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Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

The economy grew 4.7% year-on-year in Q2 (Q1: +4.2%), thanks to a marked acceleration in mining output more than offsetting a softer expansion in agricultural activity and a sharper decline in manufacturing production. Turning to the current quarter, available data points to healthy activity. The private sector PMI remained in expansionary terrain in July–August, matching Q2’s pace of growth. Moreover, inflation continued to decline in the same two-month period, which bodes well for household spending. In other news, in late August, Australian company Triton secured a 25-year mining concession for the Cobra Plains graphite deposit. This will provide a significant boost to the external sector, but production is unlikely to start before late 2024 at the earliest.

Mozambique Inflation

Inflation fell to an over two-year low of 4.9% in August from July’s 5.7%. The decline was driven by softer price pressures for food, housing and utilities, and transportation. Inflation is set to average lower this year relative to last, thanks to the normalization of global supply chains. That said, robust activity will keep inflation above the average of the last ten years.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mozambique from 2013 to 2022.

Mozambique Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.1 33.0
GDP (USD bn) 15.0 15.5 14.3 16.2 18.4
GDP per capita (USD) 510 513 458 505 560
GDP (MZN bn) 906 970 989 1,058 1,175
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.4 7.1 1.9 7.0 11.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 2.3 -1.2 2.4 4.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.1 5.9 -0.6 5.8 4.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.6 5.8 -7.8 -4.0 -0.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 34.1 -20.2 9.1 0.7 33.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 17.3 -2.7 -15.2 16.8 21.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 28.2 -11.2 -4.2 9.7 30.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.6 0.1 -5.4 -3.6 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 106.7 99.0 120.0 107.2 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.5 3.9 4.2 7.2 10.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.4 2.9 3.6 6.4 10.3
Policy Rate (%, eop) 14.25 12.75 10.25 13.25 17.25
Exchange Rate (MZN per USD, eop) 61.85 61.65 74.61 63.70 63.72
Exchange Rate (MZN per USD, aop) 60.42 62.46 69.29 65.38 63.70
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.8 -2.9 -3.9 -3.6 -6.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -31.9 -19.0 -27.3 -22.2 -34.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.3 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -5.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 5.0 4.7 3.6 5.6 8.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6.3 6.8 5.9 7.8 13.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 6.1 -6.9 -23.1 55.6 48.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 20.9 7.0 -12.9 33.2 70.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 2.2 3.0 5.1 2.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.4 2.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.8 6.8 8.2 5.3 2.6
External Debt (USD bn) 50.2 54.7 59.1 62.8 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 335 352 414 388 -

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