Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Aggregate GDP growth in the Nordics is set to exceed 2025’s pace and the prior decade trend both this year and next. Growth in private spending and fixed investment should reach multi-year highs in 2026 and 2027 thanks to contained inflation—by global standards—and stronger defense outlays. A prolonged Iran war is a downside risk.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In August, inflation edged up in Norway, Denmark and Iceland and held steady in Finland and Sweden. Since the Iran war’s outbreak, our panel has hiked its forecasts to reflect higher energy costs, though inflation is still set to remain comfortably below the prior-decade average in 2026 and 2027. U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic monetary policy are key to track.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.07 | 2.35 | 4.05 | 3.23 | 2.35 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,406 | 64,781 | 66,660 | 71,968 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 401 | 440 | 411 | 405 | 436 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 474 | 483 | 528 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 46.4 | 47.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |