Slovenia Economic Outlook
A small but prosperous economy:
Slovenia, with a GDP of around $70 billion, is one of the most developed economies in Central and Eastern Europe. The country has a well-diversified industrial base, strong export performance, and a high standard of living. Growth has been solid in recent years, but Slovenia faced economic headwinds in 2023 due to rising inflation, weakening external demand, and tighter monetary policy. Despite these challenges, Slovenia remains one of the EU’s most stable economies.
Industrial strength and exports:Slovenia’s economy is heavily export-oriented, with major industries including pharmaceuticals, automotive manufacturing, and machinery. The country is home to Krka and Lek, two major pharmaceutical companies, and has a strong presence in high-value manufacturing. Trade is highly integrated with the EU, with Germany, Italy, and Austria as key partners. Slovenia also benefits from a well-developed tourism sector, particularly in Ljubljana and the Alpine region.
Challenges:Despite its strong fundamentals, Slovenia faces challenges such as an aging population, labor shortages, and high public debt. Inflation exceeded 10% in 2022 but has since moderated, though high interest rates have dampened investment. The country also has a relatively high tax burden, which could impact competitiveness. Additionally, Slovenia’s small domestic market limits growth potential, making export diversification crucial.
Slovenia’s economic outlook:Slovenia’s economic expansion will be above the EU average going forward, supported by EU funding, strong exports, and ongoing digital transformation. The government is focusing on green energy and innovation to enhance long-term competitiveness. However, demographic pressures and external risks could weigh on future growth. Continued investment in infrastructure, education, and business-friendly policies will be key to sustaining Slovenia’s economic success.
Slovenia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 72.4 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 34,188 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2021, services accounted for 68% of overall GDP, manufacturing 21%, other industrial activity 9%, and agriculture 2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 52% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 20%, fixed investment 22%, and net exports 6%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 85% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 4%, food 5%, ores and metals 4% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other categories accounting for 0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 78% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 7%, food 7%, ores and metals 6% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 45 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 47 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.9% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Slovenia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Slovenia's fiscal deficit averaged 3.3% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 5.8% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Slovenia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 2.3% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Slovenia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Euro Area monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 3.15%, up from 0.05% a decade earlier. See our Slovenia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the euro weakened by 20% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the euro, click here.
Economic situation in Slovenia
After doubling in Q3, annual GDP growth is expected to have steadied in Q4. The data at hand bears out this projection. On the one hand, industrial output growth remained stable at Q3’s rate in October–November, and tourist arrivals growth more than doubled from Q3 in Q4, boding well for the services sector. On the other hand, retail sales contracted more quickly in October–November than in Q3, hinting at weaker private consumption. Turning to Q1, our panelists expect GDP growth to pick up from Q4 as past rate cuts and EU fund inflows aid domestic demand. In other news, in January, the European Commission threatened to take legal action against the government for its attempt to remove the board of the energy regulator, which recently hiked prices for those with the highest electricity consumption. This comes after the government recently extended an energy price cap until February.Slovenia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.51 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 23 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Slovenia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 51 economic indicators for Slovenia from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Slovenia economy. To download a sample report on the Slovenia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.