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Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

National accounts data revealed that annual economic growth accelerated to 4.2% in Q4 from Q3’s 3.6%. Looking at the details of the release, agricultural and mining output accelerated; however, the downturn in manufacturing intensified. Shifting to this year, the panorama seems to be worsening: The PMI swung into contractionary territory in January due to cooling demand and weaker output. More positively, price pressures for both producers and consumers eased. In other news, on 3 February, the CEO of French energy company TotalEnergies visited the gas-producing Cabo Delgado province and met with President Nyusi. The company announced that an independent assessment of the security situation in the northern province would be completed by end-February. Peace in the area is required for the completion of infrastructure work critical to the gas sector.

Mozambique Inflation

Inflation came in at 9.8% in January, down from December’s 10.9%. The ongoing downtrend of price pressures prompted the Central Bank to maintain its key rate at 17.25% on 25 January. This year, inflation is forecast to decelerate further and average below the Bank’s 10.0% target.

Mozambique Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 28.6 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.1
GDP (USD bn) 13.3 14.8 15.4 14.2 15.8
GDP per capita (USD) 463 503 509 455 491
GDP (MZN bn) 841 896 963 983 1
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 11.7 6.5 7.5 2.2 5.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.7 3.4 2.3 -1.2 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.6 4.9 3.1 -1.9 6.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 -5.8 3.6 -21.5 -4.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -17.1 42.4 3.2 -3.4 -2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.9 47.9 -9.5 -27.0 7.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -12.9 43.4 -1.5 -22.4 2.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -5.6 0.1 -5.4 -3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 104.2 106.7 99.0 120.0 106.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 7.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 15.1 3.9 2.8 3.5 6.4
Policy Rate (%, eop) 19.50 14.25 12.75 10.25 13.25
Exchange Rate (MZN per USD, eop) 58.5 61.6 62.4 74.6 64.1
Exchange Rate (MZN per USD, aop) 63.4 60.5 62.4 69.3 65.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.4 -4.4 -2.9 -3.9 -3.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -18.2 -29.9 -19.1 -27.3 -22.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -1.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 4.7 5.2 4.7 3.6 5.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 5.2 6.2 6.8 5.9 7.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 42.0 10.0 -10.2 -23.1 55.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.4 18.1 9.5 -12.9 33.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.3 2.7 2.2 3.0 5.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.3 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.6 5.9 6.8 8.2 5.3
External Debt (USD bn) 46.3 50.2 54.7 59.1 62.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 349.7 339.0 354.6 416.0 398.8

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