Latin America Economic Outlook
This year, Latin America is expected to experience the slowest GDP growth among all world regions. Sociopolitical instability, high inequality, crime, corruption, and limited participation in global value chains will hinder growth. Nonetheless, support will come from softer inflation in most countries, significant monetary policy easing, and a strong U.S. economy.
Latin America Inflation
From June to May, inflation increased in most countries. Almost all countries will see lower average inflation in 2024 vs 2023, though currency depreciation and subsidy reform will boost price pressures in Argentina. There is an over 230 percentage point gap between the country with the highest inflation forecast—Argentina—and Ecuador, which has the lowest forecast.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,661 | 7,253 | 8,331 | 9,399 | 10,434 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 1.5 | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | |
| -0.5 | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.4 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.1 | 68.9 | 62.8 | 61.1 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.6 | 18.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 838 | 876 | 913 | 854 | 885 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,037 | 948 | 1,213 | 1,411 | 1,388 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,021 | 857 | 1,171 | 1,422 | 1,335 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.54 | 18.93 | 20.18 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.6 | 48.2 | 42.8 | 37.9 | - |