CIS Countries Economic Outlook
In 2026, CIS Plus GDP growth is expected to lag the global average, but a clear divergence will emerge across the region. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine will underperform the world average, due to prolonged conflict and war fatigue. In contrast, the Central Asian and Caucasus economies should outperform, supported by strong infrastructure spending and robust gold demand.
CIS Countries Inflation
In July, regional inflation remained around June’s level, with price pressures exceeding central bank targets in most of the big regional economies due to fuel shortages. That said, regional inflation remained below its 10-year average of 7.2%. In 2026, regional inflation should hit a six-year low due to softer household spending growth and still-high interest rates.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 202 | 340 | 92 | 91 | 32 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 24.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.0 | -1.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.7 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 713 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 647 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 2.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,633 | 12,208 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 25.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 514 | 502 | 568 | 582 | 616 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.83 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 989 |