South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Forecast

Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth in the region will ebb this year from 2022 as higher inflation and interest rates depress purchasing power and demand. Meanwhile, heightened insecurity and conflict, elevated unemployment and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern on food security will restrain activity. Increasing debt distress amid high interest rates is a downside risk.

Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation

Regional inflation receded to a one-year low of 16.6% in July, and available data shows the disinflationary trend continued in August in most countries. Meanwhile, 2023 inflation forecasts have continuously been upwardly revised in recent months following the onset of El Niño and the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal. Inflation will average higher than in 2022 this year.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2020.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP per capita (USD) 1,890 1,870 1,734 - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.8 -1.7 4.9 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.0 -3.6 - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.1 2.9 -7.7 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.6 4.9 1.0 4.2 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 23.3 22.0 - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -4.6 -6.9 -5.2 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 47.7 49.4 56.5 55.6 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 246 262 217 266 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 287 280 229 314 -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 404 436 478 469 503
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.8 11.3 17.1 11.7 15.3
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 10.41 9.91 8.44 8.29 11.70
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -3.1 -2.4 - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 154 150 138 - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 37.6 40.1 44.3 - -

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