Venezuela skyline with mountains

Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

GDP grew robustly last year on the heels of an extremely low base effect. That said, activity has likely weakened so far in 2023. Oil output grew around 5% year on year in January-September, following an average growth rate of 25% last year. Moreover, the price of the country’s oil has averaged notably lower this year to date than in 2023. Additionally, inflation skyrocketed in January-September. More positively, in mid-October, the U.S. eased several restrictions on sectors including oil and gas, gold mining and bond trading. Shortly after, state oil company PDVSA signed several spot sale contracts. In politics, in October’s opposition primary election, Maria Corina Machado was selected as the frontrunner for the 2024 presidential elections. However, in late October, the country’s top court suspended the elections results, which could cool the recent warming of ties with the U.S.

Venezuela Inflation

Inflation fell to 317.6% in September from 394.8% in August. Inflation has surged so far this year on a plunging currency. Price pressures are set to average lower in 2024 than in 2023. However, inflation will remain elevated, fueled by monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and a weaker bolívar. A faster-than-expected depreciation of the bolívar is the key upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Venezuela from 2013 to 2022.

Venezuela Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 28.9 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.9
GDP (USD bn) 204 150 106 112 -
GDP per capita (USD) 7,061 5,398 3,810 4,053 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -19.6 -27.7 -30.0 0.5 11.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -17.5 -35.1 -10.3 6.0 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -20.1 -35.9 -15.4 0.4 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -9.1 -25.7 -26.4 4.9 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -37.5 -28.7 -30.1 -3.0 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -10.8 -11.6 -48.1 -25.3 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 -22.2 -20.6 -14.4 -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -39.3 - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.9 - - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -30.3 -10.0 -5.0 -4.6 -6.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 175 205 328 251 158
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 63,257 4,946 1,287 635 354
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 130,060.2 9,585.5 2,959.8 686.4 234.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 65,374.1 19,906.0 2,355.1 1,588.5 186.7
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.89 24.12 24.00 36.00 36.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 126,985 5,521 1,376 344 254
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 636.67 46,829.06 709,900.00 4.59 17.23
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 48.36 13,356.19 234,031.65 3.28 6.70
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 8.6 - - - -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.2 - - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 20.9 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33.7 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12.8 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.0 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 6.3 - - - -
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 62.2 54.0 28.0 51.3 76.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.8 6.6 6.4 10.9 9.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.3 - - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 108 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 53.1 - - - -

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