Tanzania skyline

Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

The economy should have delivered another solid performance at the close of 2022, following stronger annual GDP growth in the third quarter. Price pressures intensified in October–December, although inflation remained below the Central Bank’s 5.0% target. Meanwhile, annual personal credit growth accelerated sequentially through December, when it grew by nearly 30%. This, coupled with a relatively accommodative monetary policy stance, should have shielded consumers’ budgets, providing some spending support. Still, annual merchandise import growth more than halved in the three months to December compared to the previous three. Turning to the external sector, annual goods exports growth was higher on average in Q4 compared to Q3. In other news, the government recently authorized the importation of 90,000 tons of rice in a bid to bring down its price after a sharp decline in production.

Tanzania Inflation

Stronger price increases for food and transport pushed inflation to 4.9% in January (December: 4.8%). Meanwhile, at its 31 January meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee left its key rate unchanged at 5.00% as inflation remained below target, but continued tightening its stance via other policy measures. Inflation will likely surpass the target this year.

Tanzania Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 53.1 54.7 56.3 58.0 59.7
GDP (USD bn) 53.1 56.7 60.5 65.3 69.8
GDP per capita (USD) 1 1 1 1 1
GDP (TZS bn) 118 129 139 151 161
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.6 8.7 8.2 8.3 6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.8 7.0 7.0 4.8 4.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.6 9.5 7.4 5.7 6.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 5.6 3.2 5.1 8.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.0 3.5 1.3 3.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 14.5 17.4 14.3 7.2 5.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.1 -1.1 16.9 -15.6 16.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.1 16.7 0.1 -9.7 23.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -1.9 -2.0 -2.5 -3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.7 40.5 39.0 40.5 40.7
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 10.41 3.76 11.76 8.23 17.61
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.2 4.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.3 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.7
Discount Rate (%, eop) 9.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 5.00
Exchange Rate (TZS per USD, eop) 2 2 2 2 2
Exchange Rate (TZS per USD, aop) 2 2 2 2 2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -1.5 -2.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -4.1 -2.2 -2.2 -3.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.8 -4.2 -3.2 -1.5 -3.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 4.5 4.3 5.4 6.4 6.8
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 7.3 8.5 8.6 7.8 10.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.4 -4.8 25.3 18.5 6.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 5.1 16.8 1.1 -9.1 27.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 5.9 5.0 5.6 4.8 6.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 9.7 7.1 7.8 7.3 7.7
External Debt (USD bn) 21.4 22.4 24.2 25.5 28.5
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.4 39.5 39.9 39.1 40.8

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