Skyline in Armenia

Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

GDP grew 9.1% year on year in Q2, slowing from Q1’s 12.1% expansion. A marked cooling in the industrial sector and weaker activity in the financial, mining and agricultural sectors drove the slowdown. More positively, activity in the construction, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors was upbeat, keeping overall GDP growth elevated as easing inflation boosted domestic demand. Meanwhile, merchandise export growth slowed in Q2, pointing to a decline in re-exports to Russia, which dampened the external sector. In July, economic activity growth cooled further, pointing to a sustained moderation in Q3. In other news, in recent weeks, both Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings upgraded Armenia’s credit rating to ‘BB-‘ from ‘B+’ with a stable outlook, citing strong economic growth prospects and an improvement in the public finances.

Armenia Inflation

Consumer prices ticked down 0.1% year on year in July after falling 0.5% in June. The softer decrease in prices was chiefly due to moderating declines in food and transport costs. Against this deflationary backdrop, Armenia’s Central Bank cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 10.25% on 1 August. Prices should return to inflationary territory by year-end.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Armenia from 2013 to 2022.

Armenia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
GDP (USD bn) 12.5 13.6 12.6 13.9 19.5
GDP per capita (USD) 4,195 4,598 4,266 4,687 6,589
GDP (EUR bn) 10.5 12.2 11.1 11.7 18.5
GDP per capita (EUR) 3,552 4,109 3,732 3,959 6,233
GDP (AMD bn) 6,017 6,543 6,182 6,992 8,501
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 8.1 8.7 -5.5 13.1 21.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.2 7.7 -7.2 5.8 12.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 11.5 -13.8 2.7 5.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.1 12.9 9.2 -6.2 6.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.8 4.4 -1.5 23.6 9.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.2 9.0 -0.9 3.3 7.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 20.4 19.0 17.9 15.4 13.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -0.8 -5.1 -4.5 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 51.2 50.1 63.5 60.2 46.7
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 13.2 21.5 14.8 12.8 13.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.5 1.4 1.2 7.2 8.6
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 6.00 5.50 5.25 7.75 10.75
Exchange Rate (AMD per USD, eop) 482 475 523 480 394
Exchange Rate (AMD per USD, aop) 483 480 489 504 436
Exchange Rate (AMD per EUR, eop) 551 533 640 546 420
Exchange Rate (AMD per EUR, aop) 570 537 559 596 460
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -7.2 -7.1 -4.0 -3.5 0.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 -1.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.3 5.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 4.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 7.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.1 23.3 -19.1 20.5 74.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 18.3 13.3 -19.3 16.6 58.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.2 4.1
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.1 6.5
External Debt (USD bn) 10.9 12.4 12.9 13.8 15.3
External Debt (% of GDP) 87.7 90.9 102.2 99.8 78.2

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