Uzbekistan Economic Outlook
GDP growth accelerated in Q2. Activity rose 5.6% year on year in January–June, up from 5.4% in January–March, thanks to a strong expansion in real incomes, which should have supported private spending. Moreover, both the construction and industrial sectors posted healthy increases in output in H1, pointing to sturdy investment activity. In Q3, momentum largely appears to have remained robust. Growth in both the industrial and retail sectors accelerated in January–July, while construction activity remained healthy. On top of that, goods exports soared in July, far outpacing imports, which should have boosted the external sector. Meanwhile, on 25 August, Fitch Ratings affirmed Uzbekistan’s ‘BB-‘ credit rating with a stable outlook, citing robust external and fiscal buffers, low government debt and a high GDP growth rate, notwithstanding protracted structural weaknesses.
Uzbekistan Inflation
Inflation moderated to 8.9% in July (June: 9.0%). This was due to cooling price growth for non-food goods, which more than offset accelerating food and services inflation. That said, it remained firmly above the Central Bank’s 5.0% target, which will likely prompt the Bank to stand pat at its next meeting on 14 September. Inflation should ease further in H2.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Uzbekistan from 2013 to 2022.
Uzbekistan Economic Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 32.7 | 33.3 | 33.9 | 34.6 | 35.3 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 52.7 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 69.6 | 80.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,614 | 1,815 | 1,774 | 2,013 | 2,279 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 44.5 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 58.9 | 76.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 1,364 | 1,621 | 1,550 | 1,703 | 2,163 |
| GDP (UZS tn) | 427 | 533 | 606 | 738 | 888 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 34.4 | 24.9 | 13.7 | 21.9 | 20.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 7.4 | 5.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | -0.3 | -3.3 | -4.6 | -3.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 19.6 | 28.5 | 37.1 | 35.4 | 34.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 17.5 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| Refinancing Rate (%, eop) | 16.00 | 16.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, eop) | 8,328 | 9,429 | 10,478 | 10,786 | 11,252 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, aop) | 8,094 | 8,827 | 10,067 | 10,616 | 11,053 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, eop) | 9,523 | 10,582 | 12,823 | 12,266 | 12,006 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, aop) | 9,549 | 9,881 | 11,476 | 12,549 | 11,618 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.6 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -4.9 | -0.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -5.6 | -5.0 | -7.0 | -0.8 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -6.9 | -7.3 | -6.2 | -8.8 | -11.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 11.4 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 17.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 18.3 | 21.2 | 19.0 | 22.9 | 28.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) | 12.0 | 22.1 | -7.7 | 10.2 | 21.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) | 47.5 | 16.1 | -10.1 | 20.3 | 23.6 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| External Debt (USD bn) | 17.6 | 22.4 | 32.3 | 39.0 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 33.4 | 37.1 | 53.8 | 56.1 | - |