Big building in Pakistan

Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

After nearly grinding to a halt in the last fiscal year, which ended in June, the economy appears to be recovering in the present fiscal year. That said, the recovery appears to have had a slow start. The government agreed to a USD 3 billion bailout with the IMF in July, thus avoiding a balance of payments crisis. But to get the funds, it has had cut electricity and fuel subsidies, stoking inflation and therefore stymieing private spending; in July–October, monthly business activity worsened, and business and consumer sentiment were pessimistic. In addition, expensive energy and a dollar shortage caused industrial production to stagnate year on year in July–September. That said, inflation eased substantially in October, suggesting private spending will be slowly recovering. Consumer and business sentiment surged in October, and the stock exchange hit a record high in early November.

Pakistan Inflation

Inflation fell to 26.9% in October from 31.4% in September after the government cut gasoline prices by roughly 10%. Our panelists see inflation decelerating in CY 2024 from CY 2023 thanks to recent belt-tightening by the Central Bank and government. However, a recent sharp hike in gas prices, which are set by the government, will help keep inflation high.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Pakistan from 2014 to 2023.

Pakistan Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 210 214 218 223 227
GDP (USD bn) 357 322 301 349 375
GDP per capita (USD) 1,700 1,506 1,377 1,567 1,653
GDP (PKR bn) 39,190 43,798 47,540 55,836 66,624
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 10.2 11.8 8.5 17.5 19.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.2 2.5 -1.3 6.5 6.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.4 2.5 -2.3 8.0 5.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.2 5.6 -2.9 9.5 6.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.5 -1.6 8.5 1.8 -1.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 10.3 -11.1 -6.7 3.7 5.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.0 13.2 1.5 6.5 5.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 15.7 7.6 -5.1 14.5 11.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 9.2 0.2 -5.7 7.8 7.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.8 6.9 6.6 6.3 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.8 -7.9 -7.1 -6.1 -7.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 64.8 77.5 79.6 73.5 76.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.4 12.6 8.0 12.3 24.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.8 9.4 9.5 9.5 19.9
Policy Rate (%, eop) 10.00 13.25 7.00 9.75 16.00
Exchange Rate (PKR per USD, eop) 139 155 160 177 226
Exchange Rate (PKR per USD, aop) 122 150 162 163 205
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -19.2 -13.4 -4.4 -2.8 -17.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -4.2 -1.5 -0.8 -4.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -30.9 -27.6 -21.1 -28.6 -39.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 24.8 24.3 22.5 25.6 32.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 55.7 51.9 43.6 54.3 71.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.6 -2.1 -7.1 13.8 26.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.0 -6.8 -15.9 24.4 31.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.3
International Reserves (USD bn) 11.3 16.0 18.6 22.7 9.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 2.4 3.7 5.1 5.0 1.6
External Debt (USD bn) 95.2 106.3 113.0 122.3 130.3
External Debt (% of GDP) 26.7 33.0 37.6 35.1 34.7

Free Sample Report

Interested in Pakistan economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest