East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia’s economy should continue to outpace the global average this year, supported by AI-driven demand for electronics exports, buoyant tourism and strong stock markets. Still, China’s property slump will weigh on activity. China-Taiwan tensions and a prolonged Iran war pose downside risks, while additional Chinese stimulus could lift growth.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation spiked across the region in April, reflecting higher global energy prices. However, price pressures are subdued vs the global average everywhere except Mongolia, reflecting the region’s vast manufacturing capacity plus soft domestic demand in China. Our panelists forecast regional inflation to remain subdued in 2026 as a whole, except in Mongolia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 2.95 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,445 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,364 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,214 | 14,203 | 14,228 | 14,626 | 15,256 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |