Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
GDP growth in the region will ebb this year from 2022 as higher inflation and interest rates depress purchasing power and demand. Meanwhile, heightened insecurity and conflict, elevated unemployment and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern on food security will restrain activity. Increasing debt distress amid high interest rates is a downside risk.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation receded to a one-year low of 16.6% in July, and available data shows the disinflationary trend continued in August in most countries. Meanwhile, 2023 inflation forecasts have continuously been upwardly revised in recent months following the onset of El Niño and the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal. Inflation will average higher than in 2022 this year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,890 | 1,870 | 1,734 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.3 | 2.8 | -1.7 | 4.9 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | 2.0 | -3.6 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.1 | 2.9 | -7.7 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 4.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 23.3 | 22.0 | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 47.7 | 49.4 | 56.5 | 55.6 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.8 | 11.3 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 15.3 |
| Base Rate (%, eop) | 10.41 | 9.91 | 8.44 | 8.29 | 11.70 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.9 | -3.1 | -2.4 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 154 | 150 | 138 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.6 | 40.1 | 44.3 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 246 | 262 | 217 | 266 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 287 | 280 | 229 | 314 | - |
| Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) | 404 | 436 | 478 | 469 | 503 |