South Asia Economic Outlook
Since January, our panelists have revised up their forecasts for South Asia’s 2024 GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points. Looking at individual countries, the economy of India will grow less quickly, but those of Pakistan and Sri Lanka will expand more sharply. Extreme weather and political instability are downside risks.
South Asia Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 6.0% in June (May: 5.7%). For July, data is only available for Pakistan and Sri Lanka; inflation fell in the former but rose in the latter. Our panelists see price pressures easing in 2024 from 2023 in all four countries as global food prices decline and past rate hikes fully filter through. An upside risk is extreme weather.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | -7.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.9 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.1 | -8.6 | -6.5 | -6.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 71.2 | 82.0 | 78.1 | 77.0 | 78.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.25 | 4.29 | 4.54 | 7.41 | 7.78 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 534 | 644 | 679 | 624 | 692 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.9 | 23.9 | 22.3 | 21.4 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 389 | 357 | 502 | 548 | 528 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 601 | 503 | 762 | 886 | 806 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,008 | 1,896 | 2,198 | 2,314 | 2,380 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.1 | -4.3 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| 5.1 | -4.2 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 3.6 | |
| 0.4 | -5.9 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 |