The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

After Q2’s rebound, annual growth likely eased in Q3 from Q2: The Ministry of Economy estimated that GDP rose 5.3% in January–September year on year (H1: +4.5% yoy). The collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July denting export capacity and Russia’s subsequent attacks on port cities and infrastructure constrained activity. However, robust business confidence in the quarter and the start of monetary policy easing in July boded well for private-sector activity. In Q4, growth is likely remaining resilient due to lower interest rates, cooling inflation and the resumption of grain exports through alternative routes. In other news, Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF in November, which would unlock a USD 900 million disbursement by year-end. Meanwhile, EU accession talks could begin as early as December, following a recommendation of the European Commission in November.

Ukraine Inflation

October saw inflation ease to 5.3% (September: 7.1%), marking a 34-month low. Inflationary pressures should slow next year from 2023’s average on a favorable base effect, subsiding supply shocks and lower commodity prices year on year. Stronger-than-expected wage growth, war-induced supply shocks and spikes in global commodity prices pose upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2013 to 2022.

Ukraine Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 44.4 44.2 43.9 43.5 39.7
GDP (USD bn) 131 154 156 199 159
GDP per capita (USD) 2,939 3,477 3,554 4,577 4,005
GDP (EUR bn) 111 137 137 168 152
GDP per capita (EUR) 2,489 3,105 3,109 3,868 3,817
GDP (UAH bn) 3,561 3,978 4,222 5,451 5,191
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 19.3 11.7 6.1 29.1 -4.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.2 -3.8 3.5 -29.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 10.9 1.7 6.9 -26.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 -13.6 -0.7 0.8 18.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 16.6 11.7 -21.3 9.3 -34.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.4 7.3 -5.8 -8.6 -42.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.8 5.7 -6.4 14.2 -18.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.0 -0.5 -4.5 1.9 -36.7
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.6 11.6 7.2 10.9 -24.5
Wages (ann. var. %) 24.8 18.5 10.4 20.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.0 8.5 9.2 10.0 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.2 -5.3 -3.4 -16.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 60.9 50.2 60.4 49.0 78.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.4 12.7 28.7 12.0 20.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9.8 4.1 5.0 10.0 26.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.3 20.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) 17.4 4.1 -1.6 62.2 -
Key Policy Rate (%, eop) 18.00 13.50 6.00 9.00 25.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of PFTS %) 77.5 -8.9 -1.9 4.6 -0.7
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, eop) 27.82 23.81 28.57 27.37 37.03
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, aop) 27.26 25.88 27.05 27.36 32.65
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, eop) 31.80 26.72 34.97 31.13 39.51
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, aop) 32.18 28.98 30.92 32.37 34.25
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.4 -4.1 5.3 -3.9 8.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -2.7 3.4 -1.9 5.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.7 -14.3 -6.8 -6.6 -14.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 43.3 46.1 45.1 63.1 40.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 56.1 60.4 51.9 69.8 55.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 9.2 6.3 -2.1 39.8 -35.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.6 7.7 -14.0 34.3 -20.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.7 6.0 0.0 7.3 0.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 20.8 25.3 29.1 30.9 28.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.0 6.7 5.3 6.2
External Debt (USD bn) 115 122 126 130 131
External Debt (% of GDP) 87.8 79.2 80.5 65.1 82.4

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