Uzbekistan Economic Data & Projections

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

Central Asia’s rising economy:

Uzbekistan, the most populous country in Central Asia, has been one of the region’s fastest-growing economies in recent years. Following the economic liberalization initiated by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2016, Uzbekistan has opened up to foreign investment, streamlined regulations, and pursued privatization of state-owned enterprises. GDP growth has remained strong, averaging around 5–6% annually, driven by manufacturing, agriculture, and services. The government aims to diversify the economy away from its traditional reliance on commodity exports, including gold, natural gas, and cotton.

Key industries and trade partnerships:

Uzbekistan is a major producer of gold, ranking among the world's top 10, and also possesses significant reserves of copper, uranium, and natural gas. The country has long been reliant on exports of natural resources, but recent government efforts have focused on expanding value-added industries such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automotive production. Trade relations have been strengthening, particularly with China, Russia, and Turkey, while Uzbekistan has sought greater integration with global markets, including the WTO accession process. The country has also increased connectivity through regional infrastructure projects, including participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Challenges:

Despite strong growth, Uzbekistan faces structural challenges, including a state-dominated banking sector, high youth unemployment, and a business environment that, while improving, still has bureaucratic hurdles. Inflation has been a persistent concern, hovering around 10% in recent years, partly due to subsidy cuts and currency liberalization. Additionally, while privatization efforts are underway, many key industries remain under state control, limiting competition and efficiency. The country also faces demographic pressures, with a rapidly growing population requiring more job creation to prevent social discontent.

Uzbekistan’s economic outlook:

Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing in Central Asia over the coming years, supported by economic reforms, infrastructure investments, and expanding trade ties. The government’s focus on privatization and attracting foreign investment will be crucial in sustaining growth and increasing economic diversification. However, risks remain, including external vulnerabilities from commodity price swings and geopolitical uncertainties in the region. If reform momentum continues and institutional capacity improves, Uzbekistan could position itself as a key economic hub in Central Asia, offering opportunities for investment and industrial development.

Uzbekistan's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 114.9 billion in 2024.

GDP per capita of USD 3,113 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 5.9% over the last decade.

Sector Analysis

In 2021, services accounted for 43% of overall GDP, manufacturing 20%, other industrial activity 12%, and agriculture 25%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 59% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 17%, fixed investment 41%, and net exports -17%.

International trade

In 2021, manufactured products made up 35% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 7%, food 9%, ores and metals 14% and agricultural raw materials 3%, with other categories accounting for 32% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 75% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 6%, food 13%, ores and metals 4% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 17 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 28 billion.