South Asia Economic Outlook
South Asia’s GDP growth in 2024 is set to slow from 2023 and to dip below its 2013–2022 average, although our panelists have bumped up their forecasts by 0.5 percentage points on average since the start of the year. Momentum will slow in India but pick up in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Downside risks include extreme weather and political instability.
South Asia Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 6.0% in June (May: 5.7%). Price pressures fell in Bangladesh and India but rose in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. This year, our panelists see inflation easing from 2023 in all four countries as global agricultural prices cool and the impact of past rate hikes continues to kick in. Extreme weather is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | -7.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.9 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.1 | -8.6 | -6.5 | -6.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 71.2 | 82.0 | 78.1 | 77.0 | 78.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.25 | 4.29 | 4.54 | 7.41 | 7.78 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 534 | 644 | 679 | 624 | 692 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.9 | 23.9 | 22.3 | 21.4 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 389 | 357 | 502 | 548 | 528 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 601 | 503 | 762 | 886 | 806 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,008 | 1,896 | 2,198 | 2,314 | 2,380 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.1 | -4.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| 5.1 | -4.2 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 3.6 | |
| 0.4 | -5.9 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 |