Singapore skyline

Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

Following Q2’s acceleration, annual GDP growth is likely speeding up further in Q3. In July, inflation fell to a one-and-a-half-year low, boding well for private spending. Moreover, tourist arrivals grew nearly 90% year on year in July–August, likely boosting the services sector. Additionally, manufacturing output shrank less than in Q2. Less positively, year-on-year non-oil exports fell at the sharpest pace since January in July–August. The housing market showed further signs of cooling midway through Q3, with August home sales swinging into a year on year contraction. In politics, former Minister of Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnum won the 1 September presidential elections by a landslide. Analysts see Tharman’s victory as supportive of Singapore’s financial reserves and of a shift to a redistributive state, which should especially benefit lower-income groups.

Singapore Inflation

Inflation eased to 4.1% in July (June: 4.5%) on lower price growth for food, transport, and housing and utilities. The headline rate should average lower in 2023 than last year on softer domestic demand, lower commodity prices year on year and the effects of monetary tightening. That said, wage pressures, vehicle quotas and high taxes will keep inflation elevated.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Singapore from 2013 to 2022.

Singapore Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.6
GDP (USD bn) 376 377 348 423 467
GDP per capita (USD) 66,757 66,099 61,262 77,649 82,867
GDP (SGD bn) 508 514 481 569 644
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.2 1.1 -6.5 18.4 13.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.6 1.3 -3.9 8.9 3.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.0 -9.8 9.5 4.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.1 2.8 -13.1 6.6 9.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.2 13.0 3.7 -2.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -5.0 2.3 -14.8 18.0 1.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.8 0.2 0.4 11.7 -1.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.4 0.0 -1.1 12.0 -1.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.9 -1.6 7.5 13.5 2.8
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 7.0 -1.5 7.5 13.3 2.7
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -0.8 -2.8 -15.3 11.1 10.7
Wages (ann. var. %) 3.5 2.6 1.4 3.6 6.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.7 0.2 -10.7 0.2 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 108 125 147 137 168
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.9 5.0 13.2 2.4 1.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.5 0.8 0.0 4.0 6.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.3 6.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 0.6 -0.3 2.1 5.1
Inflation (DSPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.4 -3.3 -8.7 15.2 18.6
3-Month ABS SIBOR (%, eop) 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.44 4.25
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.04 1.74 0.84 1.67 3.09
Stock Market (ann. var. of FTSE STI %) -9.8 5.0 -11.8 9.8 4.1
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.35 1.34
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, aop) 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.34 1.38
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 59.2 60.9 57.3 76.4 90.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 15.7 16.1 16.5 18.0 19.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 104.4 97.8 106.5 125.7 136.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 461 442 420 514 579
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 356 344 314 389 443
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 10.4 -4.1 -4.9 22.5 12.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.7 -3.4 -8.8 23.9 14.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 73.6 97.5 72.9 131.2 141.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 291 275 347 419 282
International Reserves (months of imports) 9.8 9.6 13.3 12.9 7.6
External Debt (USD bn) 1,543 1,594 1,690 1,834 1,800
External Debt (% of GDP) 410 423 485 433 385

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