Ireland skyline

Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

GDP rebounded in Q2 compared to Q1. Growth was driven by the multinational sector, according to the statistical office. The volatile nature of the sector means that large revisions to the GDP figure remain possible. Turning to Q3, our panelists expect GDP to continue growing, albeit more slowly. Data for the quarter so far suggests that financial pressures on Irish households are gradually abating: Compared to Q2, inflation and the unemployment rate eased in July, and consumer confidence rose over July–August. This is likely supporting services activity, which continued to surge in July, according to PMI data. In politics, in July, the Prime Minister said the October budget will contain handouts to help businesses and households with winter energy bills. The move should support private spending ahead, without imperiling the nation’s finances thanks to a recently strong corporate tax intake.

Ireland Inflation

Harmonized inflation fell to 4.6% in July from 4.8% in June. The lower reading was driven by a softer rise in food prices and a larger fall in transport prices. Inflation should continue to trend downward ahead due to a tougher base effect, weaker domestic demand and lower average energy prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ireland from 2013 to 2022.

Ireland Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1
GDP (EUR bn) 327 356 375 434 506
GDP per capita (EUR) 67,016 72,006 75,170 86,159 98,614
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.7 8.8 5.3 15.7 16.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 8.5 5.3 6.6 15.1 9.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.3 42.0 -10.7 -16.7 8.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.2 2.6 -9.9 8.4 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.5 6.5 11.6 6.3 3.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -8.2 100.7 -16.5 -40.4 5.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.8 11.8 11.5 15.1 13.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.5 42.3 -1.7 -7.5 15.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.5 6.5 16.7 29.1 17.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.1 -2.5 9.3 -0.8
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 4.4 6.0 6.9 5.2 7.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.8 5.0 5.9 6.2 4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.1 0.5 -5.0 -1.6 1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 63.0 57.0 58.4 55.4 44.7
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 0.8 1.1 -1.0 5.7 8.2
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 0.9 -0.5 2.4 8.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 0.5 0.9 -0.4 2.3 7.8
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, aop) -2.4 -1.0 -8.7 -5.2 5.1
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50
ECB Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) -0.40 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57 2.13
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.89 0.11 -0.32 0.25 3.06
Stock Market (var. of ISEQ %) -22.1 31.1 2.7 14.5 -15.8
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.05
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 16.0 -70.8 -24.5 59.5 54.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.9 -19.9 -6.5 13.7 10.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 109 118 143 169 202
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) -10.5 133.1 62.6 -4.3 1.4

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