Lake Bled in Slovenia

Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

After accelerating in Q1, annual growth sped up again in Q2. An improvement in net trade—imports fell more sharply than exports—and a rebound in public spending drove the reading, more than offsetting a contraction in private consumption and a slowdown in fixed investment. A marked decrease in imports from Russia was a key driver of the net trade reading, while still-high inflation and higher interest rates were a drag on output. Turning to Q3, our panel expects another acceleration. Q2’s real wage growth and slightly lower unemployment rate should support private consumption into Q3. Moreover, in July, inflation decelerated compared to the Q2 average, further reducing pressure on real incomes. Government support and EU solidarity funds will provide additional support. That said, floods in early August—the worst in the country’s history—will take their toll on activity in the short term.

Slovenia Inflation

Harmonized inflation fell to a 19-month low of 5.7% in July (June: 6.6%) due to lower price pressures for housing and food, as well as a sharper decline in transport prices. Average inflation will slow this year from 2022 due to a pullback in demand and lower energy prices. That said, price pressures are set to stay above the ECB’s 2.0% forecast during our forecast horizon.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Slovenia from 2013 to 2022.

Slovenia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
GDP (USD bn) 54.1 54.3 53.6 61.7 62.0
GDP per capita (USD) 26,187 26,105 25,574 29,263 29,427
GDP (EUR bn) 45.9 48.5 47.0 52.2 59.0
GDP per capita (EUR) 22,195 23,322 22,434 24,755 27,996
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.7 5.8 -3.1 11.0 13.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 3.5 -4.3 8.2 5.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.5 -4.7 9.9 8.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 5.3 -7.0 9.4 9.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 1.8 4.1 5.8 1.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 10.2 5.1 -7.9 13.7 7.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.2 4.5 -8.6 14.5 6.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.1 4.7 -9.6 17.6 9.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.1 3.1 -5.2 10.2 1.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.6 3.4 -8.9 18.9 19.9
Wages (ann. var. %) 3.4 4.3 6.0 6.0 2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.4 4.0 5.4 4.5 3.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.1 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.7 0.7 -7.7 -4.6 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 70.3 65.4 79.6 74.5 69.9
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.4 7.9 12.1 8.8 8.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.4 1.8 -1.1 4.9 10.3
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.4 2.0 -1.2 5.1 10.8
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 1.7 -0.3 2.0 9.3
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 1.9 0.7 6.1 22.8
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50
ECB Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) -0.40 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57 2.13
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.96 0.02 -0.23 0.17 3.52
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.05
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.7 2.8 3.4 1.7 -0.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.9 5.9 7.2 3.3 -1.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 1.3 1.3 2.3 0.9 -2.2
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 30.8 32.0 29.6 35.3 42.6
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 29.5 30.7 27.3 34.4 44.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.6 3.9 -7.4 19.0 20.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.4 3.9 -11.1 26.0 30.3
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 1.2 1.3 0.2 1.6 1.5

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