Ireland Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop)

Harmonized inflation increases in February

Harmonized inflation came in at 8.1% in February, which was up from January’s 7.5%. The bounce back in price pressures was primarily driven by rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for transportation increased at a quicker pace.

The trend pointed up slightly, with annual average harmonized inflation coming in at 8.5% in February (January: 8.3%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose to 8.5% in February from the previous month’s 7.8%.

Finally, harmonized consumer prices rose 1.49% in February over the previous month, swinging from January’s 0.95% drop. February’s result marked the highest reading since October 2022.

Our panelists see inflation declining to 3.1% by Q4 2023. Despite being substantially above the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 0.4%, this inflation figure would be the lowest since Q3 2021. A tougher base effect and government measures will bring price pressures down gradually. In February, the government unveiled a EUR 505 million cost-of-living package, and in March cut the tax on gasoline. Prime Minister Varadkar said in March that the government was considering further measures such as subsidizing several state services and higher education.