Small beach town in Belize

Belize Economic Forecast

Belize Economic Outlook

GDP growth clocked in at 11.5% year on year in Q1 2023, below Q4 2022’s 12.4%. The retail and manufacturing sectors slowed, and the agricultural sector contracted further. However, the hospitality and financial services sectors grew at a faster rate. In Q2, growth likely continued to slow, partly due to a challenging base of comparison after a strong post-pandemic rise in GDP in Q2 last year. Compared with the previous quarter, merchandise exports declined more sharply year on year in the second quarter, while average annual private sector loan growth slowed. Additionally, tourism sector arrivals grew 8% year on year in the second quarter, down from 47% in Q1. More positively, lower average inflation in Q2 likely contributed to increased household spending.

Belize Inflation

Inflation slowed to 2.8% in July, down from 3.3% in June, the lowest reading since May 2021. Average inflation is set to moderate this year compared to 2022, mainly due to lower external price pressures and a tougher base effect. The El Niño weather pattern poses an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Belize from 2013 to 2022.

Belize Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
GDP (USD bn) 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 -
GDP per capita (USD) 5,802 5,878 4,904 5,751 -
GDP (BZD bn) 4.6 4.8 4.2 5.0 -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 4.4 -13.9 19.8 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.1 4.5 -13.4 15.2 12.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.5 4.5 -11.7 12.5 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.6 0.5 -24.1 15.4 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.0 6.3 -9.2 22.7 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.9 5.4 -29.8 35.1 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.1 5.3 -22.9 31.8 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 9.4 10.4 13.7 9.2 5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -2.9 -8.4 -3.2 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 78.1 77.5 101.4 80.1 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.2 6.3
Weighted Average Lending Rate (%, eop) 8.98 8.76 8.53 8.43 8.44
Exchange Rate (BZD per USD, eop) 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -7.6 -6.1 -6.3 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -8.3 1.4 -32.1 46.2 22.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.1 5.6 -24.5 30.7 28.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 3.9 3.5 5.8 5.3 4.8
External Debt (USD bn) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 58.7 57.4 73.9 58.6 -

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