Hungarian Parliament building

Hungary Economic Forecast

Hungary Economic Outlook

The pace of year-on-year GDP contraction sharpened in Q2 amid elevated inflation and interest rates, downbeat consumer sentiment and a weak global economic environment. The rate of economic decline should have moderated in the third quarter, although momentum remained subdued. Industrial production dropped at a softer annual rate in July, as did retail sales. That said, consumer and business confidence remained deeply entrenched in pessimistic terrain in the quarter, while inflation fell but proved sticky in July-August, likely weighing on household spending. As a further testament to persistent economic weakness, money supply dropped at a faster year-on-year pace in July than in the second quarter. Completing the bleak picture, on the external front, merchandise exports shrank at a faster pace than in Q2 in July.

Hungary Inflation

Inflation eased to 16.4% in August from July’s 17.6%, marking the lowest rate since August 2022 and moving closer to the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range. Inflation should continue its downtrend until year-end. However, it will remain significantly above the Central Bank’s target, fueled by robust wage growth and protracted pass-through effects.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Hungary from 2013 to 2022.

Hungary Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7
GDP (USD bn) 161 164 157 182 179
GDP per capita (USD) 16,417 16,779 16,096 18,723 18,374
GDP (EUR bn) 136 147 138 154 170
GDP per capita (EUR) 13,913 14,992 14,119 15,834 17,474
GDP (HUF bn) 43,387 47,674 48,425 55,255 66,616
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 10.5 9.9 1.6 14.1 20.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.4 4.9 -4.5 7.2 4.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.1 7.2 -2.6 6.3 3.9
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.2 5.2 -1.0 3.7 4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 5.1 -1.3 4.8 6.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 9.5 3.9 2.5 -1.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 16.3 12.8 -7.1 6.5 1.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.0 5.4 -6.1 8.8 11.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.0 8.2 -3.9 7.7 11.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.8 5.3 -6.6 9.6 5.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 6.8 6.3 0.2 3.6 5.5
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 8.4 4.8 -0.4 7.8 1.4
Wages (ann. var. %) 11.1 11.5 9.8 8.8 17.4
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.5 3.2 4.1 3.7 3.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -2.0 -7.5 -7.1 -6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 69.1 65.3 79.3 76.6 73.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.5 9.5 21.3 16.0 5.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.7 4.0 2.7 7.4 24.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.8 3.3 3.3 5.1 14.6
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 2.9 3.4 3.4 5.2 15.3
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 3.1 3.7 3.9 15.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.5 2.1 4.2 13.6 33.7
Central Bank Base Rate (%, eop) 0.90 0.90 0.60 2.40 13.00
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 0.13 0.16 0.75 4.21 16.18
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.01 2.01 2.08 4.51 8.98
Stock Market (ann. var. of BUX Index %) -0.6 17.7 -8.6 20.5 -13.7
Exchange Rate (HUF per USD, eop) 281 295 296 324 375
Exchange Rate (HUF per USD, aop) 270 291 308 303 373
Exchange Rate (HUF per EUR, eop) 321 331 363 369 400
Exchange Rate (HUF per EUR, aop) 319 325 351 359 392
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.2 -1.2 -1.5 -6.5 -13.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -4.2 -8.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -2.3 -3.7 -1.3 -4.4 -15.2
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 88.5 92.5 88.7 100.3 124.5
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 90.8 96.2 90.0 104.7 139.7
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 3.8 4.5 -4.2 13.1 24.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.7 5.9 -6.5 16.4 33.4
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 11.3 11.6 11.0 12.0 13.0
International Reserves (EUR bn) 27.4 28.4 33.8 38.4 38.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 3.6 3.5 4.5 4.4 3.3
External Debt (EUR bn) 108 107 112 131 150
External Debt (% of GDP) 79.2 73.2 81.0 84.8 88.4

Free Sample Report

Interested in Hungary economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest