Economic Growth in Norway
The economy of Norway recorded an average growth rate of 1.6% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Norway GDP Chart
Norway GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.1 | -1.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
GDP (USD bn) | 409 | 368 | 503 | 593 | 485 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 365 | 323 | 425 | 565 | 449 |
GDP (NOK bn) | 3,597 | 3,462 | 4,324 | 5,708 | 5,127 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.6 | -3.8 | 24.9 | 32.0 | -10.2 |
Economic Growth (Mainland GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.4 | -3.4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
Economy accelerates in Q2
GDP reading: The Norwegian economy gained notable steam in the second quarter, when nationwide GDP growth improved to 1.4% from 0.3% in Q1 on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis. Meanwhile, the mainland economy—which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport—grew 0.1% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q2, matching Q1’s increase; this result undershot both market and Norges Bank expectations.
Drivers: The nationwide quarterly upturn reflected broad-based improvements. Domestically, household spending bounced back, growing 1.5% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in Q2, which marked the best reading since Q4 2022 (Q1: -0.7% s.a. qoq). A continued recovery in purchasing power—with year-on-year wage growth outpacing inflation for a fourth consecutive quarter—likely supported household spending and particularly car purchases. Similarly, fixed investment growth hit an over two-year high of 5.1% in the second quarter, rebounding from the first quarter's 7.6% contraction. Moreover, public consumption picked up to a 0.7% increase in Q2 (Q1: +0.3% s.a. qoq). Turning to the external front, exports of goods and services rebounded, growing 5.6% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in Q2, which marked the best reading since Q3 2022 (Q1: -1.4% s.a. qoq), partly due to a weaker krone. In addition, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 3.1% in Q2 (Q1: -0.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, nationwide economic growth improved to 2.6% in Q2, following the previous quarter's 1.0% expansion and marking the strongest increase in two years. Finally, mainland GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.5% year on year in Q2, matching Q1’s rise.
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect nationwide GDP growth to decelerate to a near halt in sequential terms from Q2 in Q3 and then inch up in Q4. That said, there are upside risks to that projection from stronger-than-expected private spending; consumer sentiment and purchasing power should be boosted by lower inflation and unemployment rates plus expectations of interest rate cuts.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Norwegian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Norwegian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Norwegian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Norwegian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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