Vietnam skyline

Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

After H1 saw growth that was around half the 10-year pre-pandemic average, the economy should be gaining momentum in H2 thanks to rate cuts by the Central Bank and improvements in the industrial and external sectors. In July–August, industrial production growth was close to triple Q2’s limp reading, and the decline in merchandise exports eased sharply. In addition, in the same two-month period, figures for retail sales and visitor arrivals showed large year-on-year expansions, hinting at resilient private consumption and services exports, respectively. In September, Vietnam upgraded its relationship with the U.S. to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” the same title it uses for China and India. In the same month, several U.S. companies announced investments in Vietnam and partnerships with Vietnamese firms. U.S.-Vietnam trade ties are likely to strengthen further going forward.

Vietnam Inflation

Inflation rose to 3.0% in August from July’s 2.1%, still well in line with the government’s target of 4.5% average inflation for 2023. The uptick was mainly driven by a near-stabilization in transport prices, following the sharp year-on-year decline registered in July. Looking ahead, our panelists expect inflation to average slightly above 2% for the remainder of the year.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Vietnam from 2013 to 2022.

Vietnam Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 94.7 96.5 97.6 98.5 99.5
GDP (USD bn) 304 332 346 370 406
GDP per capita (USD) 3,216 3,439 3,548 3,753 4,086
GDP (VND tn) 7,009 7,707 8,044 8,480 9,513
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 11.4 10.0 4.4 5.4 12.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.5 7.4 2.9 2.6 8.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.9 7.0 0.4 1.9 7.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 5.4 1.2 4.7 3.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.2 7.7 4.1 3.7 6.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 12.3 6.2 4.1 13.9 4.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.6 4.9 3.3 15.8 2.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 8.4 6.9 2.4 2.1 15.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 2.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -0.4 -2.9 -3.4 -2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 43.5 40.8 41.3 39.3 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.4 14.8 14.5 10.7 6.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.0 5.2 0.2 1.8 4.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 2.8 3.2 1.8 3.2
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.1 1.3 -0.6 2.9 4.2
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 6.25 6.00 4.00 4.00 6.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of HSX %) -9.3 7.7 14.9 35.7 -32.8
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 23,195 23,173 23,083 22,790 23,575
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, aop) 23,025 23,227 23,236 22,936 23,409
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 6.1 12.2 15.1 -8.1 -1.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 3.7 4.4 -2.2 -0.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 16.5 21.2 30.7 15.7 25.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 244 264 283 336 372
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 227 243 252 320 346
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.3 8.4 7.0 18.9 10.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 11.2 7.0 3.7 27.2 7.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 15.5 16.1 15.8 15.7 17.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 55.5 78.3 94.8 109.4 86.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.1 3.0
External Debt (USD bn) 107 117 125 136 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 35.1 35.4 36.1 36.8 -

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