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Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

The economy ended FY 2023 (July 2022–June 2023) on a high note, following a devastating start when hurricane Fiona made landfall in September 2022. Economic activity expanded 3.0% year on year in June—the most robust increase since April 2022. As a result, the expansion in the final quarter of FY 2023 was above Q3’s decline. This brought average activity growth to 0.3% in FY 2023, suggesting GDP could have met our panel’s expectations of a full-year increase. Looking at quarterly data, an upturn in growth in Q4 was likely driven by softer inflation alleviating pressure on purchasing power; retail sales rose 4.4% year on year in Q4, hinting at resilient private spending. That said, a higher unemployment rate could have capped the overall improvement; goods imports grew at the slowest pace in over two years. Meanwhile, merchandise exports rose at a softer annual pace in Q4 than in Q3.

Puerto Rico Inflation

In July, inflation was unchanged at June’s 2.3%; housing and utilities prices rose at a slower pace, offsetting a more moderate decline in prices for transport. In FY 2024—which started in July 2023— average inflation will more than halve from FY 2023’s level due to a higher unemployment rate and slower economic activity.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Puerto Rico from 2013 to 2022.

Puerto Rico Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
GDP (USD bn) 101 105 103 106 113
GDP per capita (USD) 30,416 31,925 31,523 32,668 34,877
GNP (USD bn) 67.6 70.8 70.4 73.0 78.0
GNP per capita (USD) 20,366 21,490 21,504 22,405 23,968
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -4.4 1.7 -4.2 0.4 3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.5 6.9 -9.3 19.2 8.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.8 5.3 -0.8 1.5 -0.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 63.9 4.6 -32.0 9.5 12.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 51.9 -12.9 -8.7 -2.7 4.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 35.7 -2.6 -13.3 10.1 10.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.2 8.3 8.9 7.9 6.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 0.7 -1.7 2.7 7.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 4.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.6 -4.9 14.3 19.2 7.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -4.6 13.9 18.1 6.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 14.0 14.3 17.7 12.9 8.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 60.5 63.7 62.2 57.9 59.8
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 46.5 49.4 44.5 45.1 51.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -14.9 5.2 -2.3 -6.9 3.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 1.2 6.3 -9.9 1.2 14.3

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