Latin America Economic Outlook
In 2024, Latin America’s economic expansion will ease to well below the global average on persistent political instability and a general lack of economic competitiveness versus other emerging markets. However, subsiding interest rates and inflation in most economies will provide support. The impact of El Niño on agriculture and mining is a key risk in both directions.
Latin America Inflation
Regional inflation climbed to 17.9% in September from 16.5% in August on higher price pressures in Brazil and Argentina. Regional inflation should average higher this year than last and even higher in 2024. However, this is mainly due to runaway inflation in Argentina; most countries should see price pressures decline next year from 2023 on lower average commodity prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | -1.5 | -6.9 | 7.7 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.3 | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.1 | 59.2 | 69.0 | 63.2 | 61.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.7 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.6 |
| 1-week Repo Rate (%, eop) | 11.91 | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.55 | 18.95 |
| Exchange Rate (ALL per USD, eop) | 319 | 323 | 345 | 406 | 445 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -2.1 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,045 | 1,036 | 947 | 1,211 | 1,410 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,050 | 1,016 | 853 | 1,167 | 1,420 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 844 | 832 | 871 | 908 | 850 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 36.0 | 37.9 | 45.9 | 40.8 | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,888 | 8,654 | 7,252 | 8,285 | 9,322 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.9 | 1.5 | -7.7 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | -0.5 | -11.4 | 17.0 | 5.4 |