Montenegro

Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

Following an acceleration in year-on-year GDP growth in Q1, momentum seemingly waned in Q2. Merchandise exports and industrial production both contracted, on average, in the quarter. Moreover, merchandise imports growth cooled, hinting at weaker domestic demand. More positively, inflation fell notably. Moving to the current quarter, a sharp rebound in merchandise imports and a further decline in inflation in July bode well for activity. In politics, in mid-August, President Jakov Milatovic nominated Milojko Spajic, leader of the pro-European Europe Now Movement, as prime minister-designate with a mandate to form a government. On 26 August, Spajic announced that he had reached an agreement with several parties, giving him the support of 44 MPs in the 81-seat parliament. He has until 10 November to get parliamentary approval.

Montenegro Inflation

Inflation fell to 6.9% in July from June’s 7.5%, marking the lowest print since February 2022. Softer increases in prices for food, clothing and footwear, and housing and utilities, as well as a sharper decline in transport prices, drove the result. Inflation will continue to slow but remain high ahead this year amid protracted pass-through effects.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Montenegro from 2013 to 2022.

Montenegro Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP (USD bn) 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.9 6.2
GDP per capita (USD) 8,845 8,909 7,684 9,417 10,011
GDP (EUR bn) 4.7 5.0 4.2 5.0 5.9
GDP per capita (EUR) 7,497 7,959 6,740 7,966 9,524
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 8.5 6.2 -15.5 18.4 19.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.1 4.1 -15.3 13.0 6.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 3.1 -4.6 4.0 9.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 14.7 -1.7 -12.0 -12.3 -1.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 23.6 -6.1 -0.9 5.7 -1.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 18.7 15.3 19.1 22.4 17.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -2.9 -10.2 -2.0 -4.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 71.9 78.8 107.4 86.6 71.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 0.4 -0.3 2.4 13.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -0.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -17.0 -14.3 -26.1 -9.2 -12.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.7
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.4 3.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.0 6.8 -12.2 28.6 45.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.8 1.8 -19.0 19.0 40.7
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8
International Reserves (EUR bn) 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.9 6.5 11.0 8.2 6.8
External Debt (EUR bn) 6.8 7.7 9.2 8.9 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 146 155 221 180 -

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