Iran skyline

Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

The economy has seemingly performed poorly so far this year. Non-oil activity is likely being hit by sky-high inflation, rising unemployment, interest rate hikes and strikes. In addition, exports to China—Iran’s main trading partner—tumbled 39% in January–April, and oil prices are currently down by over a fifth from their mid-Q4 levels, which will be weighing on government coffers. Oil output was up just 1.9% year on year in January–April but has risen in sequential terms so far this year. In politics, following the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia earlier this year, at end-May Iran’s supreme leader voiced his support for the resumption of ties with Egypt. Talks between the two countries are set to take place in June. That said, the economic benefits from warming relations with Arab neighbors will likely be limited as long as tough U.S. sanctions remain in place.

Iran Inflation

Inflation dipped to 54.6% in May from 55.5% in April. Price pressures continued to be stoked by the weak parallel-market rial, a large monetary expansion and last year’s elimination of the subsidized exchange rate. The Consensus is for inflation to average the second-highest in the region this calendar year on the weak parallel-market currency and high money supply growth.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Iran from 2013 to 2022.

Iran Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 81.1 82.1 83.1 84.0 84.8
GDP (USD bn) 487 246 242 196 289
GDP per capita (USD) 6,005 3,001 2,909 2,327 3,410
GDP (IRR tn) 16,736.4 21,627.1 27,364.0 40,791.4 66,774.5
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 16.2 29.2 26.5 49.1 63.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 -1.8 -3.1 3.3 4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.6 -1.7 -4.8 0.5 3.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.8 -1.7 -5.8 -0.9 8.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -0.5 -15.4 -7.0 3.2 0.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.5 -4.4 -17.3 -12.8 5.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 -26.3 -32.5 -29.7 24.1
Industry (ann. var. %) 2.3 -9.1 -9.7 7.8 3.2
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 3.67 3.81 3.28 2.19 2.02
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.1 12.1 10.7 9.6 9.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -1.6 -4.5 -5.8 -4.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 45.0 42.9 46.7 48.3 42.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 22.0 22.1 28.2 38.4 41.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.9 37.4 27.8 44.8 34.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.0 18.0 40.0 30.5 43.6
Exchange Rate (IRR per USD, eop) 32,447 37,755 42,025 42,025 42,024
Exchange Rate (IRR per USD, aop) 31,107.8 34,401.1 42,076.4 42,025.4 42,025.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 15 26 -2 -1 11
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.1 10.7 -0.7 -0.4 3.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 22.2 30.8 1.9 3.2 15.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 96 93 60 50 79
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 74 62 58 47 64
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.2 -3.5 -35.3 -16.9 59.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.4 -16.2 -6.1 -19.8 36.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 5 2 2 1 1
International Reserves (USD bn) 113 122 15 14 18
International Reserves (months of imports) 18.3 23.8 3.1 3.5 3.3
External Debt (USD bn) 7 6 5 5 10
External Debt (% of GDP) 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.8 3.6

Free Sample Report

Interested in Iran economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest