Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany

Germany Inflation

Germany Inflation

Inflation in Germany

The euro weakened in the mid-2010s, influenced by the European sovereign debt crisis and monetary easing by the European Central Bank. However, it saw periods of strength, particularly as the US Federal Reserve pursued its own easing policies. In late 2022, the euro briefly hit parity with the dollar for the first time in two decades. Overall, over the last decade, the euro lost ground against the dollar, on the back of lower interest rates and weaker economic growth prospects than the U.S.

Harmonized consumer price inflation averaged 2.1% in the ten years to 2022. The 2022 average figure was 8.7%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

Germany Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) for Germany from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Germany.

Germany Inflation Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 1.4 0.4 3.2 8.7
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.7 1.5 -0.7 5.7 9.6
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 1.1 -1.0 10.5 32.9

Base effect pushes up inflation in December

Harmonized inflation increased to 3.8% in December, up from November’s 2.3% but slightly lower than the market had been expecting. The acceleration was largely due a low base of comparison created by the one-off state subsidies for energy bills introduced in late 2022. Annual average harmonized inflation fell to 6.0% in December (November: 6.5%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose to 3.7% in December, from the previous month's 3.2%, while core inflation dipped to 3.5% in December, from 3.8% in November. Lastly, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.24% over the previous month in December, contrasting the 0.71% drop seen in November. December's result marked the highest reading since August.

Our panelists expect harmonized inflation to average around Q4 2023 levels in Q1 2024, before declining more sharply in H2 2024 on weak domestic demand and the lagged impact of past ECB rate hikes. That said, inflation is only seen returning to the ECB’s 2.0% target in 2025, with energy prices this year expected to exceed pre-Ukraine war levels. Further commodity-price spikes and wage-price spirals pose upside risks.

ING’s Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, commented: “The weakening of demand as a result of higher interest rates should lead to actual price drops in the coming months […]. However, on the other hand, the German government’s measures to close the 2024 funding gap in the budget will insert new upward pressure on inflation. The return of the limited VAT [to normal levels…,] the increase in CO2 emission pricing, the introduction of a plastic tax, a flight tax and the end of energy price caps are new inflationary drivers in 2024. As a result, we expect German inflation to hover around 3% YoY in 2024, with risks clearly tilted to the upside.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects German inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 37 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for German inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our German inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of German inflation forecasts? Send an email to

Latest Global Inflation News

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest