Major Economies Economic Outlook
GDP growth in major advanced economies is seen losing steam next year following a surprisingly resilient 2023. The slowdown will be led by Canada, Japan and the U.S., while the economies of the Euro area and the UK are seen logging faster expansions relative to this year. Higher-for-longer interest rates and a potential downturn in China’s economy pose downside risks.
Major Economies Inflation
In October, inflation tumbled in the Euro area, the UK and the U.S., with readings not yet available for Canada or Japan. Inflation has fallen substantially year to date but is still above central banks’ targets. Price pressures should average lower in 2024 than in 2023 on softer commodity prices and the lagged impact of rate hikes on demand. Oil price volatility is a risk in both directions.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 49,249 | 49,829 | 48,670 | 53,748 | 54,552 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 1.8 | -4.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.0 | 1.4 | -5.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.5 | 3.5 | -4.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -0.7 | -7.2 | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.8 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 113 | 114 | 134 | 128 | 123 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 1.28 | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 3.46 |
| Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) | 58.02 | 57.89 | 56.11 | 57.48 | 59.76 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -2.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 6,074 | 5,938 | 5,336 | 6,435 | 7,059 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 6,826 | 6,661 | 6,039 | 7,397 | 8,704 |