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Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

Revised data showed that GDP growth nearly halved to 2.1% year on year in Q4. The manufacturing sector shrank on weaker overseas demand, while the expansion in services slowed. In contrast, the construction sector saw double-digit growth thanks to stronger public and private construction output. Turning to Q1, non-oil domestic exports, the manufacturing PMI and the electronics PMI ticked up in January from December. In the remainder of the quarter, both services and goods exports should benefit from China’s economic reopening. In February, the government announced that the 2023 budget would see the fiscal deficit narrow from an expected 0.3% of GDP in FY 2022 to 0.1% in FY 2023. The budget is fiscally progressive, with extra handouts for lower and middle-income households counterbalanced by higher taxes on property and luxury cars.

Singapore Inflation

Consumer price inflation came in at 6.5% in December, down from November’s 6.7% and marking the lowest rate since May. Inflation will decelerate this year on softer external price pressures but will remain elevated by historical standards amid an increase in the goods and services tax from January, strong wage growth, rising visitor numbers and buoyant housing demand.

Singapore Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 343 376 377 348 423
GDP per capita (USD) 61 66 66 61 77
GDP (SGD bn) 474 508 514 481 569
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 7.2 1.1 -6.5 18.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 3.6 1.3 -3.9 8.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.9 1.1 2.0 -9.8 9.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.1 4.1 2.8 -13.1 6.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.4 3.0 3.2 13.0 3.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.1 -5.0 2.3 -14.8 18.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.5 7.8 0.2 0.4 11.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.1 7.4 0.0 -1.1 12.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 10.5 6.9 -1.6 7.5 13.5
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 10.4 7.0 -1.5 7.5 13.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.8 -0.8 -2.8 -15.3 11.1
Wages (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.4 3.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 0.7 0.2 -10.7 0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 105.9 107.5 124.7 146.6 136.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 3.2 3.9 5.0 13.2 2.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.0 4.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.3
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 1.3 1.9 0.6 -0.3 2.1
Inflation (DSPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.0 6.4 -3.3 -8.7 15.2
3-Month ABS SIBOR (%, eop) 1.50 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.44
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.00 2.04 1.74 0.84 1.67
Stock Market (ann. var. of FTSE STI %) 18.1 -9.8 5.0 -11.8 9.8
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, aop) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 62 59 61 57 76
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 18.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 18.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 101 104 98 106 126
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 417 461 442 420 514
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 316 356 344 314 389
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 11.8 10.4 -4.1 -4.9 22.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 11.6 12.7 -3.4 -8.8 23.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 82 74 106 75 99
International Reserves (USD bn) 280 288 279 362 418
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.6 9.7 9.7 13.9 12.9
External Debt (USD bn) 1 1 1 1 1
External Debt (% of GDP) 438.2 407.7 428.6 492.4 418.8

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