Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Lower inflation and a less restrictive monetary policy backdrop will jolt private consumption and investment growth in 2025, translating in turn into a stronger GDP expansion versus 2024 in almost all countries. Continued debt deals plus inflows of funds and investment will provide tailwinds. Extreme weather and political uncertainty are key downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation decelerated further in August, and again in September in the majority of those countries with available data. Regional average inflation is expected to gradually decelerate through 2029. In 2025, past interest rate hikes will drive disinflation, although ailing currencies and extreme weather phenomena remain key upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 14.9 | 15.0 | 18.2 | 16.4 | 16.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.1 | -4.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.2 | 55.8 | 54.9 | 55.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.7 | 15.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.09 | 8.50 | 8.29 | 11.63 | 13.21 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.8 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 278 | 229 | 315 | 367 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | 323 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 150 | 138 | - | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.7 | 44.7 | 41.0 | 39.0 | - |
| 1.7 | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | - | |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,963 | 1,770 | 1,962 | 2,060 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.9 | 3.6 | - |
| 4.8 | -9.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | - |