Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
This year, aggregate GDP growth in the Nordics is seen stabilizing, tracking close to the prior 10-year average. Fixed investment growth is seen reaching its highest level in five years amid strong defense outlays, while subdued inflation should boost private consumption. Geopolitical tensions remain key to monitor; potential U.S. tariffs pose downside risks.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In June, inflation fell in Finland, Norway and Sweden, edged up in Iceland and was unchanged in Denmark. The Middle East conflict pushed our panelists to raise their 2026 forecasts in recent months, yet inflation is still set to average one of its lowest rates of the post-pandemic era this year. U.S.-Iran tensions and monetary policy decisions are key to track.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 46.4 | 47.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,424 | 64,793 | 66,661 | 72,001 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.04 | 2.40 | 4.14 | 3.32 | 2.44 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 401 | 440 | 410 | 405 | 435 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 474 | 483 | 529 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |