Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Regional growth will cool from 2023’s rate in 2024 due to softer momentum in fixed investment and private spending, curbed by high interest rates plus softer momentum in the U.S. Nevertheless, growth will surpass its prior 10-year average of 2.3% on recovering exports and strong public spending in several countries. Higher-than-expected U.S. growth is an upside risk.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
Regional inflation rose from June in July, before falling in most economies in August. Regional inflation will rise from current levels by year-end but it will average below 2023’s rate in 2024 as a whole on softer GDP growth and high interest rates. Weaker-than-expected regional currencies and a stronger-than-anticipated La Niña weather event are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | - | - | 4.5 | - | |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.6 | 62.3 | 58.3 | 54.8 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 61.6 | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 84.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 121.0 | 100.2 | 137.1 | 170.6 | 163.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,657 | 5,223 | 5,777 | 6,418 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -7.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | - |
| 1.2 | - | - | 5.6 | - | |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.57 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.65 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | 0.4 | - | -1.6 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 77.5 | 68.5 | 91.6 | 109.9 | 100.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 65.9 | 76.5 | 71.3 | 66.8 | - |