Ireland skyline

Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

GDP rebounded less than initially thought in Q2, according to a revised reading by the statistics office, which also showed that the rebound in Q2 was driven by domestic demand, with private consumption, government spending and fixed investment all strengthening. In Q3, our panelists expect GDP to expand more speedily in quarterly terms. Data suggests that financial pressures on Irish households are gradually softening: Compared to Q2, in July–August, both inflation and the unemployment rate eased. That said, actual data on private spending has been negative: Compared to Q2, retail sales declined in July and services activity rose less in July–August. In other news, in September, the government unveiled plans to simplify how it taxes foreign-sourced dividends from 2025 onward. The move should help safeguard investment in Ireland ahead.

Ireland Inflation

Harmonized inflation rose to 4.9% in August from 4.6% in July. The higher reading was driven by a sharper rise in housing and utilities prices. Inflation should trend downward ahead due to a higher base of comparison, softer domestic demand.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ireland from 2013 to 2022.

Ireland Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.6 4.8 6.2 5.1 4.4
Population (million) 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1
GDP (EUR bn) 327 356 375 434 506
GDP per capita (EUR) 67,016 72,006 75,170 86,159 98,614
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.7 8.8 5.3 15.7 16.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 8.5 5.3 6.6 15.1 9.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.3 42.0 -10.7 -16.7 8.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.2 2.6 -9.9 8.4 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.5 6.5 11.6 6.3 3.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -8.2 100.7 -16.5 -40.4 5.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.8 11.8 11.5 15.1 13.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.5 42.3 -1.7 -7.5 15.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.5 6.5 16.7 29.1 17.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.1 -2.5 9.3 -0.8
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 4.4 6.0 6.9 5.2 7.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.8 5.0 5.9 6.2 4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.1 0.5 -5.0 -1.6 1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 63.0 57.0 58.4 55.4 44.7
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 0.8 1.1 -1.0 5.7 8.2
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 0.9 -0.5 2.4 8.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 0.5 0.9 -0.4 2.3 7.8
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, aop) -2.4 -1.0 -8.7 -5.2 5.1
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50
ECB Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) -0.40 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57 2.13
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.89 0.11 -0.32 0.25 3.06
Stock Market (var. of ISEQ %) -22.1 31.1 2.7 14.5 -15.8
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.05
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 16.0 -70.8 -24.5 59.5 54.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.9 -19.9 -6.5 13.7 10.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 109 118 143 169 202
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) -10.5 133.1 62.6 -4.3 1.4

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