Russia

CIS Countries Economic Forecast

CIS Countries Economic Outlook

The regional economy is forecast to rebound in 2023, boosted by strong consumer spending growth, Russia’s rapid recovery from Q2 onwards and the region’s efforts to diversify energy exports. That said, the CIS economy will not return to pre-war levels until 2025. The war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, currency volatility and higher public debt levels all cloud the outlook.

CIS Countries Inflation

Regional inflation jumped to a four-month high of 5.8% in July (June: 5.3%) due to rising price pressures in Armenia and Russia. Conversely, inflation cooled in the rest of the region. Inflation should fall notably in 2023 compared to 2022 thanks to a strong base effect and high interest rates. Geopolitical tensions, currency weakness and energy prices are upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2022.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP per capita (USD) 7,463 7,715 6,930 8,457 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 2.5 -2.7 5.4 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 4.6 -4.7 - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.2 3.0 -5.3 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.6 3.1 -2.2 5.7 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.1 4.9 6.0 5.2 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.9 1.2 -3.9 -0.4 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.0 18.7 25.4 22.0 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.2 5.0 4.1 7.4 14.2
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 8.78 7.37 5.25 8.79 9.65
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.8 2.2 1.2 4.7 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 543 634 686 724 678
External Debt (% of GDP) 36.2 37.2 40.9 34.5 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 428 448 410 - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 623 604 488 - -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 290 334 405 396 410

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