South Asia Economic Outlook
In 2024, regional GDP growth is set to top its 2013–2022 average. Momentum in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should accelerate acutely on IMF bailouts. In India, the economy should expand less quickly, while remaining among the world’s best-performing. Extreme weather and political instability are downside risks.
South Asia Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 6.4% in March (February: 6.9%), the lowest since December 2021. Price pressures fell in all countries bar Bangladesh. Inflation is set to cool in 2024 from 2023 in all four countries on lower global agricultural prices and the lagged effect of past rate hikes. An upside risk is extreme weather.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for South Asia from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | -6.9 | 11.0 | 5.9 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.1 | -8.6 | -6.4 | -6.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 71.2 | 82.0 | 78.0 | 77.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 5.30 | 4.30 | 4.57 | 7.46 | 7.83 |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 86.04 | 84.75 | 88.32 | 102.04 | 105.49 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 534 | 644 | 679 | 624 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 23.8 | 22.2 | 21.4 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 389 | 357 | 502 | 548 | 526 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 601 | 501 | 762 | 886 | 808 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 2,019 | 1,906 | 2,211 | 2,324 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -4.4 | 9.0 | 6.6 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.1 | -4.2 | 10.9 | 6.8 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.3 | -5.9 | 15.1 | 6.3 | - |