Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Nordics aggregate 2027 GDP growth will slow from 2026 as exports decelerate sharply. Still, momentum will broadly track the prior decade, buoyed by private spending and fixed investment growth clocking multi-year highs—the former amid a tighter labor market and the latter bolstered by stronger defense outlays. A prolonged Iran war is a downside risk.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In September, aggregate inflation hit an over two-year high, rising across all five Nordic countries. Since the Iran war began, our panelists have raised their 2026–2027 inflation forecasts to reflect higher energy prices. Aggregate inflation is set to average a five-year high in 2027 amid stronger private spending growth. Energy prices are key to monitor.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,406 | 64,781 | 66,660 | 71,979 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 40.7 | 43.2 | 46.4 | 47.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.07 | 2.35 | 4.05 | 3.23 | 2.35 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 401 | 440 | 411 | 405 | 436 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 474 | 483 | 528 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |