Tajikistan Economic Outlook
Year-on-year GDP growth rose to 8.0% in January–December 2022 from 7.8% in January–September. The acceleration was driven by stronger output in the agricultural and transport and communication sectors. On the other hand, growth in the industrial sector, construction and trade softened in the same periods. Overall in 2022, the economy was buttressed by a significant increase in inflows of labor and remittances from Russia. Moreover, the military conscription in Russia has increased the demand for workers, and a record number of Tajiks received Russian nationality in 2022—boding well for remittances ahead. In 2023, the economy has likely started on a solid note. A sustained deceleration in inflation at the end of 2022 prompted the Central Bank to cut its key policy rate in February, which should be boosting investment and spending.
Inflation inched up to 4.3% in January from 4.0% in December, edging closer to the Central Bank’s target of 6.0% plus or minus 2.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Bank cut its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 11.00% in early February. In turn, our panelists expect inflation to rise this year.