Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin America’s GDP growth will be below half its 2022 level this year on tight monetary policy and drought in some countries. However, forecasts have been revised up recently, and a tourism recovery, strong remittances from the U.S. and a bumper harvest in Brazil will provide support. Sociopolitical unrest and a further economic slowdown in China pose downside risks.
Latin America Inflation
Regional inflation declined to 15.5% in July from 15.7% in June, and most countries that have reported data saw price pressures dip in August. On aggregate, regional inflation is seen rising from current levels by year-end. However, this is mainly due to FX weakness in Argentina; most countries should see declining or broadly stable inflation from now through to end-2023.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -2.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,045 | 1,036 | 947 | 1,211 | 1,408 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,050 | 1,016 | 853 | 1,167 | 1,416 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 842 | 830 | 868 | 905 | 848 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.5 | 39.6 | 48.1 | 43.0 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,750 | 8,511 | 7,125 | 8,143 | 9,158 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 1.3 | -7.5 | 8.3 | 5.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | -0.5 | -11.5 | 17.4 | 4.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.7 | -1.6 | -6.9 | 7.7 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.3 | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.1 | 59.2 | 69.0 | 63.2 | 61.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.7 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.6 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 11.91 | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.55 | 18.95 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 325 | 330 | 354 | 408 | 445 |