The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine GDP

Ukraine GDP

Economic Growth in Ukraine

Ukraine's economy recorded an average growth rate of -3.4% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, Ukraine's real GDP growth was -29.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Ukraine GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2015 to 2014.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Ukraine GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.2 -3.8 3.5 -28.8
GDP (USD bn) 131 154 156 199 160
GDP (EUR bn) 111 137 137 168 153
GDP (UAH bn) 3,561 3,978 4,222 5,451 5,239
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 19.3 11.7 6.1 29.1 -3.9

War-torn economy expands at a slower pace in Q4

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP grew 4.7% year on year in Q4 2023, down from Q3’s 9.6% rise. This brought full-year growth to 5.3% in 2023 as a whole, recovering from 2022’s 28.8% decline.

Looking at available data, Q4’s moderation was broad-based. Private spending growth eased to 10.0% in Q4 (Q3: +12.3%), and public spending expanded by 4.0% (Q3: +17.0%). In addition, fixed investment rose by 19.5% in the quarter, cooling from Q3’s whopping 58.9% expansion. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted by 6.0% in Q4 (Q3: -9.6%), as the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July continued to weigh on trade. Meanwhile, imports swung into contraction, falling 6.2% (Q3: +3.6%), in line with moderating domestic demand.

Economic growth is seen dipping below 2023’s rate in 2024 as domestic demand decelerates. A rebound in exports should support momentum, however. The outlook for Ukraine’s economy continues to hinge on the course of the war, the counteroffensive in the east and inflows of international aid.

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “In the first half of the forecast period, growth will be driven primarily by government consumption, as was the case in 2023. Towards the second half, private consumption will be supported by the normalisation of labour conditions in the vast majority of the country. Overall, steady external financial flows and fiscal expenditure will underpin investment. Deepening ties with the EU as part of Ukraine's accession process will also have a positive effect on the country's ability to realise its export potential and as a recipient of investment.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ukrainian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Ukrainian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ukrainian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Ukrainian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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