Ukraine Economic Outlook
War-torn economy:
Ukraine, a country with vast agricultural and industrial potential, has been significantly impacted by Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Before the war, Ukraine was growing as a key European economy, with a GDP of over $200 billion. However, the war has devastated infrastructure, displaced millions, and drastically reduced economic output. In 2022, GDP contracted by over 30%, with some recovery seen in 2023 as international aid and wartime production supported economic activity. The war has led to severe fiscal strain, with a budget deficit exceeding 20% of GDP, largely financed by Western aid.
Agricultural powerhouse:Ukraine has long been known as the "breadbasket of Europe" due to its fertile black soil and vast agricultural sector. It is a top global exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. However, the war has disrupted farming, with mined fields, labor shortages, and damaged infrastructure complicating exports. The Black Sea grain deal—negotiated with Russia and Turkey to allow food exports—was repeatedly threatened and eventually collapsed in 2023, forcing Ukraine to rely more on land and river transport to ship agricultural goods. Despite the challenges, agriculture remains a crucial part of Ukraine’s economy, accounting for roughly 10% of GDP and 40% of exports.
Industrial base and reconstruction needs:Ukraine historically had a significant industrial sector, including steel production, machinery, and energy. However, many factories and energy facilities have been destroyed or are operating below capacity due to the war. The country also has vast untapped mineral reserves, including lithium and rare earth metals, which could play a key role in the future economy. Looking ahead, Ukraine’s reconstruction needs are estimated at over $400 billion, offering a massive opportunity for investment in infrastructure, housing, and energy. International financial institutions and Western governments have pledged support, but long-term economic stabilization depends on security and governance reforms.
Ukraine’s economic outlook:The Ukrainian economy will remain highly dependent on foreign aid and the course of the war in the near term. If Ukraine can secure a lasting peace and attract investment, growth prospects are strong due to its agricultural potential, educated workforce, and proximity to European markets. EU accession talks, which began in 2023, provide an incentive for economic and governance reforms, though the process will take years. The main risks to the outlook include continued military conflict, corruption, and weak institutional capacity. In the long run, a rebuilt Ukraine could emerge as an attractive investment destination, but only if security and economic reforms are successfully implemented.
Ukraine's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 178 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 4,720 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.6% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 61% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8%, other industrial activity 24%, and agriculture 7%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 64% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 42%, fixed investment 15%, and net exports -21%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 30% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 1%, food 60%, ores and metals 6% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other categories accounting for 1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 16%, food 11%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 8% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 39 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 69 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded an average annual decrease of 2.6% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Ukraine, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Ukraine's fiscal deficit averaged 5.8% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 8.8% in the decade to 2021. For more information on Ukraine's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 14.6% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Ukraine inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Ukraine's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 13.50%, down from 14.00% a decade earlier. See our Ukraine monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the hryvnia weakened by 62.5% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the hryvnia, click here.
Economic situation in Ukraine
Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth to have risen from Q3’s level in Q4. That said, available data points to downside risks to this projection. Household spending was likely subdued as inflation accelerated and consumer sentiment deteriorated. Business sentiment also weakened in December, owing to labor shortages, faltering investment demand and intensifying attacks on the power grid. Additionally, goods exports collapsed in December, slowing Q4’s momentum from Q3. In Q1 2025, GDP growth is likely remaining stable, though higher inflation and December’s unexpected interest rate hike bode ill for domestic demand. In other news, Donald Trump paused U.S. aid to Ukraine in January, leaving dozens of humanitarian and development projects cash-strapped. That said, in later weeks, Ukraine secured USD 1.2 billion in aid from Sweden and USD 69 million from the UK.Ukraine Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.51 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 30 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Ukraine in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 51 economic indicators for Ukraine from a panel of 30 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Ukraine economy. To download a sample report on the Ukraine's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.