Skyline in Armenia

Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

Economic growth fell to 12.1% in Q1 from Q4’s 12.7% due to weaker growth in private spending and exports. On the flip side, growth in household consumption accelerated. In Q2, momentum likely remains upbeat: The economic activity index in April matched Q1’s growth figure as stronger trade and construction output offset a contraction in industrial production. In other news, Armenia and Azerbaijan have made significant recent progress on peace talks. Throughout May, authorities held meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, European Council President Michel and Russian President Putin. Following the talks, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. These developments bode well for securing a lasting peace agreement and, consequently, for stability and trade in the country.

Armenia Inflation

Inflation dropped to 3.2% in April from 5.4% in March, marking a 25-month low. The decline was spearheaded by softer price pressures for food and housing and utilities. Meanwhile, the Central Bank decided to hold rates at 10.75% at its 2 May meeting. Going forward, the Bank is seen easing its rates in 2023 amid softer inflation.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Armenia from 2013 to 2022.

Armenia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
GDP (USD bn) 11.5 12.5 13.6 12.6 13.9
GDP per capita (USD) 3,870 4,195 4,598 4,267 4,687
GDP (EUR bn) 10.2 10.5 12.2 11.1 11.7
GDP per capita (EUR) 3,425 3,552 4,109 3,732 3,959
GDP (AMD bn) 5,564 6,017 6,543 6,182 6,992
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.8 8.1 8.7 -5.5 13.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 5.2 7.7 -7.2 5.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 13.7 4.9 11.5 -13.8 3.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.1 -3.1 12.9 9.2 3.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 9.7 4.8 4.4 -1.5 14.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 12.3 4.2 9.0 -0.9 3.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 20.7 20.4 19.0 17.9 15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -1.6 -0.8 -5.1 -4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.7 51.2 50.1 63.5 60.2
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28.9 13.2 21.5 14.8 12.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.0 2.5 1.4 1.2 7.2
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.25 7.75
Exchange Rate (AMD per USD, eop) 484 482 475 523 480
Exchange Rate (AMD per USD, aop) 483 483 480 489 504
Exchange Rate (AMD per EUR, eop) 581 551 533 640 546
Exchange Rate (AMD per EUR, aop) 545 570 537 559 596
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -7.4 -7.3 -3.8 -3.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 2.4 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 3.8 4.5 5.1 4.1 4.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 26.2 14.1 23.3 -19.1 20.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 32.2 18.3 13.3 -19.3 16.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.3 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.1
External Debt (USD bn) 10.5 10.9 12.4 12.9 13.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 91.3 87.7 90.9 102.2 99.7

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