East Asia Economic Outlook
Our panelists have cut their Consensus forecasts over the last month in light of U.S. tariffs. East Asia’s economy will lose steam in 2025 from 2024, with global protectionism and a stabilization in tourist arrivals growth the key drivers. That said, interest rate cuts and other measures to stimulate domestic spending should provide support.
East Asia Inflation
Price pressures are low in much of East Asia—particularly in China, where prices fell year on year in February and March. The region’s huge manufacturing capacity and elevated savings rates are the cause. Over 2025 as a whole, East Asian inflation will average the lowest among all world regions, though Mongolia will see high inflation due to strong domestic demand.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,225 | 14,628 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.9 | 10.9 | 1.2 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,333 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,254 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | - |