Germany Economic Forecast

A second release shows the economy contracted by more than expected in Q4. Private spending and exports fell, driving the decline. Heading into Q1, most of our panelists expect the economy to enter a technical recession. Private spending is expected to contract again and exports are expected to nearly flatline. Private spending continues to be dented by elevated inflation, while exports continued to be dented by a weakening global economy. The GDP contraction is projected to be slightly softer in Q1 than in Q4, with economic sentiment and PMI data pointing towards better-than-expected economic momentum in the quarter. As has been the case since the war in Ukraine began, energy supply remains a central determinant of economic activity. As a result, the recent decline in natural gas prices has likely supported the economy.

Harmonized inflation declined to 9.2% in January (December: 9.6%). Interpreting recent inflation figures has been made more difficult by government subsidies; in the latest release, the statistical office provided no details regarding how such subsidies had affected inflation. This year, inflation is expected to decelerate as both domestic demand and commodity prices decline.