Lake Bled in Slovenia

Slovenia GDP

Slovenia GDP

Economic Growth in Slovenia

Slovenia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.6% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Slovenia GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Slovenia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Statistical Office of Slovenia.

Slovenia GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 3.5 -4.2 8.2 2.5
GDP (USD bn) 54.1 54.4 53.6 61.8 60.0
GDP (EUR bn) 45.9 48.6 47.0 52.3 57.0
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.7 5.9 -3.2 11.1 9.1

Economic growth softens in Q3 amid historic floods

GDP growth waned to 1.1% year on year in the third quarter, from 1.6% in the second quarter. The reading partly reflected August’s floods, which disrupted activity, particularly in the export-oriented automotive industry. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined 0.2% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.0% growth. Q3's reading marked the sharpest drop since Q4 2020.

The downturn was broad-based, with private spending, exports and growth in public consumption and fixed investment all weakening. Household spending contracted 0.8% in Q3 (Q2: +0.3% yoy), marking the worst result in a year. Government consumption growth moderated to 2.8% in Q3 (Q2: +3.4% yoy). In addition, fixed investment growth slowed to 8.3% in Q3 from 11.2% in the previous quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 9.2% in Q3 (Q2: -1.3% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q2 2020. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services dropped at a quicker rate of 12.1% in Q3 (Q2: -6.2% yoy), also marking the worst reading since Q2 2020.

Looking ahead, GDP growth should accelerate from current levels in the coming quarters. Inflows of EU relief funds and the gradual recovery of business activity will support growth, with factory output expected to return to pre-flood levels in Q1 2024. In addition, lower inflation and interest rates next year should stimulate both domestic and external demand, supporting faster growth in private spending and exports compared to current rates.

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “The large automotive and tourism sectors were among the hardest hit by the August floods, and localised disruption will persist in 2024. We estimate that the aggregate macroeconomic impact will be limited, with a stimulative effect on construction and investment activity largely offsetting negative effects on trade, industry and consumers. […] Modest support to real GDP in 2024–2025 will come from a recovering tourism sector, resilient pharmaceutical demand and expanding digital services and logistics industries.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Slovenian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Slovenian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Slovenian GDP projections.

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