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Thailand Government Consumption

Thailand Government Consumption

Government Consumption in Thailand

The Thai economy recorded average government consumption growth of 1.9% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, government consumption growth was 0.2%.

Thailand Government Consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Government Consumption (ann. var. %) for Thailand from 2014 to 2023.
Source: NESDB Thailand.

Thailand Government Consumption Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 1.6 1.4 3.7 0.1

Economic growth picks up in Q4

GDP growth improved to 1.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 1.4% in the third quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity declined 0.6% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 0.6% increase. Q4's reading marked the largest decrease since Q4 2022.

Household spending growth moderated to 7.4% year-on-year in Q4 compared to a 7.9% expansion in Q3. Government consumption dropped at a slower rate of 3.0% in Q4 (Q3: -5.0% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 0.4% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q2 2022 (Q3: +1.5% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth picked up to 4.9% year on year in the fourth quarter, which marked the best reading since Q3 2022 (Q3: +1.1% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 4.0% in Q4 (Q3: -9.4% yoy), marking the best reading since Q3 2022.

GDP growth should gain traction this year from last. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies, a further recovery in tourism and improving external demand conditions will spearhead the acceleration. That said, slowing private spending growth will limit momentum. A weaker-than-expected Chinese economy poses a downside risk.

Commenting on the release, UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya stated: “Based on the actual outturn of Q4 2023 growth confirming a slower growth momentum ahead, we revise our 2024 growth forecast lower to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 3.6%. The substantial downward revision is due to a softer household consumption weighed by tighter financial conditions, a slump in the government expenditure and public investment dragged by the delay in the FY2024 budget process in the first half of the year, amid a moderate rebound of private investment and merchandise exports”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Thai government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 16 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Thai government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Thai government consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Thai government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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