Montenegro Economic Outlook
A small, tourism-dependent economy:
Montenegro’s economy is heavily reliant on tourism, which contributes over 20% of GDP. The country’s Adriatic coastline has made it a popular destination for international visitors, particularly from Russia and Western Europe. However, this reliance makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
High public debt and foreign investment dependency:Montenegro has accumulated high levels of public debt, largely due to large-scale infrastructure projects, including a controversial highway financed by Chinese loans. While foreign direct investment (FDI) has supported real estate and tourism, the country remains dependent on external capital to sustain growth.
Limited industrial and agricultural output:Unlike some of its Balkan neighbors, Montenegro lacks a significant industrial base or agricultural sector. The economy is largely service-oriented, with banking and real estate playing important roles. Energy production, particularly hydroelectric power, holds potential but requires further investment.
Montenegro’s economic outlook:Montenegro’s economic growth is expected to remain tied to tourism and real estate, but high debt levels pose a long-term risk to fiscal stability. Strengthening domestic production, diversifying exports, and improving public sector efficiency will be critical for sustainable economic growth. Progress toward EU membership could provide momentum for needed reforms and investor confidence.
Montenegro's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 7.5 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 11,894 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 62% of overall GDP, manufacturing 4%, other industrial activity 28%, and agriculture 6%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 74% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18%, fixed investment 27%, and net exports -19%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 26% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 37%, food 14%, ores and metals 16% and agricultural raw materials 7%, with other categories accounting for 0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 10%, food 24%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 1 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 4 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.3% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Montenegro, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Montenegro's fiscal deficit averaged 4.4% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 16.8% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Montenegro's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.0% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Montenegro inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Montenegro's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 6.34%, down from 9.39% a decade earlier. See our Montenegro monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2012 to end-2022 the euro weakened by 11.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the euro, click here.
Economic situation in Montenegro
Annual GDP growth edged down in Q3 from Q2 due to slowdowns in private consumption, public spending and fixed investment. Moreover, exports dropped at a sharper clip. Turning to Q4, the economy seemingly fired on all cylinders. Industrial output posted a sharp rebound from Q3’s slump. Additionally, retail sales, merchandise exports and tourist arrivals all rose at faster rates. Heading into 2025, a downtick in economic sentiment in January points to cooling momentum. In other news, in late January, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced a EUR 35 million loan to power grid operator CEDIS to aid digitalization. The project is expected to reduce outages to around one-sixth of the current level and allow new renewable energy sources to be integrated into the grid, boding well for economic activity and the green transition.Montenegro Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.44 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 12 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Montenegro in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 44 economic indicators for Montenegro from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Montenegro economy. To download a sample report on the Montenegro's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.