Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists have downgraded their 2026 GDP growth forecasts as the Middle East conflict rages on. Still, regional growth is seen clocking a four-year high supported by solid domestic demand, relatively low interest rates and higher defense spending. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher U.S. tariffs remain downside risks.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In April, inflation edged down in Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, but rose in Denmark. Our panelists have continued to revise upward their 2026 inflation forecasts to account for the ongoing Iran-U.S. war and its effect on shipping plus energy costs. Still, consumer prices are seen averaging at one of their lowest levels in the post-pandemic era this year.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,424 | 64,827 | 66,352 | 71,659 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -2.3 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.04 | 2.40 | 4.14 | 3.33 | 2.45 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 46.6 | 47.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 475 | 480 | 525 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 401 | 440 | 410 | 405 | 437 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |