Norway skyline at night

Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

The economy should have posted a modest quarter-on-quarter expansion in the third quarter, improving from the second quarter’s flat result. July’s total GDP growth of 0.3% month on month outweighed August’s 0.2% monthly fall. August’s result was dragged down by an unfavorable base effect in private spending. Less positively, the external sector’s performance likely weakened as the downturn in goods and services exports deepened in July–August from Q2. In Q4, sequential growth should be waning. Both headline and core inflation accelerated in October, likely weighing on private spending. Meanwhile, home prices rose month on month in October, contrasting Norges Bank’s projections of another decline, suggesting another rate hike in the horizon; this would further contribute to a domestic demand slowdown.

Norway Inflation

In October, headline and core inflation rose, the former to 4.0% (September: 3.3%)—undershooting Norges Bank’s expectations—and the latter to 6.0% (September: 5.7%)—in line with the Bank’s projection. In 2024, inflation will average below 2023’s level on the delayed effects of interest rate hikes this year and a high base effect but remain above Norges Bank’s 2.0% target.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Norway from 2013 to 2022.

Norway Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 439 409 368 503 593
GDP per capita (USD) 82,522 76,291 68,304 92,870 108,325
GDP (EUR bn) 372 365 323 425 564
GDP per capita (EUR) 69,942 68,159 59,916 78,563 103,057
GDP (NOK bn) 3,577 3,597 3,462 4,324 5,705
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 0.6 -3.8 24.9 31.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.8 1.1 -1.3 3.9 3.0
Economic Growth (Mainland GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 2.3 -2.8 4.5 3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.2 -3.9 2.7 5.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.4 1.0 -6.2 5.1 6.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.6 1.1 -0.5 3.6 1.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.2 9.5 -4.1 0.7 5.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.5 2.1 -2.3 6.1 4.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.4 5.3 -9.9 1.8 12.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 -5.0 4.1 3.3 2.6
Wages (ann. var. %) 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.9 3.7 4.6 4.4 3.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 7.8 6.5 -2.6 10.3 25.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 38.9 39.9 45.2 42.5 37.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.3 4.2 12.1 10.4 5.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.5 1.4 1.4 5.3 5.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.8 2.2 1.3 3.5 5.8
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 3.0 2.3 1.2 3.9 6.2
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.5 2.2 3.0 1.7 3.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 14.8 -3.6 -10.2 37.8 51.9
Sight Deposit Rate (%, eop) 0.75 1.50 0.00 0.50 2.75
3-Month NIBOR (%, eop) 1.27 1.84 0.49 0.95 3.26
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.79 1.55 0.96 1.71 3.20
Stock Market (ann. var. of OSEBX %) -2.0 16.4 4.2 23.3 -0.4
Exchange Rate (NOK per USD, eop) 8.66 8.79 8.56 8.82 9.85
Exchange Rate (NOK per USD, aop) 8.14 8.80 9.41 8.60 9.62
Exchange Rate (NOK per EUR, eop) 9.90 9.86 10.48 10.03 10.51
Exchange Rate (NOK per EUR, aop) 9.60 9.85 10.73 10.16 10.11
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 33.3 13.8 3.6 56.5 166.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 9.0 3.8 1.1 13.3 29.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 29.7 14.6 -0.8 51.1 155.1
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 0.2 14.9 -7.2 1.5 -3.3

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