The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

GDP likely rebounded strongly in Q2 year on year. Optimism in the private sector remained robust on reviving demand and output. Goods imports expanded at the briskest pace since Q4 2021 in Q2, pointing to firming domestic demand. Merchandise exports also rebounded from Q1’s slump, despite Ukrainian seaborne grain shipments falling over 40% in Q2 from Q1. However, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June hit industrial and agricultural activity. In Q3, GDP growth is likely cooling. July’s collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain storage facilities bode ill for exports and infrastructure. That said, the start of the Central Bank’s loosening cycle in July should be aiding activity. Meanwhile, in late August, the U.S. announced a USD 250 million military aid package, while Korea said it would provide USD 394 million for reconstruction and humanitarian relief in 2024.

Ukraine Inflation

Inflation ebbed to 11.3% in July (June: 12.8%) on lower food price growth. Average inflation should nearly halve from last year’s peak in 2023 on a high base effect and interest rates. Stronger-than-expected activity, additional infrastructure damage and potential goods shortages pose upside risks. The speed of monetary policy easing is also a factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2013 to 2022.

Ukraine Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 44.4 44.2 43.9 43.5 39.7
GDP (USD bn) 131 154 156 199 159
GDP per capita (USD) 2,939 3,477 3,554 4,577 4,005
GDP (EUR bn) 111 137 137 168 152
GDP per capita (EUR) 2,489 3,105 3,109 3,868 3,817
GDP (UAH bn) 3,561 3,978 4,222 5,451 5,191
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 19.3 11.7 6.1 29.1 -4.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.2 -3.8 3.5 -29.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 10.9 1.7 6.9 -26.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 -13.6 -0.7 0.8 18.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 16.6 11.7 -21.3 9.3 -34.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.4 7.3 -5.8 -8.6 -42.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.8 5.7 -6.4 14.2 -18.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.0 -0.5 -4.5 1.9 -36.7
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.6 11.6 7.2 10.9 -24.5
Wages (ann. var. %) 24.8 18.5 10.4 20.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.0 8.5 9.2 10.0 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.2 -5.3 -3.4 -16.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 60.9 50.2 60.4 49.0 78.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.4 12.7 28.7 12.0 20.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9.8 4.1 5.0 10.0 26.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.3 20.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) 17.4 4.1 -1.6 62.2 -
Key Policy Rate (%, eop) 18.00 13.50 6.00 9.00 25.00
Stock Market (ann. var. of PFTS %) 77.5 -8.9 -1.9 4.6 -0.7
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, eop) 27.82 23.81 28.57 27.37 37.03
Exchange Rate (UAH per USD, aop) 27.26 25.88 27.05 27.36 32.65
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, eop) 31.80 26.72 34.97 31.13 39.51
Exchange Rate (UAH per EUR, aop) 32.18 28.98 30.92 32.37 34.25
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.4 -4.1 5.3 -3.9 8.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -2.7 3.4 -1.9 5.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.7 -14.3 -6.8 -6.6 -14.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 43.3 46.1 45.1 63.1 40.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 56.1 60.4 51.9 69.8 55.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 9.2 6.3 -2.1 39.8 -35.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.6 7.7 -14.0 34.3 -20.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.7 6.0 0.0 7.3 0.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 20.8 25.3 29.1 30.9 28.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.0 6.7 5.3 6.2
External Debt (USD bn) 115 122 126 130 131
External Debt (% of GDP) 87.8 79.2 80.5 65.1 82.4

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