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East Asia Economic Forecast

East Asia Economic Outlook

Regional growth will accelerate this year from last, thanks to the lifting of pandemic restrictions in China and Hong Kong. That said, the Korean and Taiwanese economies will lose steam on soft overseas goods demand and higher interest rates. A downward spiral in China’s property sector is a downside risk, while significant Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk.

East Asia Inflation

In August, inflation returned in China following deflation in July. Price pressures also rose in Korea, Mongolia and Taiwan. 2023 average inflation projections for the region as a whole have been downgraded again over the last month due to tepid Chinese demand; East Asian inflation is forecast to average around half its 2022 level this year.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2021.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP per capita (USD) 11,135 11,306 11,592 13,877 13,874
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.1 5.3 1.8 7.9 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.5 5.7 -2.9 11.6 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.9 4.4 2.8 5.2 4.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.6 4.9 2.8 9.7 3.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -4.2 -5.8 -3.3 -4.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 54.0 57.6 66.6 68.4 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.1 2.3
Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.91 3.74 3.36 3.40 3.58
Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) 125 122 112 113 112
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 1.5 2.6 2.9 2.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3,963 3,888 3,962 5,095 5,313
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 3,565 3,437 3,376 4,374 4,507
International Reserves (USD bn) 4,462 4,556 4,826 4,940 4,712
External Debt (% of GDP) 15.2 15.3 17.1 16.1 -

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