Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Economies in the Nordic region will have divergent performances this year: Iceland and Norway will expand healthily. Conversely, Finland and Sweden will contract, while Denmark will record minimal growth. Factors to monitor this year include geopolitical developments, housing markets, household debt levels, interest rates and inflation rates.
Nordic Economies Inflation
Regional inflation ticked down to a six-month low of 8.7% in February (January: 8.8%) as softer price pressures in Denmark and Norway more than offset stronger inflation in Finland, Iceland and Sweden. This year, inflation across the region will gradually cool but still remain above central banks’ targets. Currency volatility and energy prices are factors to watch.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 57 | 60 | 57 | 56 | 66 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -2.1 | 4.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | -3.6 | 4.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 337 | 378 | 356 | 320 | 453 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 302 | 331 | 315 | 295 | 363 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -2.6 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 2.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.6 | 42.7 | 41.6 | 48.1 | 44.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | -0.22 | -0.13 | 0.27 | -0.17 | 0.00 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 9.5 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 |