Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists anticipate that historically high interest rates will keep growth in most major advanced economies below their ten-year pre-pandemic averages this year. However, the U.S. is expected to deviate from this trend, with our Consensus projecting over 2% growth. The timing and pace of interest rate cuts is a two-sided risk.
Major Economies Inflation
In June, inflation fell from May in the U.S., Canada and the Euro area. Inflation was stable in the UK and Japan. By Q4, inflation in Canada, the Euro area, Japan and the UK should be close to central banks’ 2.0% targets, though U.S. inflation is projected to stay nearer to 3% due to the ongoing strong economy.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -4.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 1.4 | -5.1 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | |
| 3.5 | -4.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.8 | -7.1 | 5.3 | 2.4 | -0.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 114 | 134 | 128 | 122 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 3.45 | 4.72 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -2.2 | -1.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 49,922 | 48,780 | 53,915 | 54,792 | 58,003 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,938 | 5,334 | 6,437 | 7,075 | 6,953 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 6,661 | 6,046 | 7,402 | 8,723 | 8,027 |