Major Economies Economic Outlook
Major advanced economies will lose steam this year compared to last, on a post-pandemic normalization of demand and higher interest rates. That said, the region’s 2023 GDP growth forecasts are now three times higher than they were back in January, on surprisingly robust year-to-date data. A faltering Chinese economy and higher-than-expected interest rates pose risks.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation among major advanced economies was broadly stable at 4.1% in July. Inflation rose in Canada and the U.S., was stable in Japan, and fell in the Euro area and the UK. Price pressures in the region will average lower in H2 than in H1, though the decline in inflation will be tempered by a less favorable base effect and an uptick in oil prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 49,119 | 49,677 | 48,386 | 53,330 | 54,139 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 1.7 | -4.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | 1.4 | -5.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.4 | 3.4 | -4.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -0.7 | -7.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -2.9 | -11.6 | -8.9 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 113 | 114 | 134 | 129 | 124 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 1.28 | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 3.45 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 57.98 | 57.86 | 56.07 | 57.58 | 59.89 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 6,074 | 5,932 | 5,328 | 6,415 | 7,028 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 6,824 | 6,660 | 6,041 | 7,388 | 8,685 |