The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

In Q1 2023, GDP likely declined at a softer year-on-year pace. Strengthening consumer sentiment, falling inflation and improvements in the energy sector in March supported activity. Merchandise exports also rebounded in March. In Q2, the economy is likely returning to growth. In April, business expectations were optimistic for the first time since October 2021, with an improving outlook for trade and industrial activity. Less positively, credit demand weakened further in April, boding ill for spending. Additionally, despite the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 17 May, Ukrainian exports in May hit the lowest level since August 2022, when the Initiative was launched. On 30 May, a staff-level agreement was reached with the IMF on the first review of the Extended Fund Facility program, aiming to support economic and financial stability, debt sustainability and EU accession. The agreement will unlock a USD 900 million disbursement

Ukraine Inflation

Inflation fell to a one-year low of 17.9% in April (March: 21.3%) on softer food and transport price growth. In 2023, a strong base effect, muted demand and elevated interest rates should keep a lid on prices. That said, inflation will exceed the Central Bank’s 5.0% target due to spillovers from the war. Commodity price volatility and goods shortages pose upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2013 to 2022.

Ukraine Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 44.7 44.4 44.2 43.9 43.5
GDP (USD bn) 112 131 154 156 199
GDP per capita (USD) 2,511 2,939 3,476 3,554 4,577
GDP (EUR bn) 99 111 137 137 168
GDP per capita (EUR) 2,223 2,489 3,105 3,109 3,868
GDP (UAH bn) 2,984 3,561 3,978 4,222 5,451
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 25.1 19.3 11.7 6.1 29.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.4 3.5 3.2 -3.8 3.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.5 9.3 10.9 1.7 6.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.2 -0.1 -13.6 -0.7 0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 16.1 16.6 11.7 -21.3 9.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.9 -1.4 7.3 -5.8 -8.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 12.9 2.8 5.7 -6.4 14.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 3.0 -0.5 -4.5 1.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.6 5.6 11.6 7.2 10.9
Wages (ann. var. %) 37.0 24.8 18.5 10.4 20.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.7 9.0 8.5 9.2 10.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -1.9 -2.2 -5.3 -3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 71.8 60.9 50.2 60.4 49.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.6 5.4 12.7 28.7 12.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 13.7 9.8 4.1 5.0 10.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 14.4 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.4
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) 16.6 14.2 -7.4 14.2 62.2
Key Policy Rate (%, eop) 14.50 18.00 13.50 6.00 9.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of PFTS %) 18.8 77.5 -8.9 -1.9 4.6
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, eop) 28.3 27.8 23.8 28.6 27.4
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, aop) 26.61 27.26 25.89 27.05 27.36
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, eop) 33.9 31.8 26.7 35.0 31.1
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, aop) 30.05 32.18 28.98 30.92 32.37
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 -6.4 -4.1 5.3 -3.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -4.9 -2.7 3.4 -1.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -9.7 -12.7 -14.3 -6.8 -6.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 39.7 43.3 46.1 45.1 63.1
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 49.4 56.1 60.4 51.9 69.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 18.3 9.2 6.3 -2.1 39.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 21.9 13.6 7.7 -14.0 34.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.7 4.7 6.0 0.0 6.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 18.8 20.8 25.3 29.1 30.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.6 4.5 5.0 6.7 5.3
External Debt (USD bn) 115 115 122 126 130
External Debt (% of GDP) 103.0 87.8 79.2 80.5 65.1

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