Major Economies Economic Outlook
GDP growth in 2026 will split into two camps. On one hand, the U.S. economy is projected to grow above 2% for the sixth straight year, thanks to robust consumer spending and tech investment. By contrast, Canada, Japan and Europe’s largest economies are expected to grow by between 0.5% and 1%, as they lack the U.S.’ dynamic AI industry and spendthrift consumers.
Major Economies Inflation
Since February, inflation has jumped in all G7 economies minus the UK, where price pressures were curtailed by a lower energy price cap in April. Over 2026 as a whole, inflation is forecast to exceed central banks’ 2.0% inflation targets everywhere except Japan. Inflation is projected to move back toward target next year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,337 | 55,480 | 58,501 | 60,608 | 64,082 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,835 | 1,764 | 1,964 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,348 | 5,587 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,497 | -1,607 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,980 |