Agricultural Prices

Agricultural prices increased 6.2% month on month in September, following August’s 4.8% fall.

September marked the sharpest price increase for agricultural commodities since March 2022; seven of the nine commodities tracked by our panel of analysts traded higher than in August. Supply concerns drove up prices for grains, coffee and sugar, as adverse weather—particularly in key producer Brazil—threatened yields and exports. Additionally, demand-side factors—including the start of interest rate cuts in the U.S., the adoption of new stimulus measures in China and India’s imminent festival season—were supportive across most of the agricultural complex. In contrast, cocoa prices fell, as prohibitively high chocolate prices put off customers, while the removal of India’s rice export ban lifted the commodity’s supply outlook and tempered prices.