Mountains in Tajikistan

Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth rose to 8.0% in January–December 2022 from 7.8% in January–September. The acceleration was driven by stronger output in the agricultural and transport and communication sectors. On the other hand, growth in the industrial sector, construction and trade softened in the same periods. Overall in 2022, the economy was buttressed by a significant increase in inflows of labor and remittances from Russia. Moreover, the military conscription in Russia has increased the demand for workers, and a record number of Tajiks received Russian nationality in 2022—boding well for remittances ahead. In 2023, the economy has likely started on a solid note. A sustained deceleration in inflation at the end of 2022 prompted the Central Bank to cut its key policy rate in February, which should be boosting investment and spending.

Tajikistan Inflation

Inflation inched up to 4.3% in January from 4.0% in December, edging closer to the Central Bank’s target of 6.0% plus or minus 2.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Bank cut its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 11.00% in early February. In turn, our panelists expect inflation to rise this year.

Tajikistan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7
GDP (USD bn) 7.5 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.7
GDP per capita (USD) 844 852 893 859 906
GDP (EUR bn) 6.7 6.6 7.4 7.1 7.4
GDP per capita (EUR) 746 722 798 751 765
GDP (TJS bn) 64.4 71.1 79.1 84.0 98.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 17.6 10.3 11.3 6.1 17.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 7.6 7.4 4.4 9.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -2.7 -2.1 -4.3 -0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 47.7 46.3 43.1 50.4 44.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.2 3.8 7.8 8.6 8.9
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 16.00 14.00 12.25 10.75 13.25
Exchange Rate (TJS per USD, eop) 8.82 9.43 9.69 11.30 11.30
Exchange Rate (TJS per USD, aop) 8.55 9.15 9.53 10.32 11.31
Exchange Rate (TJS per EUR, eop) 10.58 10.80 10.84 13.85 12.77
Exchange Rate (TJS per EUR, aop) 9.68 10.80 10.67 11.79 13.38
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.1 -4.9 -2.2 4.1 8.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.4 -1.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.7
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 30.7 0.1 14.5 26.9 58.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.4 15.6 5.7 -7.0 37.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.5 5.6 6.0 9.9 8.0
External Debt (USD bn) 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.0 7.0
External Debt (% of GDP) 77.9 78.5 80.0 85.5 80.6

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