Major Economies Economic Outlook
G7 GDP growth is set to diverge markedly this year. The U.S. is expected to remain the strongest performer, with GDP rising by more than 2%, supported by resilient consumer spending and continued investment in technology. By contrast, Canada, Japan and Europe’s largest economies are likely to see more subdued expansion, with only Canada projected to grow more than 1%.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation rose in most G7 economies in April due to higher fuel prices, while falling in the UK as the regulated energy price cap was reduced. Our panelists have further revised up their 2026 average inflation forecasts in recent weeks on the ongoing blockade of the Hormuz Strait, with inflation now set to exceed central banks’ 2.0% inflation targets across the G7.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,336 | 55,481 | 58,500 | 60,602 | 64,118 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,346 | 5,574 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,506 | -1,591 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,981 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 | 1,966 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |