Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
CENAM’s GDP is seen growing this year at a pace close to that of 2025, as Dominican GDP growth should roughly double from last year and compensate for cooling momentum elsewhere in the region amid the Iran war and El Niño. A pickup in goods exports plus resilient growth in private spending, public consumption and investment in most economies should provide tailwinds.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In July, regional inflation held near 4.0% for the third consecutive month, marking the strongest price pressures since 2024. Regional inflation should average above 2025 levels in 2026, fueled by the Iran energy crisis and El Niño weather conditions stoking food inflation in H2. A stronger-than-expected El Niño is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 233 | 231 | 233 | 235 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.2 | -61.2 | -63.4 | -62.6 | -63.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.60 | 4.90 | 4.26 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,056 | 6,702 | 7,181 | 7,604 | 7,973 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.6 | 63.5 | 63.2 | 60.1 | 59.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 170 | 171 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 54.5 | 53.4 | 53.1 | 53.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 17.9 | 2.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 110 |