Cityscape in Egypt

Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

After decelerating in the prior quarter, annual GDP growth was likely moderate in Q3 FY 2023 (January–March 2023). Both headline and core inflation accelerated to multi-year highs in the quarter as the Egyptian pound weakened nearly 20% against the USD, which will have hurt purchasing power. A more aggressive monetary policy stance likely further pressured activity. However, surging tourist arrivals will have provided support. In Q4, the outlook is improving: In April, inflation eased slightly and the non-oil PMI rose to a six-month high. In other news, in early May, Fitch Ratings downgraded Egypt’s rating to ‘B’ with a negative outlook and Moody’s placed the ‘B3’ rating under review for a downgrade. The rating agencies cited increasing risks to the country’s ability to meet financing needs amid constrained financing conditions.

Egypt Inflation

Inflation eased to a three-month low of 30.5% in April (March: 32.6%). Similarly, core inflation waned to 38.6%. However, both remained above the Central Bank’s 5.0–9.0% target range. Spiraling food prices and the steep weakening of the pound have fueled inflation recently. Average inflation should peak in coming quarters, although further currency depreciation is an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Egypt from 2013 to 2022.

Egypt Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 95.2 97.1 98.9 100.6 102.1
GDP (USD bn) 265 263 318 382 423
GDP per capita (USD) 2,786 2,709 3,212 3,800 4,146
GDP (EGP bn) 3,656 4,666 5,596 6,153 6,663
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 34.9 27.6 19.9 9.9 8.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 5.3 5.5 3.6 3.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 8.0 1.2 1.5 7.3 6.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -12.9 1.7 2.6 7.9 3.4
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 17.8 8.7 11.9 -18.4 -2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 49.8 32.6 -2.4 -23.5 -14.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 44.3 7.9 -8.6 -18.6 0.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 7.5 2.7 1.7 -10.1 9.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.8 9.9 7.9 8.0 7.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -10.7 -8.9 -7.5 -7.3 -6.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 108.0 97.3 90.2 87.5 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 20.9 13.3 13.3 19.7 18.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 21.9 12.0 7.0 5.4 5.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 29.5 14.4 9.2 5.1 5.2
Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) 18.75 16.75 12.25 8.25 8.25
Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, eop) 17.8 17.9 16.1 15.7 15.7
Exchange Rate (EGP per USD, aop) 17.8 17.8 16.8 15.8 15.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14 -6 -11 -11 -18
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -2.3 -3.4 -2.9 -4.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -37.3 -37.3 -38.0 -36.5 -42.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22 26 28 26 29
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 59 63 67 63 71
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 16.2 18.9 10.3 -7.4 8.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.8 6.9 5.4 -5.5 12.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 7 8 9 6 5
International Reserves (USD bn) 31 44 44 38 41
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.4 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.9
External Debt (USD bn) 79 93 109 123 138
External Debt (% of GDP) 29.8 35.2 34.2 32.3 32.6

Free Sample Report

Interested in Egypt economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest