CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The Q2 recovery of the three largest economies in CIS Plus pushed up our Consensus for 2026 GDP growth. Still, economic momentum is expected to lag the global average in 2026 and 2027. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine will underperform the world average due to war fatigue, but Central Asia and the Caucasus should outperform, supported by strong infrastructure spending.
CIS Countries Inflation
In August, regional inflation rose from July’s level, with price pressures overshooting central bank targets in most of the big regional economies due to fuel shortages linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2026, regional inflation should hit a six-year low due to softer household spending growth and still-high interest rates. The decline should continue in 2027.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 198 | 330 | 81 | 81 | 29 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 9.0 | 2.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.8 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 24.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,602 | 10,262 | 9,942 | 10,633 | 12,208 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 513 | 502 | 567 | 581 | 612 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.6 | 25.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 9.1 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 4.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 712 | 835 | 652 | 666 | 646 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 759 | 714 | 746 | 775 | 989 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.83 | 9.59 | 15.31 | 18.75 | 15.53 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.0 | -1.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |