East Asia Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for East Asia’s GDP growth to slow in 2025 vs 2024, linked to normalizing tourist arrivals and weaker exports as global trade restrictions rise. However, early-year export activity may see a lift from front-loading in some countries, while interest rate cuts will offer support. U.S. tariffs and Chinese stimulus are critical factors to monitor.
East Asia Inflation
East Asian inflation got a bump in January from the early timing of the Lunar New Year. However, the underlying picture is one of muted price pressures across the region—except in Mongolia, which is experiencing high demand-driven price pressures. East Asia’s 2025 inflation rate is forecast to average the lowest among all world regions, with Mongolia a high outlier.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,202 | 14,226 | 14,621 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.9 | 10.9 | 1.2 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.2 | -4.3 | -4.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.5 | 66.5 | 71.8 | 77.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,334 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,255 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | - |