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Latin America Economic Forecast

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America’s economy will likely grow at the weakest pace among all world regions this year on ongoing political and policy uncertainty, high violent crime rates and a lack of economic competitiveness versus other emerging markets. That said, interest rate cuts, lower inflation in most of the region and nearshoring investment in some countries will provide support.

Latin America Inflation

In February, inflation fell in Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, rose in Bolivia, Chile and Peru and was stable in Ecuador. Regional inflation is forecast to rise on average this year from 2023. However, this will mainly be due to a more-than-doubling of inflation in Argentina; most other countries will see lower average inflation in 2024 versus 2023.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2023.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.61 5.84 9.55 18.91 -
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 323 345 404 442 425
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -0.2 -1.9 -2.5 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1,037 948 1,213 1,411 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 1,020 856 1,171 1,425 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 832 871 908 850 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 38.1 46.2 41.0 36.2 -
GDP per capita (USD) 8,653 7,247 8,323 9,379 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.8 -6.6 7.2 3.9 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.6 -7.7 8.3 5.6 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -0.4 -11.4 16.0 5.3 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.5 -6.9 7.7 1.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 10.5 9.5 7.2 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -8.4 -4.1 -3.5 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.1 68.9 62.8 61.1 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.6 6.4 10.0 15.5 17.7

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