Vietnam Economic Outlook
A rising economic powerhouse:
Vietnam has emerged as one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies, benefiting from strong foreign investment, a young labor force, and rapid industrialization. Over the past decade, Vietnam has positioned itself as a key player in global supply chains, particularly in electronics, textiles, and machinery. The country’s GDP growth has averaged around 6-7% annually, outpacing regional peers.
Manufacturing and export-led growth:Vietnam has become a major manufacturing hub, attracting multinational firms looking for alternatives to China due to rising costs and trade tensions. The country is now a key production base for electronics giants like Samsung and Apple suppliers. Additionally, Vietnam’s free trade agreements, including CPTPP and RCEP, have strengthened its export competitiveness.
Investment in infrastructure and technology:The government has prioritized infrastructure development, digital transformation, and renewable energy as key growth drivers. Vietnam is also investing heavily in semiconductors and electric vehicles to move up the value chain. However, challenges remain, including weak banking sector oversight, rising debt, and regulatory hurdles that deter some investors.
Vietnam’s economic prospects:Vietnam’s economy is set to continue growing strongly, but risks such as global demand slowdowns, inflation, and external trade dependencies remain. If the country successfully navigates these challenges while boosting innovation and upgrading its workforce skills, it has the potential to become a leading industrial economy in Asia. Its ability to balance economic liberalization with state intervention will shape its long-term success.
Vietnam's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 457 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 457 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 4,531 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 4,531 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 6.2% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 6.2% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 43% of overall GDP, manufacturing 24%, other industrial activity 21%, and agriculture 12%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 55% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 9%, fixed investment 33%, and net exports 3%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 86% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 1%, food 8%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other categories accounting for 2% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 75% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 7%, food 9%, ores and metals 4% and agricultural raw materials 3%, with other goods accounting for 2% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 405 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 362 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 6.2% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Vietnam, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Vietnam's fiscal deficit averaged 2.6% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 2.3% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Vietnam's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 2.9% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Vietnam inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Vietnam's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, down from 6.50% a decade earlier. See our Vietnam monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the dong weakened by 16.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the dong, click here.
Economic situation in Vietnam
Our panel expects annual GDP growth to hover around Q4 2024’s strong result in Q1. Available data for January–February is upbeat: Goods exports continued to expand at a double-digit rate, and industrial output rose faster than in Q4. Moreover, tourist inflows remained strong and retail sales gained momentum from the prior quarter, bolstered by the New Lunar Year holidays. In other news, in March, Vietnam's Industry and Trade Minister met with his U.S. counterpart to bolster ties between the countries and stave off tariff hikes—the U.S. is Vietnam’s top export market. In recent months, Vietnam has sought to strengthen ties with the U.S. by announcing its willingness to increase imports of U.S. LNG and agricultural products, to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel, and to clear a legal path for Elon Musk’s Starlink to offer satellite internet and security services.Vietnam Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.49 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 26 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Vietnam in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 49 economic indicators for Vietnam from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Vietnam economy. To download a sample report on the Vietnam's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.