CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The regional economy is forecast to rebound in 2023, boosted by strong consumer spending growth, Russia’s rapid recovery from Q2 onwards and the region’s efforts to diversify energy exports. That said, the CIS economy will not return to pre-war levels until 2025. The war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, currency volatility and higher public debt levels all cloud the outlook.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation jumped to a four-month high of 5.8% in July (June: 5.3%) due to rising price pressures in Armenia and Russia. Conversely, inflation cooled in the rest of the region. Inflation should fall notably in 2023 compared to 2022 thanks to a strong base effect and high interest rates. Geopolitical tensions, currency weakness and energy prices are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2021.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,463 | 7,715 | 6,930 | 8,457 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.0 | 2.5 | -2.7 | 5.4 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 4.6 | -4.7 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 3.0 | -5.3 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 3.6 | 3.1 | -2.2 | 5.7 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.9 | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 19.0 | 18.7 | 25.4 | 22.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 14.2 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 8.78 | 7.37 | 5.25 | 8.79 | 9.65 |
| Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) | 290 | 334 | 405 | 396 | 410 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.7 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 623 | 604 | 488 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 428 | 448 | 410 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 543 | 634 | 686 | 724 | 678 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 36.2 | 37.2 | 40.9 | 34.5 | - |