Tanzania skyline

Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

The economy likely saw robust annual GDP growth in Q2, following a 5.6% expansion in Q1. Annual private sector credit growth remained robust in Q2, boding well for fixed investment. Additionally, lower price pressures in Q2 compared to Q1 likely supported household demand. From the external side, the strong annual increase in tourist arrivals and gold production in Q2 boded well for services and merchandise exports, respectively. Favorable weather also supported the output of the cash crops tea and cotton. In other news, in late August, the government announced that it would provide credit guarantee schemes to boost exports, with the aim of easing a shortage of U.S. dollars. Meanwhile, in September, Tanzania signed a USD 400 million agreement with the World Bank and African Development Bank to fund agriculture programs, promising to grow the sector in the next few years.

Tanzania Inflation

Inflation remained at July’s 3.3% in August, below the Bank of Tanzania’s 5.0% target, as lower food inflation was offset by higher inflation for transport, housing and electricity. In 2023, average inflation is set to remain around 2022 levels. A weaker-than-anticipated shilling is an upside risk, and the evolution of oil prices is a factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Tanzania from 2013 to 2022.

Tanzania Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 54.7 56.3 58.0 59.7 61.5
GDP (USD bn) 54.5 58.3 62.9 67.6 73.2
GDP per capita (USD) 997 1,036 1,084 1,132 1,191
GDP (TZS bn) 123,989 134,384 145,430 156,375 170,256
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 8.4 8.2 7.5 8.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.0 7.0 4.8 4.9 4.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.8 2.9 4.8 7.3 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.3 2.8 5.3 7.9 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.0 3.5 1.3 3.5 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 17.4 14.3 7.2 5.1 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.9 18.7 -17.3 16.4 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 16.7 4.2 -8.6 23.0 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.0 -2.5 -3.4 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.5 39.1 39.8 42.1 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.8 11.8 8.2 17.6 12.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.3 3.8 3.2 4.2 4.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.3
Discount Rate (%, eop) 7.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Exchange Rate (TZS per USD, eop) 2,296 2,295 2,317 2,304 2,332
Exchange Rate (TZS per USD, aop) 2,274 2,304 2,313 2,314 2,324
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.3 -1.3 -1.5 -2.4 -5.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -2.3 -2.3 -3.5 -7.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -4.2 -3.2 -1.5 -3.2 -7.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 4.3 5.4 6.4 6.8 7.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 8.5 8.6 7.8 10.0 14.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.8 25.3 18.5 6.0 6.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.8 1.1 -9.1 27.7 42.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 5.0 5.6 4.8 6.4 5.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.1 7.8 7.3 7.7 4.4
External Debt (USD bn) 22.4 24.2 25.5 28.5 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 41.0 41.4 40.6 42.2 -

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