Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth should remain one of the strongest in the world this year; fast population growth, digitalization and urbanization, plus investment in infrastructure and in mining projects that increase output will support overall GDP growth. A prolonged Iran war and worsening social unrest amid elevated joblessness are key downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation rose for a third month running in May and hit a six-month high of 7.5% (April: 7.0%), reversing a steady downtrend that began in late 2024. Inflation rose further in over half of the countries with available data in June. Our panelists now see 2026 inflation easing less sharply vs 2025 than anticipated at the start of 2026 due to the Iran energy shock.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 16.4 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 18.2 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -3.0 | 5.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.3 | 50.1 | 55.5 | 59.5 | 57.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.2 | 44.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 392 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.46 | 17.88 | 17.80 | 15.71 | 14.39 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,177 | 2,295 | 2,006 | 1,748 | 1,932 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 356 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.6 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 159 | 150 | 147 | 168 | 187 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -4.1 | -3.8 | -3.6 | -3.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |