India

South Asia Economic Forecast

South Asia Economic Outlook

This year, GDP growth in South Asia should beat its 2013–2022 average. Momentum in Pakistan and Sri Lanka is seen accelerating especially sharply, thanks to IMF bailouts. In India, GDP growth is seen slowing, while remaining among the fastest rates in the world. Downside risks include extreme weather and political instability.

South Asia Inflation

Regional inflation dipped to 7.0% in January from 7.8% in December—one of the lowest levels since early 2022, when commodity prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Price pressures fell in all countries bar Bangladesh. Inflation is set to cool this year from last in all four countries on the lagged impact of past rate hikes and lower global agricultural prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for South Asia from 2010 to 2022.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP per Capita (USD) 2,019 1,904 2,201 2,344 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -4.4 8.5 6.7 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.1 -4.1 10.6 7.2 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.3 -6.1 12.8 10.1 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.5 -6.9 11.0 5.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.5 5.8 5.6 - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.1 -8.6 -6.5 -6.3 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 71.2 82.1 78.2 76.5 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.3 6.4 5.9 8.6 -
Policy Rate (%, eop) 5.30 4.30 4.57 7.45 -
Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) 86.03 84.77 88.47 101.85 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 0.4 -1.2 -2.4 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 389 357 502 535 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 601 501 762 879 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 534 644 679 624 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 21.8 23.8 22.3 21.2 -

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