East Asia Economic Outlook
Regional growth will accelerate this year from last, thanks to the lifting of pandemic restrictions in China and Hong Kong. That said, the Korean and Taiwanese economies will lose steam on soft overseas goods demand and higher interest rates. A downward spiral in China’s property sector is a downside risk, while significant Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk.
East Asia Inflation
In August, inflation returned in China following deflation in July. Price pressures also rose in Korea, Mongolia and Taiwan. 2023 average inflation projections for the region as a whole have been downgraded again over the last month due to tepid Chinese demand; East Asian inflation is forecast to average around half its 2022 level this year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,963 | 3,888 | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,313 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,565 | 3,437 | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,507 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,462 | 4,556 | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 15.2 | 15.3 | 17.1 | 16.1 | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 11,135 | 11,306 | 11,592 | 13,877 | 13,874 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 7.9 | 2.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 7.5 | 5.7 | -2.9 | 11.6 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 9.7 | 3.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.2 | -4.2 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 54.0 | 57.6 | 66.6 | 68.4 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| 1-week Repo Rate (%, eop) | 3.91 | 3.74 | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.58 |
| Exchange Rate (ALL per USD, eop) | 125 | 122 | 112 | 113 | 112 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 |