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Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth cooled more than expected in Q2. The slowdown came on the back of softer increases in fixed investment and exports, which suffered from the effects of higher interest rates and global headwinds. Growth should strengthen in the third quarter: In July-August, inflation stayed low, likely benefitting spending. That said, the PMI fell compared to Q2. In politics, Srettha Thavisin was appointed prime minister by Parliament on 22 August, heading a coalition of populists and pro-military parties. Some days later, he also assumed the position of finance minister. In early September, the government unveiled a series of measures it intends to deploy in order to support the economy and ease cost of living pressures. The measures include an almost USD 16 billion handout scheme for all citizens, subsidies for energy prices and the postponement of private debt payments.

Thailand Inflation

Inflation rose to 0.9% in August from 0.4% in July, remaining below the Bank of Thailand’s 1.0–3.0% target range. Inflation is projected to be within the target this year on average, with positive real interest rates acting as a moderating force. Fluctuations in commodity prices and the extent of tourism inflows from China are key factors to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Thailand from 2013 to 2022.

Thailand Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 69.4 69.6 69.8 70.0 70.1
GDP (USD bn) 506 544 500 505 495
GDP per capita (USD) 7,292 7,811 7,164 7,219 7,070
GDP (THB bn) 16,365 16,887 15,648 16,163 17,373
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.7 3.2 -7.3 3.3 7.5
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 2.1 -6.1 1.5 2.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.1 3.0 -1.5 1.8 4.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 4.0 -0.8 0.6 6.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 1.6 1.4 3.7 0.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.9 2.0 -4.8 3.1 2.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.4 -3.0 -19.7 11.1 6.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.3 -5.2 -13.9 17.8 4.1
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 3.8 -3.4 -9.5 5.8 0.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 10.8 3.2 -10.2 9.7 10.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -1.9 -6.8 -5.5 -2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 41.8 41.2 52.0 59.7 60.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.4 0.9 -0.3 2.2 5.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.1 0.7 -0.8 1.2 6.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 2.5
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.5 -0.7 -1.6 4.7 10.4
1-Day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 1.75 1.25 0.50 0.50 1.25
3-Month BIBOR (%, eop) 1.86 1.37 0.62 0.62 1.45
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.45 1.50 1.17 1.95 2.52
Stock Market (ann. var. of SET %) -10.8 1.0 -8.3 14.4 0.7
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 32.56 29.95 29.96 33.41 34.64
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, aop) 32.33 31.05 31.29 32.01 35.07
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 28.5 38.3 20.9 -10.3 -15.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.6 7.0 4.2 -2.0 -3.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 22.3 26.6 40.5 32.3 13.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 251 243 227 271 285
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 229 216 186 238 272
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.6 -3.3 -6.5 19.3 5.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.9 -5.6 -13.7 27.9 13.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 13.8 5.5 -5.0 14.6 10.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 206 224 258 246 217
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.8 12.5 16.6 12.4 9.6
External Debt (USD bn) 163 173 190 196 200
External Debt (% of GDP) 32.2 31.7 38.0 38.9 40.4

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