Buildings in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

Annual GDP growth eased slightly in Q4 to 5.7% (Q3: +5.8%), driven by slower expansions in the manufacturing, electricity and gas supply, and hospitality sectors. That said, construction, mining and retail trade expanded at faster paces. Overall in 2022, Uzbekistan enjoyed higher inflows of capital and remittances from Russia amid a stronger ruble compared to the domestic currency. Turning to 2023, economic activity tumbled at the onset of Q1 due to a severe cold spell and gas shortages that caused nationwide power outages. Production in several sectors of the economy declined in January compared to last year’s average, including industrial output, retail sales, construction and services activity. On the external front, exports expanded at a slower rate. In politics, the government is planning a constitution overhaul to extend presidential terms, boding poorly for the modernization agenda.

Uzbekistan Inflation

Inflation was stable at 12.2% in February, remaining well above the Central Bank’s 5.0% target. As core inflation kept rising in January, the Bank left interest rates unchanged at 15.00% on 26 January. In 2023, inflation should ease on weaker external price pressures. Nevertheless, commodity price swings, currency volatility and bad weather denting harvests are risks.

Uzbekistan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.6
GDP (USD bn) 62 53 60 60 70
GDP per capita (USD) 1 1 1 1 2
GDP (EUR bn) 54 45 54 53 59
GDP per capita (EUR) 1 1 1 1 1
GDP (UZS tn) 317.5 426.6 532.7 605.5 738.4
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 24.3 34.4 24.9 13.7 21.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 5.4 5.7 1.9 7.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -4.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.3 19.7 28.4 37.6 35.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 13.9 17.5 14.5 12.9 10.8
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 14.00 16.00 16.00 14.00 14.00
Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, eop) 8.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 10.0
Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, aop) 5.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 10.0
Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, eop) 9.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 12.0
Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, aop) 5.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 12.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1 -4 -3 -3 -5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.4 -6.8 -5.6 -5.0 -6.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2 -7 -7 -6 -9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10 11 14 13 14
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12 18 21 19 23
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.5 12.0 22.1 -7.7 10.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.1 47.5 16.1 -10.1 21.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2 1 2 2 2
External Debt (USD bn) 16 18 22 32 39
External Debt (% of GDP) 26.4 33.3 37.2 53.7 56.0

Free Sample Report

Interested in Uzbekistan economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest