Lake Bled in Slovenia

Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

After losing speed in Q3 last year, activity almost flatlined in Q4, which brought the growth rate for 2022 to 5.4%. Turning to Q1 this year, early signs are upbeat and our panelists expect a small acceleration in activity amid decelerating inflation, record-high government spending budgeted for 2023, energy price caps and minimum wage increases. In January, the annual growth of exports and retail sales picked up versus the Q4 average. Furthermore, in the current quarter thus far, business and consumer confidence have averaged slightly higher than in Q4. That said, a series of large company closures in March and associated job losses will be weighing on output. More positively, a EUR 650 million compensation scheme for energy-intensive companies introduced in late February will increase firms’ competitiveness, boosting exports and stemming job losses ahead.

Slovenia Inflation

Harmonized inflation declined to 9.4% in February from 9.9% in January. Lower price pressures for food and housing more than offset higher price pressures for transport. Inflation will cool gradually this year as energy price caps, VAT cuts, lower demand and a stronger base effect will keep a lid on prices.

Slovenia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
GDP (USD bn) 48 54 54 54 62
GDP per capita (USD) 23 26 26 25 29
GDP (EUR bn) 43 46 49 47 52
GDP per capita (EUR) 20 22 23 22 24
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 6.7 5.8 -3.1 11.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.8 4.5 3.5 -4.3 8.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.9 5.0 3.5 -4.7 9.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 3.5 5.3 -7.0 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.4 2.9 1.8 4.1 5.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 10.2 10.2 5.1 -7.9 13.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.1 6.2 4.5 -8.6 14.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.7 7.1 4.7 -9.6 17.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 7.7 5.1 3.1 -5.2 10.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 7.4 4.6 3.4 -8.9 18.9
Wages (ann. var. %) 2.7 3.4 4.3 6.0 6.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.7 4.4 4.0 5.4 4.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 5.1 4.4 5.0 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 0.7 0.6 -7.7 -4.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 74.2 70.3 65.4 79.6 74.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.6 7.4 7.9 12.1 8.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.7 1.4 1.8 -1.1 4.9
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 1.4 2.0 -1.2 5.1
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 1.9 1.7 -0.3 2.0
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.7 6.1
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.33 -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.69 0.96 0.02 -0.23 0.17
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 3 3 3 4 2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.6 3.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 2 1 1 2 1
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 28 31 32 30 35
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 27 30 31 27 34
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.0 8.6 3.9 -7.4 19.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.5 10.4 3.9 -11.1 26.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 1 1 1 0 1
External Debt (EUR bn) 43 42 44 48 51
External Debt (% of GDP) 100.5 91.9 91.6 102.1 97.3

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