Thailand Economic Outlook
Tourism and export-driven economy:
Thailand is Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, with growth driven by tourism, exports, and manufacturing. The country has long been a major production hub for automobiles, electronics, and agricultural products. However, growth has been sluggish in recent years due to political instability, slow structural reforms, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely impacted its crucial tourism sector.
Tourism recovery and manufacturing strength:Thailand’s tourism industry, which accounted for around 20% of GDP before the pandemic, is rebounding as international travel resumes. The country remains a popular destination, particularly for Chinese and European travelers. Meanwhile, Thailand’s manufacturing sector remains strong, benefiting from foreign direct investment in electronics, auto parts, and renewable energy. However, the country faces competition from Vietnam and Malaysia in attracting investors.
Challenges in investment and reform:Political uncertainty and slow reform implementation have been obstacles to economic progress. Weak productivity growth, an aging population, and income inequality pose long-term challenges. While the government has launched initiatives like the Thailand 4.0 strategy to boost innovation and high-tech industries, execution remains uneven, and attracting high-quality investment remains a challenge.
Thailand’s economic outlook:Thailand’s economy is projected to see steady growth, with a tourism recovery and external demand providing short-term boosts. However, the expansion will be below the average for Asia, and structural reforms, infrastructure development, and increased productivity will be necessary to sustain long-term economic resilience. The country’s ability to move beyond low-cost manufacturing and establish itself in higher-value industries will be critical for its future prosperity.
Thailand's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 515 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 7,339 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 59% of overall GDP, manufacturing 25%, other industrial activity 7%, and agriculture 9%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 58% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 17%, fixed investment 23%, and net exports 2%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 73% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 4%, food 14%, ores and metals 3% and agricultural raw materials 4%, with other categories accounting for 2% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 21%, food 6%, ores and metals 5% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 297 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 278 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.9% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Thailand, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Thailand's fiscal deficit averaged 3.5% of GDP in the decade to 2024. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 1.2% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Thailand's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 1.1% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Thailand inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Thailand's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 2.25%, up from 2.00% a decade earlier. See our Thailand monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the baht weakened by 3.5% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the baht, click here.
Economic situation in Thailand
After surging to a two-year high in Q3, annual GDP growth likely strengthened further in Q4. Private spending and investment accelerated from Q3 in October–November, boosted by low inflation, looser monetary policy and the first disbursement from the government’s digital cash scheme. Moreover, growth in goods exports exceeded Q3’s average in the same two-month period, and tourist arrivals continued to rise robustly in Q4. However, risks to Q4’s projection are tilted to the downside due to the fallout from Typhoon Yagi and a strong monsoon triggering floods. Additionally, manufacturing output declined more sharply in October–November than in Q3. In other news, Thailand adopted the OECD’s minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on large multinational firms from 1 January as part of its bid to join the bloc. The hike will likely have an only limited impact on tax revenues and foreign investment.Thailand Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.51 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 34 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Thailand in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 51 economic indicators for Thailand from a panel of 34 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Thailand economy. To download a sample report on the Thailand's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.