Buildings in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

Economic growth slowed in Q1, falling to 5.5% from 5.7% in Q4, due to slower expansions in agriculture and industrial output, as well as softer services growth. Turning to Q2, growth appears to be accelerating from Q1 levels. Domestically, construction activity, industrial production and services activity—particularly retail trade—rose at a quicker pace in April than in Q1. On the external front, exports improved and import growth decelerated. More structurally, the number of operating enterprises continued to grow in the month, hinting at an increasingly dynamic economic environment. Meanwhile, in politics, the country will hold a snap presidential election on 9 July following April’s approval via referendum of a package of constitutional reforms. The incumbent president is projected to win—further concentrating power—which would bode poorly for additional structural reforms.

Uzbekistan Inflation

Inflation eased to 11.0% in April (March: 11.7%), remaining above the Central Bank’s 5.0% target. The Bank lowered interest rates by 100 basis points to 14.00% on 16 March. Later this year, inflation should ease slightly from current levels but remain above the Bank’s target. Commodity price swings, currency volatility and a poor harvest are risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Uzbekistan from 2013 to 2022.

Uzbekistan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.6
GDP (USD bn) 62 53 60 60 70
GDP per capita (USD) 1,926 1,617 1,813 1,775 2,013
GDP (EUR bn) 54 45 54 53 59
GDP per capita (EUR) 1,682 1,364 1,621 1,550 1,703
GDP (UZS tn) 317.5 426.6 532.7 605.5 738.4
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 24.3 34.4 24.9 13.7 21.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 5.5 6.0 2.0 7.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.3 19.6 28.5 37.1 35.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 13.9 17.5 14.5 12.9 10.8
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 14.00 16.00 16.00 14.00 14.00
Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, eop) 8,092 8,328 9,429 10,478 10,786
Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, aop) 5,131.1 8,077.8 8,833.3 10,059.7 10,613.1
Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, eop) 9,718 9,523 10,582 12,823 12,266
Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, aop) 5,785.7 9,530.6 9,887.3 11,468.1 12,545.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1 -4 -3 -3 -5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.4 -6.8 -5.6 -5.0 -7.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.2 -6.9 -7.3 -6.2 -8.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10 11 14 13 14
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12 18 21 19 23
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.5 12.0 22.1 -7.7 10.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.1 47.5 16.1 -10.1 20.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2 1 2 2 2
External Debt (USD bn) 16 18 22 32 39
External Debt (% of GDP) 26.4 33.3 37.2 53.7 56.0

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