Venezuela skyline with mountains

Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

In late December, the Central Bank communicated that the economy grew 13.2% in year-on-year terms in the third quarter of 2022, down from the 23.3% expansion it reported in the previous quarter. A sharp slowdown in oil activity was behind the deceleration. Economic conditions seemingly weakened in Q4; the annual increase in oil production slowed compared to Q3 amid falling oil prices. Data for Q1 2023 is scarce, though oil prices and production increased in January from the previous month. In politics, worsening relations recently between the administration and the opposition party bode ill for President Maduro’s international reputation and could risk further sanctions. More positively, in mid-February, the country signed a deal with Colombia in order to revive bilateral trade.

Venezuela Inflation

Inflation dipped to 156% in October 2022—the last month of available data—from September’s 157%. Inflation is projected to accelerate this year. Sustained monetary financing of the fiscal deficit should fuel it. Unanticipated policy changes, volatile global commodity prices and currency depreciation pose risks.

Venezuela Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 30.4 28.9 27.8 28.0 27.6
GDP (USD bn) 144 98 - - -
GDP per capita (USD) 4 3 - - -
GDP (VES bn) 2 1 - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 615.2 52.0 - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -15.7 -19.6 - - -
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -21.1 -18.2 - - -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -16.2 -20.1 - - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -7.2 -9.1 - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -45.3 -37.5 - - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.0 -10.8 - - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -34.7 0.3 - - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -25.3 -39.3 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.2 6.9 - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -13.3 -30.3 -10.0 -5.0 -4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 133.6 - - - -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 1.0 63.0 4.0 1.0 635.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 862.6 130.0 9.0 2.0 686.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 438.1 65.0 19.0 2.0 1.0
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.51 14.89 24.12 24.00 36.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 3.0 126.0 5.0 1.0 344.3
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 10.0 638.2 46.0 1.0 4.6
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 10.0 81.9 15.0 375.0 4.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 9 9 - - -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.1 8.8 - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 22 21 - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 34 34 - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12 13 - - -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 24.2 -1.0 - - -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -26.6 6.3 - - -
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 47.7 62.2 54.0 28.0 51.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0 1 -1 0 -1
International Reserves (USD bn) 10 9 7 6 11
International Reserves (months of imports) 9.6 8.3 - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 113 108 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 78.7 110.1 - - -

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