.0 27.6
International Reserves (EUR bn) 102 115 126 147 156
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 6.1 7.1 6.5 5.5
External Debt (EUR bn) 317 317 307 323 348
External Debt (% of GDP) 63.6 59.5 58.4 56.0 53.0

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