CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Regional growth will beat its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 2.3% in 2024 but cool from 2023 as the Russia-Ukraine war dents momentum in Belarus and Russia via high inflation and interest rates, sanctions, labor shortages and ebbing trade and investment flows. Russia’s invasion will continue to undermine Ukraine’s growth. Geopolitics remains the key risk factor.
CIS Countries Inflation
CIS inflation surged to 7.6% in May (April: 7.1%). Inflation rose in Russia and Ukraine and returned in Azerbaijan, outweighing slower price growth in Kazakhstan. Price pressures should cool in 2024 from 2023, though the outlook is volatile; geopolitical strife, monetary policy shifts and volatility in commodity prices and regional currencies are key risk factors.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,713 | 6,925 | 8,484 | 9,948 | 9,604 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.5 | -2.6 | 5.4 | -1.7 | 4.0 |
| 4.6 | -4.8 | 9.2 | - | - | |
| 4.0 | -5.2 | 7.8 | - | - | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 3.0 | -2.0 | 5.2 | -1.3 | 3.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 449 | 410 | 512 | 501 | 565 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 663 | 721 | 759 | 714 | 746 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 40.1 | 44.4 | 37.7 | 29.0 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.4 | -2.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 18.7 | 25.3 | 21.9 | 23.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.38 | 5.27 | 8.80 | 9.59 | 15.32 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 0.9 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 604 | 488 | 712 | 835 | 650 |