Mozambique Economic Outlook
A resource-rich but fragile economy:
Mozambique has significant natural resource wealth, particularly in coal and natural gas, yet remains one of the world’s poorest countries. The discovery of vast offshore gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin has positioned the country as a future major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. However, political instability, debt distress, and security challenges from an ongoing insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado region have hindered economic development.
LNG potential and investment:Mozambique's LNG sector has attracted multi-billion-dollar investments from global energy firms, with TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Eni leading the way. The first gas production is expected in the mid-2020s, potentially transforming the country’s economic prospects. If successfully managed, LNG exports could significantly boost government revenue and foreign exchange reserves. However, delays due to security risks and global energy price volatility pose challenges.
Debt and governance challenges:Mozambique faced a major financial crisis following the revelation of hidden government debt in 2016, which led to a default and loss of international investor confidence. The country has since been working on debt restructuring agreements and strengthening governance reforms to restore credibility. While macroeconomic stability has improved, concerns remain about public finance management and corruption.
Mozambique’s economic projections:Mozambique’s economic growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by LNG projects, infrastructure development, and agriculture. However, security threats in Cabo Delgado, high poverty levels, and weak institutional capacity remain risks to long-term growth. Successful exploitation of natural resources, coupled with sound economic policies, could lift Mozambique into a new era of prosperity. However, failure to address governance issues may limit the benefits of resource wealth.
Mozambique's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 21.0 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 619 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 4.1% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 41% of overall GDP, manufacturing 9%, other industrial activity 23%, and agriculture 27%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 75% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 17%, fixed investment 39%, and net exports -31%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 7% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 58%, food 11%, ores and metals 23% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 59% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 21%, food 17%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 8 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 9 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 4.1% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Mozambique, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Mozambique's fiscal deficit averaged 4.3% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 3.7% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Mozambique's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 6.9% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Mozambique inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Mozambique's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 12.75%, down from 19.50% a decade earlier. See our Mozambique monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the metical weakened by 48.2% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the metical, click here.
Economic situation in Mozambique
The economy likely slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q4, with higher inflation stifling domestic demand. Moreover, the panorama soured following October’s fraudulent general election. Nationwide protests mounted, resulting in hundreds of deaths, and the closure of multiple mines, roads and ports plus the main border crossing with South Africa. The demonstrations hit economic activity—further strained by a cyclone that landed in mid-December—and will have cost the government upward of USD 650 million, ballooning the public debt. Turning to the new year, after President Daniel Chapo was inaugurated in January, the opposition leader offered to halt the protests for three months, so long as the government implements a reform agenda targeting inequality and corruption; the government is unlikely to meet his demands, and so demonstrations should resume.Mozambique Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.42 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 12 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Mozambique in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 42 economic indicators for Mozambique from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Mozambique economy. To download a sample report on the Mozambique's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.